Week Ten Friday Night Pac 12 Betting: Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears

Washington Huskies at California Golden Bears
Friday, November 2, 2012, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, California
Opening Line: Cal -4 1/2
Current Line: Cal -4 1/2
Opening Total: 52 1/2
Current Total: 52 1/2
Opening Money Line: Cal -195 / Washington +165
Current Money Line: Cal -195 / Washington +165

Cal is a 4.5 point favorite against Pac 12 rival Washington Friday night in Berkeley. Both teams are desperate for a win.

The California Golden Bears and Washington Huskies meet for the 93rd time Friday night in Berkeley. The Huskies lead the series 50-38-4, and have won 3 in a row and 4 of the last 5 against the Golden Bears, including a 31-23 last year in Seattle. Though both teams are out of the Pac 12 North race, this game is important for both teams for bowl eligibility. Cal is 3-6 and must win out to go to a bowl, while Washington is 4-4 and must win 2 of their last 4 games.

Washington is 2-3 in the Pac 12 under coach Steve Sarkisian. The Huskies upset previously undefeated Oregon St 20-17 last week at home to snap a 3 game losing streak. Washington also has home wins over San Diego St 21-12, Portland St 52-13, and Stanford 17-13. The Huskies have road losses at LSU 41-3, Oregon 52-21, and Arizona 52-17, along with a 24-14 home loss to USC. The Huskies are 4-4 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season. Washington was  a 3 point underdog against Oregon St and the total was 49.

The Huskies are averaging 322.2 yards per game, including 196.1 passing yards and 126.1 rushing yards. Washington is 95th or worse in all three categories. On defense, the Huskies are allowing 386 yards per game, including 201.2 passing yards (#32 nationally) and 184.8 rushing yards per game. Washington is being outscored 28-21. The Huskies have forced 17 turnovers, and have a turnover margin of 0. The Huskies average 70 penalty yards per game and have allowed 23 sacks this year. Washington has forced 11 sacks. The Huskies are 47/132 on third and fourth down conversions, and 18/25 scoring in the red zone with 15 touchdowns. Husky opponents are 47/123 on third and fourth downs, and 22/27 scoring in the red zone with 14 touchdowns.

Washington quarterback Keith Price has completed 161 of 268 passes (60.1%) for 1,530 yards with 8 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He has been sacked 23 times through 8 games. The leaky offensive line is also why the running game has struggled. Two Husky offensive linemen are listed as out for the Cal game. Bishop Sankey has 147 carries, 666 yards and 9 touchdowns, and 18 catches for 106 yards. Running back Erich Wilson II has 25 carries, 140 yards and a touchdown. Running backs Jesse Callier and Deontae Cooper are both out for the season with knee injuries. Receiver Kasen Williams has 46 catches, 503 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has 40 catches, 478 yards and 3 touchdowns. Receiver James Johnson is out indefinitely with a wrist injury.Ten Huskies are listed as out against Cal.

Cal is 2-4 in the Pac 12 under coach Jeff Tedford who could be out of a job if the Golden Bears don’t make a bowl game. Cal has home losses to Nevada 31-24, Arizona St 27-17, and Stanford 21-3 along with road losses at Ohio St 35-28 , USC 27-9, and last week at Utah 49-27. The Golden Bears have home wins over Southern Utah 50-31 and UCLA 43-17, along with a 31-17 win at Washington St. Cal is 3-6 ATS and the total is 3-5 this season. The Bears were 1.5 point underdogs at Utah and the total was 45.

California is averaging 397.3 yards per game on offense, including 228.6 passing and 168.8 rushing yards. The Golden Bears are being outscored 28-26 this season.  Cal is -1 in turnovers, and  they have 19 turnovers. The Bears have allowed 37 sacks this season, and are averaging 76 penalty yards per game. Cal is 42/127 on third and fourth down conversions and 22/29 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns. On defense, Cal is allowing 416.8 yards per game, including 252.4 passing yards and 164.3 rushing yards. Cal is #89 against the pass and #80 in total defense nationally.  The Bears have forced 18 turnovers and 23 sacks this season. Cal opponents are 71/158 on third and fourth down conversions and 29/39 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns.

Cal quarterback Zach Maynard has completed 165 of 267 passes (61.8%) for 2,039 yards with 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. He also has 3 rushing touchdowns, but has been sacked 37 times. Running back C.J. Anderson has 82 carries, 513 yards and and 4 touchdowns, along with 11 catches for 120 yards and a touchdown. Isi Sofele has 109 carries, 477 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 64 yards Brendan Bigelow has 27 carries, 343 yards, and 2 touchdowns, along with 6 catches, 83 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Keenan Allen has 61 catches, 737 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 3 carries, 39 yards and a touchdown. Allen also has a punt return for a touchdown. Chris Harper, Bryce Treggs, and Richard Rodgers will also get some targets but Allen is main receiver. The Golden Bear linebacking corps has been decimated by injury with 7 listed as questionable or out Friday night.

Washington is 4-0 ATS in Friday games, 6-1 against teams with losing records, 1-5 after a straight up win and a cover, 2-11-1 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 0-7 in road games, and 0-5 on grass. The Huskies are 5-1 ATS in the last six against Cal.

Cal is 4-0 ATS in November, 3-7 overall, 2-5 after allowing less than 170 passing yards, 1-4 after a straight up loss, after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, and 1-6 on grass. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently, and 4 of the last 5 in Berkeley have gone over the total.

Neither of these teams are great on offense, and both struggle on defense. That is why they are middle of the road teams in the Pac 12. Washington plays much better at home, but honestly you don’t know what these two teams will do from week to week. Cal is coming off a bad game at Utah where they gave up 49 points to one of the nation’s worst offensive teams. I like Washington to pull off the mild upset on the road at Cal Friday.

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