Week 6 NFL Picks ATS: Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys

Jacksonville at Dallas
Time: 3:25 PM CT
Spread: JAC -3
Total: 40

Odds c/o 5dimes

The Jacksonville Jaguars were the latest to fall victim to the Pat Mahomes train last week, dropping its week 5 matchup 14-30 to Kansas City to fall to 3-2 on the season. Jacksonville still sits atop the AFC South as it visits the Dallas Cowboys this week as 3-point favorites. The over/under is set at 40 points according to NFL oddsmakers at 5dimes, and the game will air at 3:25 PM (CT) on CBS.

JAX

Jacksonville went pass-heavy in Week 5, as Blake Bortles attempted 61 passes, but he only completed 33 of those, while also throwing four interceptions (with just one touchdown). Mahomes, however, was sensational. The rookie threw for 313 yards on the Jaguars defense, and the Chiefs also racked up 126 rushing yards. Jacksonville got 53 yards from T.J. Yeldon, and Bortles rushed for 34 yards, but it was overall a very poor performance from the Jacksonville offense and Bortles, in particular. Despite his 430 passing yards, the Jaguars only managed one receiving TD, caught by Yeldon, who had 69 receiving yards on the day. Donte Moncrief led all receivers with 76 yards on six catches, but he was targeted 14 times in the game. Jacksonville will need much better efficiency to prevail as favorites this week.

Bortles has had his struggles, though. Outside of last week’s four INTs, he has thrown three others, while having managed just eight TD passes on the season. His interception rate is 3.3 percent, while he has also been sacked 11 times through five games (2.2 per) for a total loss of 58 yards. The Former UCF quarterback does rank No. 2 on the team in rushing yardage with 166 yards and an impressive 7.5 yards-per-carry, but his accuracy must improve. Jacksonville has remained a winning team on the basis of its third-ranked defensive unit, responsible for surrendering only 17.2 points per game. It has allowed a mostly poor offense (20.4 per) to be viable, but with a middle-of-the-pack rush attack and a No. 12 pass offense, the Jaguars are hoping both those aspects improve before the postseason when it will need to muster much more than 20 points per contest most likely.

DAL

The Dallas Cowboys are 2-3 on the year but are a perfect 2-0 at home where it hosts the Jags today.

Das Prescott has thrown for 961 yards this season, but he averages just 6.7 yards-per-attempt and has thrown four interceptions to his five touchdowns. He has also been sacked 16 (!) times for a total loss of 101 yards. Prescott Ranks No. 2 on the team in rushing yardage at 121 yards per game and Ezekiel Elliot has been a monster out of the backfield.

The former Ohio State product has averaged 5.2 yards-per-carry on his team-leading 93 rush attempts. Elliot has two touchdowns and has rushed for 24 first downs. He has also caught 22 passes for 155 yards and a touchdown. Elliot is carrying this offense, but Jacksonville has the defense capable of putting a halt to it. Cole Beasley leads all Cowboys receivers with 193 yards on 17 catches, but Elliot has caught the most (22) and is the most feared performer for the Cowboys.

ATS TRENDS:

Jacksonville
  • Jaguars are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf.
  • Jaguars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 14 points.
  • Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
  • Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up loss.
  • Jaguars are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
  • Jaguars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
  • Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Dallas
  • Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 6.
  • Cowboys are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in October.
  • Cowboys are 3-10 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
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