Week 3 NFL Betting: Can the Lions break a 13-game skid at Minnesota?

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, 9/25/11, 1:00 PM EST, TV:  FOX
Opening Point Spread: Detroit -4
Current Betting Line:  Detroit -3.5
Opening Total:  43.5
Current Total:  45
Odds Courtesy of Bookmaker

Vikings Lions NFL Preview
Calvin Johnson and the Lions are just 3-7-2 ATS in the past 12 meetings with Minnesota.

A year ago, most NFL betting experts would have laughed at you if you told them the Detroit Lions were unbeaten and favored on the road against the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday in a key NFC North matchup.  A lot has changed so far in 2011, and nobody knows that more than the Vikings (0-2), who are still looking for their first victory after letting wins in their first two games slip away.

Minnesota got off to good starts at San Diego in the season opener and last week against Tampa Bay.  However, the team’s play after the intermission remains a major concern heading into this meeting with the Lions (-3.5, O/U 45), who have lost six of the last seven games between the teams and are 3-7-1 against the spread in the past 11.  They have also lost 13 straight at the Metrodome.

The Vikings have been outscored 41-3 in the second half this year after leading by double digits at halftime in each of their first two games.  They have not figured out a way to stop their opponents late in games, as Buccaneers running back LeGarrette Blount scored the game-winning touchdown last week with only 31 seconds left on the clock in a 24-20 loss.

Quarterback Donovan McNabb has had the opposite effect of Brett Favre in his first year in the Twin Cities, but he also has not received much help offensively from anybody other than running back Adrian Peterson.  McNabb ranks 30th in the NFL with a 71.3 passer rating, and his top receiver is Percy Harvin with 83 yards.  Harvin was dealing with an illness earlier in the week but is expected to play.

Minnesota is also expected to have defensive tackle Kevin Williams back to clog up the middle after serving a suspension for testing positive for a banned weight-loss drug two years ago.  Whether or not Williams can help slow down a fast-paced Detroit offense remains to be seen.

The Lions (2-0) have lived up to their preseason hype so far behind the passing of QB Matthew Stafford, who has looked like the top overall pick in the 2009 NFL draft.  Stafford ranks fourth in the NFL with a 112 passer rating and is trying to lead his team to its first 3-0 start since 1980.

Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson has caught four of Stafford’s seven touchdown passes and remains one of the toughest covers in football.  The Lions have been pass-heavy offensively with little to show from their running game, although Jahvid Best did find the end zone once last week in their 48-3 rout of Kansas City.

Both of Detroit’s first two games have gone OVER the total, but defense has been a big factor in the UNDER cashing in each of the past six meetings with the Vikings.  The losing team has scored more than 13 points only once in those six games.  However, the Lions are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games against NFC opponents with the OVER going 11-3-1 in their past 15 overall.

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