2015 NCAA Tournament
West Region Third Round
#1 Wisconsin Badgers vs #8 Oregon Ducks
CenturyLink Arena – Omaha, Nebraska
Sunday, March 22, 2015, 7:45 pm Eastern, TV: TruTV
Opening Line: Wisconsin -12
Current Line: Wisconsin -12
Opening Total: 140
Current Total: 143
Opening Money Line: Wisconsin -1000 / Oregon +700
Current Money Line: Wisconsin -900 / Oregon +600
For the second straight season, the 32-3 Wisconsin Badgers and 26-9 Oregon Ducks meet in the third round of the NCAA Tournament. Last season, Wisconsin beat Oregon 85-77 en route to the program’s third Final Four. The Badgers hope history repeats itself as the teams meet in the West region Third Round Sunday in Omaha. The winner between #1 seed Wisconsin and #8 Oregon will face the #4 seed North Carolina Tar Heels in the regional semifinal next week in Los Angeles.
Wisconsin leads the series against Oregon 4-2. The Ducks haven’t beaten the Badgers since 1981.
Oregon went 13-5 in the Pac 12 and tied for second with Utah. The Ducks advanced to the Pac 12 Championship game last Saturday in Las Vegas but were crushed 80-52 by Arizona, the third time this season the Ducks lost to Arizona by at least 18 points. Oregon beat Oklahoma State 79-73 in the second round Friday. Oregon is also making their third straight tournament appearance and the 13th overall. Oregon is 4-6 against tournament teams this season.
Wisconsin won the Big Ten by two games at 16-2. The Badgers won the Big Ten Tournament by beating Michigan State 80-69 in overtime in the championship game. Wisconsin beat Coastal Carolina 86-72 Friday in the second round. The Badgers are making their 17th straight trip to the tournament and 21st overall. Wisconsin went 13-2 against NCAA Tournament teams this season.
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Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have neutral site losses to Michigan and VCU in Brooklyn, and to Arizona in the Pac 12 tournament, home losses to Ole Miss and Arizona, plus road losses to Washington State, Washington, Arizona and UCLA. Teh Arizona loss last week snapped a 7 game winning streak for the Ducks. Oregon has home wins over Detroit, Toledo, Portland State, CS-Northridge, UC-Santa Barbara, UC-Irvine, Oregon State, Arizona State, USC, UCLA, Washington, Washington State, Colorado and Utah, neutral site wins over Illinois in Chicago, Colorado and Utah in the Pac 12 Tournament, and road wins over Arizona State, USC, California, Stanford, and Oregon State. Oregon is 19-15 ATS and the total is 16-17 this season. Oregon was a 1 point underdog against Oklahoma State and the total was 136.
Wisconsin is coached by Bo Ryan. The Badgers have a home loss to Duke and road losses to Rutgers and Maryland. The Badgers have won 17 of the last 18 games, including 7 straight. Wisconsin has key home wins over Green Bay, Boise State, Buffalo, Penn State, Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa, Indiana, Northwestern, Illinois, Minnesota and Michigan State, neutral site wins over UAB, Georgetown and Oklahoma in a tournament in the Bahamas, Michigan, Purdue, and Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament plus road wins over Marquette, Milwaukee, Cal, Northwestern, Michigan, Iowa, Nebraska, Penn State, Minnesota and Ohio State. The Badgers are 18-16-1 ATS and the total is 16-19 this season. Wisconsin was a 20 point favorite over Coastal Carolina and the total was 131.5.
Oregon is outscoring teams 76-71 this season. The Ducks are #26 nationally in scoring. Oregon shoots 46.1% from the field and 36% from the field. The Ducks make 76% of their free throws and are #13 nationally in that category. Opponents are shooting 42.1% from the field and 33% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 36.4 rebounds per game and opponents average 31.4 per game. The Ducks average 14.2 assists, 11.8 turnovers, 5.7 steals and 4.3 blocks per game. Opponents average 12 assists, 11.6 turnovers, 5.6 steals and 2.7 blocks per game.
Joseph Young averages 20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds and 3.7 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Elgin Cook averages 13.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1 steal per game. Dillon Brooks averages 11.5 points, 4.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game. Dwayne Benjamin averages 8.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.1 steals per game. Jalil Abdul-Bassitt averages 8.2 points, and 1.8 rebounds per game. Three other players average around 20 minutes a game.
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Wisconsin is outscoring teams 72-56. The Badgers are #7 nationally in points allowed. Wisconsin is shooting 47.6% from the field including 34.8% from 3 point range. The Badgers are #25 nationally in field goal percentage. Wisconsin makes 75% of their free throws and is #20 nationally in the category. Opponents are shooting 41.6% from the field and 34.9% from 3 point range. Wisconsin averages 34 rebounds per game and opponents average 25.3 per game. The Badgers are #3 nationally in rebounds allowed. Wisconsin averages 12.3 assists, 7.5 turnovers, 4.5 steals and 3.6 blocks per game. Opponents average 8.1 assists, 10.3 turnovers, 3.9 steals and 1.8 blocks per game.
Wisconsin forward Frank Kaminsky averages 17.7 points, 8.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game. He is probable for personal reasons. Sam Dekker averages 13.1 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists per game. Nigel Hayes averages 12.1 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game. Guard Traevon Jackson averages 9.4 points, 1.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1.1 steals per game. Jackson is out indefinitely with a foot injury after missing the last 18 games. Josh Gasser averages 7 points, 3.5 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Duje Dukan, Bronson Koenig, and Vitto Brown will also get minutes in the rotation.
Oregon is 8-1 ATS overall, 6-1 after a straight up win, and against teams with winning records, 5-1 in NCAA Tournament games, 4-1 in neutral site games, 7-2 in Sunday games, 20-9-1 in non-conference games, and 39-18-3 after a cover.
Wisconsin is 4-0 ATS against Pac 12 teams, 4-1-1 against NCAA Tournament teams, 19-6-1 in non-conference games, and 12-4-1 in neutral site games.
Oregon would much rather play this game in the 70’s but Wisconsin will probably force them to play in the 60’s or perhaps the 50’s. Oregon will keep it close for awhile but Wisconsin will overpower them and pull away.