Week 4 College Football Picks, Trends: Colorado Buffaloes at (24) Arizona State Sun Devils

College Football Betting

Colorado at Arizona State

Time: 9 PM CST Saturday

Spread: ARI -7.5

Total: 51.5

Odds c/o 5dimes

Arizona State is 3-0 after defeating then-No. 18 Michigan State in Week 3. It knocked off Kent State in Week 1 and Sacramento State in Week 2, but its Week 3 headlined what kind of football team the Sun Devils could be this season. It won 10-7 over the Spartans to claim a No. 24 AP Ranking of its own heading into week 4.

It will host Colorado as 7.5-point favorites at 9 PM CST Saturday on the PAC-12 network. The over/under is set at 51.5 total points according to college football oddsmakers at 5dimes.

AZ ST

Arizona State scored on a 1-yard TD rush by Eno Benjamin with 50 seconds to go to take a 10-7 lead and ultimately win the game. It was Benjamin’s lone rushing TD of the game, though he led all Arizona State rushers with 38 yards on his 11 attempts. Jayden Daniels threw 15 of 26 for 140 yards at QB, but he threw no receiving TDs. Daniels did rush 12 times for 37 yards, but the Sun Devils averaged just 2.9 yards-per-carry on its 26 attempts as a team.

The defense was decent, but it did allow 291 passing yards and 113 rushing yards. It held Michigan State to 3.2 yards-per-carry, and if not for Elijah Collins, the Spartans had little going for itself offensively. The Spartans did move the ball, but it ultimately failed to capitalize on out-gaining the Sun Devils in yardage as AZ State came through with the ‘W.’

Benjamin has 209 rushing yards on the season but he has needed 57 attempts to do it, averaging just 3.7 yards-per-carry. Daniels is not any better with just 2.4 per attempt and 75 yards on his 31 attempts. The Sun Devils need to do a better job of creating holes for both Benjamin and Daniels, to get more than three yards-per-carry from its ground game. Daniels has thrown 61 percent for completion with a 9.5 yard-per-attempt average, three touchdowns, and no interceptions.

If the Sun Devils can add some running punch to that accuracy and keep minimizing turnovers, this team could easily exceed expectations in 2019.

COL

Colorado is 2-1 after falling to Air Force 23-30 in Week 3. It defeated then-No. 25 Nebraska in Week 2, so it has been something of an up and down season already for the Buffaloes.

Colorado had a lot of trouble with Air Force star running back Kadin Remsberg. He rushed for 146 yards on 23 carries with a TD, while then the rest of the Falcons averaged 5.6 yards-per-attempt on 52 carries. Air Force uncharacteristically attempted 12 pass plays and picked up 155 yards on those, too. The Buffaloes got 220 yards from Steven Montez, but he threw for just 5.1 yards-per-attempt and had an interception to his two touchdowns. Colorado also averaged just 3.3 yards-per-carry on its 32 attempts, though lead running back Jared Mangham was effective in picking up 56 yards on his 10 attempts.

Montez was better against Nebraska when he threw for 375 yards and averaged nine yards per throw, but he threw a pick in that game, too, offset by three TD passes. Colorado struggled with its rush in the win over the Cornhuskers, though, picking up just 2.4 yards-per-carry. Mangham bailed out the Buffaloes with two TD runs, the only two rushing touchdowns the Buffaloes picked up. Montez rushed eight times for -17 yards.

Cutting down on the picks and getting more from its rush attack headline the checklist for Colorado in Week 4.

ATS TRENDS

Colorado
  • Buffaloes are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games.
  • Buffaloes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Buffaloes are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
  • Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Buffaloes are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Buffaloes are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
  • Buffaloes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
  • Buffaloes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Arizona State
  • Sun Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
  • Sun Devils are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
  • Sun Devils are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
  • Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Sun Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
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