West Region Third Round Handicapping Selections: #7 Oregon Ducks vs #2 Wisconsin Badgers

2014 NCAA Tournament
West Region – Third Round

BMO Harris Bradley Center – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
#7 Oregon Ducks vs #2 Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, March 22, 2014, 7:45 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Wisconsin -4
Current Line: Wisconsin -5 1/2
Opening Total: 142
Current Total: 146
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -215 / Oregon +185
Current Money Line: Wisconsin -260 / Oregon +220 

Wisconsin is a 5.5 point favorite against Oregon Saturday in the West region third round in MIlwaukee.
Wisconsin is a 5.5 point favorite against Oregon Saturday in the West region third round in MIlwaukee.

On December 30, both the Oregon Ducks and Wisconsin Badgers were 13-0 and ranked in the top 10 in the AP poll. Neither would be ranked by the end of January, as Wisconsin went 4-4 in the month and Oregon went 2-6. Both teams would later go on 8 game winning streaks to get back on track. Now the 24-9 Ducks and 27-7 Badgers meet in the West Region third round Saturday in Milwaukee. The winner between #7 seed Oregon and #2 seed Wisconsin will face either #6 Baylor or #3 Creighton in the West Regional semifinals next week in Anaheim.

Oregon went 10-8 in the Pac 12. The Ducks were part of a 5 way tie for third in the conference. Oregon lost to UCLA 82-63 in the Pac 12 quarterfinals. The Ducks beat #10 seed BYU 87-68 in Thursday’s second round.

Wisconsin tied with Michigan State at 12-6 for second in the Big Ten behind Michigan. The Badgers lost to Michigan State in the Big Ten semifinals. Wisconsin crushed #15 seed American 75-35 in the second round Thursday.

Wisconsin leads the series 3-2 against Oregon. The Badgers have won two straight games in the series but they haven’t played since 1990. The last Oregon win against Wisconsin came in 1981.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses at Colorado, and at home to California, Stanford, at Oregon State, at Washington, UCLA twice, at Arizona and at Arizona State. Oregon has key home wins over San Francisco, Pacific, Cal Poly, Illinois (in Portland), UC-Irvine, BYU, USC twice, Oregon State twice, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State and Arizona, over Georgetown in South Korea, plus road wins at Ole Miss, Utah, Washington State, and UCLA.  The Ducks are 18-11-3 ATS and the total is 16-15 this season.

Oregon is outscoring teams 82-74 this season. The Ducks are #11 nationally in scoring, but #279 out of 351 teams in points allowed. Oregon is shooting 46.8% from the field and 39.1% from 3 point range. The Ducks are #22 in three point shooting. Oregon is #7 in free throw shooting nationally at 76.6% from the line. Duck opponents are shooting 44.2% from the field and 32.3% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 34.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 29.9. The Ducks average 14.4 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 7.9 steals and 3.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 12.3 assists, 13.8 turnovers, 5 steals and 3.9 blocks per game.

Ducks’ guard Joseph Young averages 18.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Mike Moser averages 13.5 points, 8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 1 block per game. Guard Jason Calliste averages 12.4 points, 2 rebounds and 1.7 assists.  Guard Damyean Dotson averages 9.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists. Guard Johnathan Loyd averages 7.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game.Forward Richard Amardi averages 6.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1 steal a game. Forward Elgin Cook averages 6.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game.  Dominic Artis and Waverly Austin will also get significant minutes. Guard A.J. Lapray (hip) and forward Brian Crow (ankle) are both out indefinitely.

Wisconsin is coached by Bo Ryan. The Badgers have losses at Indiana, Michigan, at Minnesota, Northwestern, Ohio State at Nebraska, and Michigan State. Wisconsin has key wins over St. John’s in Sioux Falls, SD, Florida, at Green Bay, Bowling Green, Oral Roberts, Saint Louis and West Virginia both in a tournament in Cancun, at Virginia, Marquette, Milwaukee, at Northwestern, Iowa twice, Illinois twice, Purdue twice. Michigan State, Minnesota twice, at Michigan, Indiana and at Penn State. The Badgers are 18-16 ATS and the total is 18-15 this season.

Wisconsin is outscoring teams 74-65. The Badgers are #48 in points allowed nationally. Wisconsin is shooting 45.8% from the field and 37.3% from 3 point range. The Badgers make 74.4% of their free throws. Wisconsin is #30 in free throw shooting nationally. Badger opponents are shooting 43.2% from the field and 34.3% from 3 point range. Wisconsin averages 33.5 rebounds per game and opponents average 29.2 per game. The Badgers average 12.1 assists, 8.1 turnovers, 5 steals and 3.5 blocks per game. Opponents average 9.7 assists, 9.9 turnovers, 4.2 steals and 2.9 blocks per game.

Forward Frank Kaminsky averages 13.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.7 blocks per game. Guard Ben Brust averages 12.9 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Forward Sam Dekker averages 12.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 1.3 assists.   Guard Traevon Jackson averages 10.4 points, 3.6 rebounds and 3.9 assists. Guard Josh Gasser averages 9.2 points, 3.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Forward Nigel Hayes averages 8 points and 2.8 rebounds per game. Duje Dukan, Bronson Koenig,  and George Marshall will also get significant minutes in the rotation.

Oregon is 4-0 ATS in NCAA Tournament games, 3-0-1 against Big Ten teams, 8-1-1 in neutral site games, 6-1-1 overall, 4-1-1 against teams with winning records, 6-2-1 in Saturday games, 18-6-3 after a straight up win, 29-10-3 after a cover, and 20-7-1 in non-conference games.

Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS in non-conference games, 5-1 in neutral site games, 4-1 in NCAA Tournament games, 2-6 after a cover, and 0-4 after a straight up win.

Talk about a contrast in styles. Oregon is among the leaders nationally in possessions at around 70 per game. Wisconsin is near the bottom at around 60 per game. Oregon would like this game in the high 70’s while the Badgers are fine playing it in the 50’s. I think Wisconsin controls the tempo and frustrates the Ducks. I like the Badgers to advance.

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