Big 12 College Football Picks: #10 Baylor Bears at #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys

#10 Baylor Bears at #6 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, November 21, 2015, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Boone Pickens Stadium – Stillwater, Oklahoma
Opening Line: Oklahoma State -1
Current Line: Baylor -3 (+100)
Opening Total: 81
Current Total: 77
Opening Money Line: OSU -115 / Baylor -105
Current Money Line: Baylor -145 / OSU +125

Oklahoma State hosts Baylor in huge Big 12 contest.
Oklahoma State hosts Baylor in huge Big 12 contest.

The 10-0 Oklahoma State Cowboys are one of five undefeated teams left. The Cowboys host the 8-1 Baylor Bears Saturday in one of two monster games in the Big 12. TCU travels to Oklahoma on Saturday. Oklahoma State leads the conference at 7-0. Oklahoma and TCU are both 6-1 and Baylor is 5-1. All four teams are competing for the conference title, but also for at least a shot at one of the four playoff spots.

Oklahoma State leads the series 19-14 against Baylor including 13-7 in Stillwater. The Bears won 49-28 last year in Waco. Baylor has not won in Stillwater since 1939.

Baylor is coached by Art Briles. The Bears have road wins over SMU 56-21, Kansas 66-7 and Kansas State 31-24. Baylor has home wins over Lamar 66-31, Rice 70-17, West Virginia 62-38 and Iowa State 45-27 along with a neutral site win against Texas Tech 63-35 in Arlington, TX. Baylor suffered their first loss of the season last week at home to Oklahoma 44-34.

Baylor was a 1.5 point favorite against Oklahoma and the total was 76. There was heavy rain for most of the game. Both teams missed extra points in the first half. Oklahoma would take a 20-13 lead into halftime. The Bears tied it up early in the third, but Oklahoma scored 14 straight points and would never trail again. Baylor pulled to within 37-34 with just over 10 minutes left. Oklahoma scored again to go up 44-34 with 4:47 left. The Sooners had 511 total yards to 416 for Baylor. The Bears had three turnovers to one for the Sooners. Baylor is 4-4 ATS and the total is 6-3 this season.

Oklahoma State is coached by Mike Gundy. The Cowboys have road wins over Central Michigan 24-13, Texas 30-27, West Virginia 33-26 in overtime, Texas Tech 70-53 and Iowa State 35-31 last week, along with home wins over Central Arkansas 32-8, UTSA 69-14, Kansas State 36-34, Kansas 58-10 and TCU 49-29.

OSU was an 11.5 point favorite against Iowa State and the total was 56.5. The Cyclones led 24-7 in the first half. Cowboy fans had flashbacks to 2011 when undefeated OSU lost in Ames in a mid-November contest. The Cyclones led 31-21 going into the fourth, but the Cowboys would score 14 points in the fourth to escape with the four point win. OSU is 6-4 ATS and the total is 6-4 as well.

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Baylor is outscoring teams 55-27 this season. The Bears lead the nation in scoring. Baylor is averaging 638 yards per game on offense including 346 passing and 292 rushing yards. The Bears lead the nation in total offense, are #5 in rushing and are #11 in passing. Baylor is allowing 402 total yards per game on defense including 229 passing and 173 rushing yards. The Bears have forced 22 turnovers and has 13 of their own. The Bears average 85 penalty yards per game and opponents average 72. Baylor is 74/139 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 63/162. The Bears have forced 19 sacks and allowed 11 this season.  Baylor is 46/51 scoring in the red zone with 40 touchdowns and opponents are 24/27 with 19 touchdowns. The Bears have a defensive touchdown this season and have allowed a kick return for a touchdown.

Quarterback Seth Russell has completed 59.5% of his passes for 2,104 yards with 29 touchdowns and 6 interceptions, and has rushed for 402 yards on 49 carries with 6 touchdowns. Russell suffered a season ending neck injury in the Iowa State game. Freshman Jarrett Stidham is the new starter. He has thrown for 1,007 yards with 11 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and also has 2 rushing touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury.

Running back Shock Linwood has 155 carries for 1,149 yards and 9 touchdowns, plus 8 catches and a touchdown. Terence Williams has 61 carries for 417 yards and a touchdown. Johnny Jefferson has 61 carries for 399 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 3 catches. Devin Chafin has 46 carries for 205 yards and 5 touchdowns.

Receiver Corey Coleman has 61 catches for 1,229 yards and 20 touchdowns. Jay Lee has 29 catches for 627 yards and 7 touchdowns. K.D. Cannon has 34 catches for 564 yards and 4 touchdowns. Four defensive players are listed as questionable or out.

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Oklahoma State is outscoring teams 44-25 this season. The Cowboys are #7 in scoring nationally. OSU averages 497 yards per game including 353 passing and 144 rushing yards. The Cowboys are in the top 17 nationally in total and passing offense but #99 in rushing. On defense, Oklahoma State is allowing 393 total yards per game, including 236 passing and 158 rushing yards. OSU is +12 in turnovers with 24 takeaways. Oklahoma State averages 54 penalty yards per game and opponents average 71. The Cowboys are 73/151 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 72/181. OSU has forced 35 sacks and allowed 23 this season. The Cowboys are 45/48 scoring in the red zone with 34 touchdowns. Opponents are 25/31 with 19 touchdowns. The Cowboys have two defensive touchdowns along with two special teams touchdowns and have allowed two as well this season.

Quarterback Mason Rudolph has completed 64.4% of his passes for 3,161 yards with 18 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, and has a rushing touchdown.  J.W. Walsh has thrown for 335 yards with 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and has 50 carries for 226 yards and 10 rushing touchdowns.

Running back Chris Carson has 108 carries for 446 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 9 catches. Rennie Childs has 62 carries for 259 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 6 catches. Raymond Taylor has 41 carries for 262 yards and 4 touchdowns. Jeff Carr has 33 carries for 136 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver James Washington has 40 catches for 820 yards and 7 touchdowns. David Glidden has 45 catches for 714 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marcell Ateman has 33 catches for 590 yards and 5 touchdowns. Jalen McCleskey has 20 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Sheperd has 16 catches for 248 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jeremy Seaton, Jhajuan Seales, and Austin Hayes will also get some catches. Five defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Baylor is 8-3 ATS against teams with winning home records, 15-6 against teams with winning records, 9-4 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 18-8-1 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 2-5 on fieldturf, and 0-4 in November. The under is 5-2-1 in this series recently.

OSU is 4-0 on fieldturf, 6-1 against teams with winning records, 13-3 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 4-1 in Big 12 games, and overall, 9-3 in November, 36-16 after passing for more than 280 yards, 17-8 after failing to cover, and at home, 35-17 after a straight up win, and after gaining more than 450 total yards. The favorite is 12-4 ATS in this series and the home team has covered four of the last five in this series. The Cowboys are 13-3 ATS against the Bears recently covering the last 8 games in Stillwater between the teams.

Oklahoma State seems to play to the level of their competition. They have overcome early double digit deficits against Texas Tech and Iowa State. The Cowboys can’t afford to do that against Baylor. The difference in this game will be if OSU can stop the Baylor rushing attack. I think they contain it just enough and take a close win at home to set up the biggest Bedlam game ever against Oklahoma next week.

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