Week 6 College Football Saturday Picks: South Florida Bulls at Connecticut Huskies

South Florida at UConn

Time: 11 AM CST, Saturday

Spread: USF -11

Total: 51.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

The South Florida Bulls fell to 1-3 last week with its 21-48 loss to SMU. South Florida has only defeated South Carolina State this year, and it is averaging 28.7 points per game while surrendering 31.8 per. Even so, the Bulls are 11-point favorites on the road over hosting UCONN in week 6 action. The over/under is set at 51.5 total points according to college football oddsmakers, and the game will kick off at 11 AM Saturday.

USF

South Florida has not been particularly good defensively this year. It was shutout 0-49 to Wisconsin in Week 1, a team that has shot up the rankings since its then-ranked No. 19 status. Even so, giving up 48 to SMU last week was a tough pill to swallow.

The Bulls have got competent if not unsensational play out of both its quarterbacks. Blake Barnett averages 51.9 percent passing with 434 yards and four touchdowns, with two picks. Jordan McCloud averages 57.4 percent with 395 yards and four touchdowns, and two picks. It is McCloud with the higher passer rating at 135.9, and he is the superior ground threat as the team’s leading rusher with 82 yards on his 28 attempts (just 2.9 per-carry). Barnett averages 2.7 per-carry with 63 yards on 23 tries. while lead running back Jordan Cronkite is good for just 2.3 yards-per-carry on his team-high 33 rushing attempts. South Florida tight end Mitchell Wilcox functions as the team’s greatest receiving threat with 178 yards on 10 catches. The No. 2 receiver is also out of the backfield with Johnny Ford having caught 13 passes for 149 yards. The top wideout is Bryce Miller who has caught just seven passes for 92 yards.

UCONN

The UConn Huskies are 1-3 with three straight losses to Illinois, Indiana, and then-No. 22 UCF last week. It knocked off Wagner 24-21 in Week 1. The Huskies have languished in its three losses surrendering 31, 38, and 56 points respectively while totaling just 47 itself over that stretch.

Starting quarterback Jack Zergiotis has had his struggles with a 58.1 percent mark on his passing but already four interceptions and eight sacks. He has a passer rating of just 95.7. He is a horrible rushing threat at -46 yards on his 14 tries, and the Huskies average just 2.9 yards-per-attempt as a team on its 151 carries. Kevin Mensah leads all rushers with 328 yards on two touchdowns, but he too averages just 4.0 yards-per-attempt. Cameron Ross leas all receivers in yardage with 206 yards on a touchdown, while running back Art Tompkins leads in total catches (14) but averages just 5.6 yards-per-catch. Tight end Jay Rose has caught 10 passes for 93 yards, as well.

The Huskies have three receiving touchdowns on the year, with Ross, Ariel Brown and Matt Drayton all having one to their name.

ATS TRENDS (C/o Covers):

South Florida
  • Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Bulls are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up loss.
  • Bulls are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
  • Bulls are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Bulls are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 conference games.
  • Bulls are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Connecticut
  • Huskies are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games in October.
  • Huskies are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games on grass.
  • Huskies are 18-43-2 ATS in their last 63 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
  • Huskies are 16-39-2 ATS in their last 57 games following a straight up loss.
  • Huskies are 18-45-2 ATS in their last 65 games overall.
  • Huskies are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 9-25-1 ATS in their last 35 home games.
  • Huskies are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS win.
  • Huskies are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
  • Huskies are 12-40-1 ATS in their last 53 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 7-24-3 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Huskies are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Huskies are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
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