Week 6 NFL Sunday Night Odds: K.C. Chiefs at N.E. Patriots

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Kansas City at New England

Time: 7:20 PM CT
Spread: NE -3.5
Total: 58

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Kansas City Chiefs and the sensational rookie Pat Mahomes improved to 5-0 last week in knocking off the Jacksonville Jaguars. Everyone seems to be aboard the Mahomes train, but now Kansas City faces its toughest challenge thus far as it travels to New England to face the Patriots as 3.5-point underdogs. The over/under is set at 58 points, and the game will air at 7:20 PM CT on NBC.

K.C.

Kansas City has the No. 11 rated pass offense and the No. 11 rush offense, but its scoring has been better still. The Chiefs are No. 2 at 35.0 points per game, and it holds its opponents to 25.8 (no. 19). Mahomes has thrown for 1,513 yards already at a 63.6 percent clip, and he threw his first two interceptions last week while having already racked up 14 touchdowns. He has been sacked just six times and has a passer rating 112.7.

People are simply going bonkers over Mahomes, and the unlimited upside of his arm leaves the Chiefs in a luxurious position moving forward. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have been his top-two targets with 425 and 407 yards receiving, respectively, and both have scored three touchdowns. The Chiefs have 25 passing TDs on the season and Mahomes averages 8.6 yards-per-attempt. Kansas City is just a really dangerous offense, and Kareem Hunt is the workhorse in the backfield with 93 attempts for 376 yards. But it is really mostly due to teams fearing Mahomes and due to the great work by the Chiefs’ offensive line. They have created the holes and the coverage for this top-ranked scoring offense.

N.E.

The New England Patriots have won two-straight in Weeks 4 and 5 over the Miami Dolphins and Indianapolis Colts. But can they slow Mahomes and the Chiefs? New England does boast a top-10 defense responsible for holding opponents to just 21.6 points per game. Meanwhile, its offense has managed to get the job done with 26.6 points per game (No. 9, tie). The passing attack has lingered last just 244.4 per game, but New England is rushing for 113.0 yards per game (No. 13, tie) and it has been good in the red zone.

Tom Brady has thrown for 1,259 yards at a 67 percent clip, with 12 TDs and six interceptions. He has been sacked just six times but has lost 37 yards total on those plays. Sony Michel leads the team in rushing with 294 yards and two rushing TDs, but the Patriots have just four rushing TDs on the season, with one coming from Brady. Tight end Rob Gronkowski has led all receivers with 308 yards and a touchdown, but James White leads the way with four receiving TDs and a No. 2 best 270 yards on his team-high 32 receptions.

This week will be a tough challenge for the Patriots defense, and we actually like the underdog Chiefs to remain undefeated in what will be its biggest win of the 2018 season. This should be a tight affair as reflected by the 3.5-point spread, but Kansas City’s offense may just prove to be too much even for the Patriots strong ‘D.’

ATS TRENDS

Kansas City
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.
  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
  • Chiefs are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a straight up win.
  • Chiefs are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win.
  • Chiefs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in October.
  • Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
New England
  • Patriots are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on fieldturf.
  • Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
  • Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 16-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 36-14-2 ATS in their last 52 games in October.
  • Patriots are 35-14-2 ATS in their last 51 home games.
  • Patriots are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Patriots are 37-18-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up win.
  • Patriots are 35-17-2 ATS in their last 54 vs. AFC.
  • Patriots are 39-19-2 ATS in their last 60 games overall.
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