AAC College Football Picks: Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls

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Memphis at South Florida

Time: 2:30 PM CST, Sat

Spread: MEM -14.5

Total: 59.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Memphis Tigers are 9-1 and tied with SMU for the lead of the AAC-West. The Tigers will travel to Tampa to face South Florida this week as heavy 14.5-point favorites at 3 PM CST Saturday on ESPNU. The over/under is set at 59.5 total points according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes.


Memphis has won four straight since losing 28-30 to Temple five weeks ago, its only loss of the 2019-20 season. The Tigers have dominated its opponents, scoring 41.5 per game while giving up just under 26. Its pass offense is top-20 at 297.7 yards per game, and it is nearly in the top-40 of rush attacks with 183.3 per game.

The Tigers are getting amazing production from its quarterback Brady White. He has totaled 2,852 yards on the season with a 67.4 percentage, 28 touchdowns, and just five interceptions. White has not been good with his rush attempts, generating -50 yards on his 36 tries, but the rushing of Kenneth Gainwell has more than made up for it. The No. 1 rusher has 1,166 yards this season on 175 carries (6.7 per) and has 12 of the team’s 21 rushing touchdowns. No. 2 rusher Kylan Watkins trails him with just 314 yards and three touchdowns.

Memphis top-six receivers have all done work. Six Tigers total over 200 receiving yards on the year, paced by Demonte Coxie who leads the team in catches (48), yardage (765) and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns (7). Antonio Gibson leads the team in yards-per-catch at 25.0, and he has 574 yards on just 23 catches with his seven touchdowns.

Memphis has 28 receiving touchdowns on the season while averaging 15.2 yards-per-catch as a team.

Kicker Riley Patterson has been superb. He has hit 98 percent of his PATs and 12 of 14 field goals, with one of his two misses coming from beyond the 50-yard-line (where he is still 2 of 3 on the year, with a long-kick of 50-yards).


South Florida is 4-6 with a 2-4 mark in AAC play.  It has dropped its last two games (to Temple and No. 17 Cincinnati). The Bulls are No. 4 in the AAC-East, but it is behind a 4-2 Temple team it is accustomed to finishing higher than. USF will have its work cut out for it recruiting.

The Bulls have been mediocre in most aspects of football this season. It allows 26.4 points per game, but it scores just  25.9, and its rush attack is middle-of-the-pack at No. 56, while it ranks in the bottom fifth of all passing teams at 187.5 yards per game.

The Bulls have had its struggles in the pocket. Of its four utilized Abs (mostly Jordan McCloud and Blake Barnett), South Florida has thrown just 56 percent for completion and has eight interceptions on the season. McCloud has 12 touchdowns to six INTs, but he has been sacked 28 times for 150 lost yards. McCloud has some success as a rusher, with his 250 yards on 87 attempts and four touchdowns. Jordan Cronkite has largely carried the team with his 5 yards per, and 686 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Even so, USF is about average as a rushing team in averaging 4.5 yards-per-carry.

The Bulls do have eight players with 100 or more receiving yards on the season, but the leader is tight end Mitchell Wilcox with just 338 yards on the year. Wilcox, Randall St. Felix, and Bryce Miller have all caught 20 passes or more and all total 200-plus yards. USF has 18 receiving touchdowns on the season and averages 11.6 yards-per-catch.

Field goal kicking has been a problem with Spencer Shrader and Coby Weiss combining to have hit just 50 percent, 6 of 12. There has not been a made field goal from beyond 40-yards the entire season for the Bulls.

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