Time: 7:20 PM CT
Spread: NE -3.5
Odds c/o 5dimes
The Kansas City Chiefs and the sensational rookie Pat Mahomes improved to 5-0 last week in knocking off the Jacksonville Jaguars. Everyone seems to be aboard the Mahomes train, but now Kansas City faces its toughest challenge thus far as it travels to New England to face the Patriots as 3.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 58 points, and the game will air at 7:20 PM CT on NBC.
Kansas City has the No. 11 rated pass offense and the No. 11 rush offense, but its scoring has been better still. The Chiefs are No. 2 at 35.0 points per game, and it holds its opponents to 25.8 (no. 19). Mahomes has thrown for 1,513 yards already at a 63.6 percent clip, and he threw his first two interceptions last week while having already racked up 14 touchdowns. He has been sacked just six times and has a passer rating 112.7.
People are simply going bonkers over Mahomes, and the unlimited upside of his arm leaves the Chiefs in a luxurious position moving forward. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been his top-two targets with 425 and 407 yards receiving, respectively, and both have scored three touchdowns. The Chiefs have 25 passing TDs on the season and Mahomes averages 8.6 yards-per-attempt. Kansas City is just a really dangerous offense, and Kareem Hunt is the workhorse in the backfield with 93 attempts for 376 yards. But it is really mostly due to teams fearing Mahomes and due to the great work by the Chiefs’ offensive line. They have created the holes and the coverage for this top-ranked scoring offense.
The New England Patriots have won two-straight in Weeks 4 and 5 over the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. But can they slow Mahomes and the Chiefs? New England does boast a top-10 defense responsible for holding opponents to just 21.6 points per game. Meanwhile, its offense has managed to get the job done with 26.6 points per game (No. 9, tie). The passing attack has lingered last just 244.4 per game, but New England is rushing for 113.0 yards per game (No. 13, tie) and it has been good in the red zone.
Tom Brady has thrown for 1,259 yards at a 67 percent clip, with 12 TDs and six interceptions. He has been sacked just six times but has lost 37 yards total on those plays. Sony Michel leads the team in rushing with 294 yards and two rushing TDs, but the Patriots have just four rushing TDs on the season, with one coming from Brady. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has led all receivers with 308 yards and a touchdown, but James White leads the way with four receiving TDs and a No. 2 best 270 yards on his team-high 32 receptions.
This week will be a tough challenge for the Patriots defense, and we actually like the underdog Chiefs to remain undefeated in what will be its biggest win of the 2018 season. This should be a tight affair as reflected by the 3.5-point spread, but Kansas City’s offense may just prove to be too much even for the Patriots strong ‘D.’