Week 13 NFL Betting Trend Report: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Week 4 NFL Betting Trend Report
Here is the week 13 NFL Betting Trend Report

Denver Broncos At KC Chiefs

Time: 7:20 PM EST

Spread: KC -14

Total: 51

Odds c/o 5dimes

 

The heavily-favored Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos.

While the Chiefs are two-touchdown favorites, the betting total is set at 51 combined points per the oddsmakers of bookmaker 5dimes.

The game will kick off at 7:20 PM (EST) on NBC.

KC News & notes:

Kansas City has been great offensively thus far, and its defense receives more than its fair share of credit, for both its recent improvements and its overall status, in allowing just 21.6 points per game. Offensively, KC is ranking No. 1 in passing yards per game at 314.5, while it ranks No. 18 via the rush at 111.3 per game. Overall, the Chiefs generate 31.6 points per game, ranking No. 2 in the NFL. Defensive woes were suspected to be an issue, but there have been precious few with the “D” performing as one of the top units in the league.

The Chiefs have been good at executing in close games, too. Kansas City was tied 24-24 at the half with the Raiders, but it was outscored 16-8 in the final quarter which amounted to the difference in the final total. Derek Carr of the Raiders threw for 347 yards and three TDs while the Raiders picked up another 144 yards on 35 carries.

The Chiefs got a fair game out of Pat Mahomes, in that outing, but he was certainly far from his best, throwing an interception, suffering three sacks, and completing just over 50 percent of his looks. The backfield and rush game was ineffective, generating just four yards-per-carry, though the Chiefs were able to utilize the ground game to manage a couple of rushing touchdowns, one from Mahomes and the other on a handoff to Tyreek Hill. The Chiefs seem to go, as Mahomes does.

Travis Kelce did work catching the ball, even so. He led the Chiefs last week in catches (eight), yardage (108), and he scored one of the team’s two receiving touchdowns. The Chiefs had four receiving options with 40 yards or better last week, but it also allowed the Raiders to work its air game, and the Chiefs secondary surrendered three touchdowns, one apiece to the top-3 Raiders passing options.

Mahomes thus far this season has thrown 68.8 percent for completion, but he averages just 8.3 yards-per-catch. He has thrown 30 TDs with just two interceptions, and his 14 sacks (1.3 per game) are tolerable, though 81-yards is a substantial loss on those plays.

Even so, Mahomes has a passer rating of 115.5, and he has rushed for 215 yards this season on 43 carries, managing five yards-per. Mahomes also ranks No. 2 on the team-lead in rushing touchdowns with two, while lead back Clyde Edwards-Helaire manages 4.6 yards-per-carry on his 151 attempts with four touchdowns and a team-best 35 first downs.

DEN News & notes:

The Denver Broncos are 4-7 and in third place in the AFC West, behind its opponent today, by six full games. The Chiefs lead the division, as much as Denver dwells in its cellar.

The Broncos began its 2020 season with three straight losses, and have been notably better since that point.

It has won just two of its last five, though. That is including an 18-12 win over the New England Patriots. The offense is still managing just 19 points per game, but the rush offense has been showing more signs and the team is still struggling to convert a good percentage of its third downs.

Adding in a mix of some miscues, some turnovers, and it has not equated to a good balance, not with the defense allowing 27.1 points per game itself. The differential is -8.1 points.

The Broncos have benefitted from Drew Lock being available and decent. He threw for 313 yards last week with two touchdowns, but he threw another interception, and he has had six of those this season already. He also managed just 6.5 yards-per-attempt, and the Broncos lost again 27-34 to the Atlanta Falcons.

These stats are all very telling: Lock ranks No. 30 in Quarterback rating at just 38.5 with his INTs exceeding his TDs,  his overall season outlook is hardly that good. Lock has rushed 24 times for just under four yards-per-attempt, but the Broncos are a team also rostering both Jeff Driskel and Brett Rypien. It remains to be seen how long it sticks with Lock as the starter. It is not as though it has any options capable of guiding a contending-caliber football team. Driskel was good as a Florida Gator and even at Louisiana Tech, but those systems were entirely centered around exploiting what he did well, and that does not really translate to the NFL level. Driskel is not talented enough to build around, nor is Lock, nor is Rypien. The Broncos are headed nowhere until the shelves are stocked with far more talent.

To this juncture, Lock has thrown just 55.6 percent for completion with 11 interceptions overshadowing his seven touchdowns. His passer rating of 67.5 is abysmal. So much for the hopes expressed. The Broncos have one of the worst pass offenses in the NFL, and Lock is mostly why.

Melvin Gordon III has rushed 4.1 yards-per-attempt on 134 carries this season, and he leads the team with six of the team’s nine rushing touchdowns. Phillip Lindsay has rushed at team-best 5.0 per-carry, and he has a 55-yard rush to his credit. The Broncos average 4.3 per-carry as a team, and it has averaged 113.5 rushing yards per game.

The top receiver is Jerry Judy who has caught just 37 of 78 targeted looks but leads the team with 589 yards. Tim Patrick leads in touchdowns with three, but Jeudy leads in first downs 29, to Patrick’s 22. Tight end Noah Fant has been big this season with 435 yards and two touchdowns, and he also ranks No. 3 in first downs with 18.

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