Big 12 College Football Picks: #16 TCU Horned Frogs at #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys

#16 Texas Christian Horned Frogs at #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, September 23, 2017, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -10 1/2
Current Line: Oklahoma State -12 1/2
Opening Total: 68
Current Total: 71 1/2
Opening Money Line: OSU -460 / TCU +360
Current Money Line: OSU -500 /  TCU +400

Oklahoma State opens Big 12 play at home against TCU in battle of top 16 teams.

Both the Oklahoma State Cowboys and TCU Horned Frogs are 3-0 as they open Big 12 play against each other in Stillwater Saturday. Both are also ranked in the top 16 in the polls. THe Horned Frogs are number #16 and the Cowboys are #6.

Oklahoma State leads the series 15-10-2, including 8-3 in Stillwater. The Cowboys won last year in Fort Worth 31-6. The Horned Frogs have not won in Stillwater since 1991.

TCU is coached by Gary Patterson. The Horned Frogs have home wins over Jackson State 63-0 and SMU 56-36 last week, plus a road win at Arkansas 28-7. Against rival SMU, TCU trailed 19-7 early in the second, but would still win by 20 points. The Horned Frogs are 1-2 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. TCU was a 22 points favorite against SMU and the total was 65.

Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have a home win over Tulsa 59-24, plus road wins at South Alabama 44-7 and Pittsburgh last week 59-21. The Cowboys led 49-14 at halftime against Pittsburgh. OSU is 3-0 ATS and the total is 2-1 this season. Against Pittsburgh, Oklahoma State was a 10.5 favorite and the total was 66.

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TCU is outscoring teams 49-14 this season.  TCU is #7 nationally in scoring and #22 in points allowed. The Horned Frogs average 507 yards per game on offense including 277 passing and 230 rushing yards. The Horned Frogs are #40 or better in  all categories nationally. TCU allows 265 total yards on defense including 173 passing and 92 rushing yards. TCU is in the top 30 nationally in all three categories. The Horned Frogs are -1 in turnovers with 6 giveaways. TCU averages 68 penalty yards per game and opponents average 37 yards per game. The Horned Frogs are 26/43 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 13/47. TCU has forced 8 sacks and allowed 4 this season. The Horned Frogs are 11/13 scoring in the red zone with 11 touchdowns and opponents are 4/7 with a touchdown. TCU has three defensive touchdowns this season.

TCU quarterback Kenny Hill has completed 75% of his passes for 737 yards with 8 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions, along with 17 carries for 46 yards. Shawn Robinson has thrown for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns, and also has 3 carries for 43 yards.

Running back Darius Anderson has 42 carries for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kyle Hicks has 23 carries for 128 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches for 29 yards. He is listed as doubtful for undisclosed reasons. Sewo Olonilua has 18 carries for 107 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kenedy Snell and Grayson Muehlstein will also get some carries. Snell also had a rushing touchdown and a  touchdown catch.

Receiver Desmon White has 9 catches for 126 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jalen Reagor has 6 catches for 126 yards and a touchdown. KaVontae Turpin has 12 catches for 118 yards and a touchdown, plus 2 carries for 37 yards and a rushing touchdown. Shaun Nixon has 7 catches for 79 yards and a touchdown. John Diarse has 7 catches for 61 yards. Ty Slanina is probable with an undisclosed injury.

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Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 54-17 this season. The Cowboys are #4 in scoring nationally and #34 in points allowed. The Cowboys average 620 yards per game on offense including 407 passing and 213 rushing yards per game. OSU is #2 in total offense and #7 in passing. On defense, OSU allows 333 yards per game including 203 passing yards and 129 rushing yards. The Cowboys are +2 in turnovers with 6 takeaways. Oklahoma State averages 35 penalty yards per game and opponents average 46 per game. The Cowboys have converted 24/42 on third and fourth downs and opponents are 25/56. OSU has  forced 7 sacks and allowed 4 this season. The Cowboys are 13/15 scoring in the red zone with 9 touchdowns, and opponents are 5/8 with 4 touchdowns. OSU has two defensive touchdowns.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has completed 72.3% of his passes for 1,135 yards with 11 touchdowns and an interception, and he also has 2 rushing touchdowns. He is a Heisman contender. Back-ups Keondre Wudtree and Taylor Cornelius have taken a  few snaps as well in the three blowout wins for the Cowboys.

Running back Justice Hill has 37 carries for 250 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 9 catches for 58 yards. J.D. King has 30 carries for 194 yards and a touchdown. La’Darren Brown has 19 carries for 138 yards and a touchdown.

Wide receiver James Washington has 13 catches for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marcell Ateman has 13 catches for 235 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jalen McCleskey has 12 catches for 179 yards with 3 touchdowns. Dillon Stoner has 11 catches for 142 yards and a touchdown. Chris Lacy and Tyron Johnson each have five catches. Johnson was suspended for the last game and is questionable Saturday as well.  Two linebackers are listed as questionable or out for the Cowboys.

TCU is 5-1 ATS against teams with winning home records, 5-2 in road games, 3-7 on fieldturf, 2-5 after gaining 450 yards or more, 2-7 in Big 12 games and in September, 1-4 against teams with winning records, after allowing 450 yards or more, and overall, 1-5 after a straight up win, 1-7 after passing for 280 yards or more, and 0-4 after allowing 280 passing yards or more. The under is 4-1 in this series recently.

Oklahoma State is 6-0 ATS after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 4-0 after passing for more than 280 yards, and overall, 5-1 against teams with winning records and on fieldturf, 4-1 after scoring 40 points or more, after gaining more than 450 total yards, and after a win by 20 points or more, 6-2 after a straight up win and in September. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series. The Cowboys have covered four of the last five games against the Horned Frogs.

TCU is averaging 49 points a game, but as strange as it seems I don’t think they want to try to match OSU score for score. The consensus is that the Big 12 will come down to Oklahoma or Oklahoma State, but TCU could make a statement with an upset win on the road. I think it will be close but I like the Cowboys to win at home.

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