West Region Second Round Betting Picks: #10 BYU Cougars vs #7 Oregon Ducks

2014 NCAA Tournament
West Region – Second Round
Bradley Center – Milwaukee, Wisconsin
#10 Brigham Young Cougars vs #7 Oregon Ducks
Opening Line: Oregon -4 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -5 1/2
Opening Total: 162
Current Total: 158
Opening Money Line: Oregon -220 / BYU +190
Current Money Line: Oregon -240 / BYU +200

Oregon is a 5.5 point favorite over BYU in the West region second round in Milwaukee Thursday.
Oregon is a 5.5 point favorite over BYU in the West region second round in Milwaukee Thursday.

As recently as a couple of weeks ago, it wasn’t certain either BYU or Oregon would make the NCAA tournament. However both did and will will face off in the West Region second round in Milwaukee Thursday. The winner of the #7 Ducks and #10 Cougars will face the winner of #2 Wisconsin and #15 American in Saturday’s third round.

Brigham Young went 23-11 in the West Coast Conference. The Cougars tied for second in the conference at 13-5, two game behind Gonzaga. The Cougars lost to Gonzaga 75-64 in the West Coast Championship game. Many thought if BYU even got an at-large bid that they would be in one of the four play-in games. However, the Cougars were given a somewhat surprising #10 seed. The loss to Gonzaga snapped a 6 game winning streak for the Cougars. Last season, BYU missed out on the NCAA Tournament for the first time in six seasons. The Cougars did make a run to the semifinals of the NIT though.

Oregon went 23-9 overall and were 10-8 in the Pac 12. The Ducks were part of a 5 way tie for third in the conference. The Ducks began the season 13-0 but a 3-8 start in Pac 12 play put them firmly on the bubble. Oregon then won 8 straight games before losing to UCLA 82-63 in the Pac 12 quarterfinals. Oregon made a run to the Sweet 16 last season where they lost to eventual national champion Louisville.

Oregon leads the series against BYU 11-8. The two teams played earlier in the season. Oregon won 100-96 in overtime on New Year’s Eve in Eugene. In that game,  Oregon guard Jason Calliste scored 32 points off the bench. BYU guard Tyler Haws scored 32. The Cougars led by six with just under two minutes to play in the second half, but the Ducks forced overtime.

BYU is coached by Dave Rose. The Cougars have losses at Iowa State, to Wichita State in a tournament in Kansas City, at Massachusetts, at Utah, at Oregon, at Loyola Marymount, at Pepperdine, at Portland, at Gonzaga, and at Pacific. BYU has key wins over Weber State, at Stanford, Mount St. Mary’s, Texas in Kansas City, Utah State in Salt Lake City, North Texas, San Diego twice, Pepperdine, Loyola Marymount twice, San Francisco three times, Santa Clara twice, Pacific, St. Mary’s twice, Portland, and Gonzaga. BYU went 5-6 against NCAA tournament teams. The Cougars are 13-18 ATS and the total is 13-17 this season.

BYU is outscoring teams 84-77 this season. The Cougars are #3 nationally in scoring but #324 out of 351 teams in points allowed. BYU is shooting 46.7% from the field and 35.8% from 3 point range. The Cougars make 69% of their free throws. BYU opponents are shooting 42.8% from the field and 34.2% from 3 point range. The Cougars average 41.2 rebounds per game and opponents average 32.1 per game. BYU is #5 nationally in rebounding. The Cougars average 15.9 assists, 11.3 turnovers, 7.3 steals and 3.1 blocks per game. Opponents average 14.5 assists, 12.8 turnovers, 6.1 steals and 4.2 blocks per game.

Haws averages 23.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 1 steal per game. BYU’s chances to advance took a serious hit when guard Kyle Collinsworth tore his ACL in the WCC Tournament. Collinsworth averaged 14 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.7 steals per game. Guard Matt Carlino averages 13.7 points, 3.4 rebounds, 4.3 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. Forward Eric Mika averages 11.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1 assist per game. Guard Skyler Halford averages 7.2 points, 1.4 rebounds and 1 assist per game. Guard Anson Winder averages 6.5 points, 1.8 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game. Nate Austin, Frank Bartley IV, and Josh Sharp will also get significant minutes in the rotation.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses at Colorado, and at home to California, Stanford, at Oregon State, at Washington, UCLA twice, at Arizona and at Arizona State. Oregon has key home wins over San Francisco, Pacific, Cal Poly, Illinois (in Portland), UC-Irvine, BYU, USC twice, Oregon State twice, Washington, Washington State, Arizona State and Arizona, over Georgetown in South Korea, plus road wins at Ole Miss, Utah, Washington State, and UCLA.  The Ducks are 17-11-3 ATS and the total is 16-14 this season.

Oregon is outscoring teams 82-74 this season. The Ducks are #11 nationally in scoring, but #279 out of 351 teams in points allowed. Oregon is shooting 46.8% from the field and 39.1% from 3 point range. The Ducks are #22 in three point shooting. Oregon is #7 in free throw shooting nationally at 76.6% from the line. Duck opponents are shooting 44.2% from the field and 32.3% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 34.3 rebounds per game and opponents average 29.9. The Ducks average 14.4 assists, 11.7 turnovers, 7.9 steals and 3.4 blocks per game. Opponents average 12.3 assists, 13.8 turnovers, 5 steals and 3.9 blocks per game.

Ducks’ guard Joseph Young averages 18.6 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Mike Moser averages 13.5 points, 8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.2 steals and 1 block per game. Guard Jason Calliste averages 12.4 points, 2 rebounds and 1.7 assists.  Guard Damyean Dotson averages 9.7 points, 3.2 rebounds and 1.2 assists. Guard Johnathan Loyd averages 7.2 points, 1.8 rebounds, 4.7 assists, and 1.1 steals per game.Forward Richard Amardi averages 6.6 points, 3.9 rebounds and 1 steal a game. Forward Elgin Cook averages 6.3 points and 3.6 rebounds per game.  Dominic Artis and Waverly Austin will also get significant minutes. Guard A.J. Lapray (hip) and forward Brian Crow (ankle) are both out indefinitely.

BYU is 19-40 ATS in neutral site games, 4-9 in NCAA tournament games, 1-4 in Thursday games and after failing to cover.

Oregon is 7-1-1 ATS in neutral site games, 5-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 against teams with winning records, 19-7-1 in non-conference games, 5-2 in NCAA tournament games, 6-14-1 after failing to cover, 4-11 after a straight up loss, 3-9-2 in Thursday games, and 2-7 against WCC teams.

Neither one of these teams play much defense and both like run up and down the court. This should be a very high scoring entertaining game much like the game they played in December. The loss of Collinsworth hurts BYU obviously as he leads the Cougars in rebounds and assists.  I think Oregon wins but BYU keeps it close for awhile.

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