Week 11 NFL Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jacquizz Rodgers-falcons-2013Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Time: 1 PM ET, Sun Nov 17, 2013
Spread: PICK EM
O/U: 43.5

Odds courtesy of Bovada

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were finally able to claim their first victory last week with a 22-19 win over the Miami Dolphins. According to NFL oddsmakers at Bovada, the Bucs will have another real chance at victory in a game which has been rendered a “pick em,” between the Bucs and the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

The Falcons are just 2-7 on the season and haven’t won since a 31-23 victory over Tampa Bay on Oct 20. The team has struggled badly to generate offense via the rush, and Matt Ryan has had middling success at quarterback (91.0 QB rating). Jacquizz Rodgers and Steven Jackson both generate less than four yards per carry and Rodgers has the only two TDs between them.

To make matters worse, the Falcons defense has been porous and is allowing 126.8 yards via the rush and 252.0 via the pass. Over the three game skid the team is on, the Falcons have allowed 31.3 points per game, while mustering just 11 itself.

Tampa Bay has the third-to-worst pass offense in the league, generating just 188.7 yards per game. The Bucs’ Doug Martin has 456 yards on the season but just 3.6 yards per carry, while Mike James has been more efficient with 295 yards on 60 carries (4.9 yards per carry). Mike Glennon has had success airing it out to Vincent Jackson, who has 662 yards on 46 receptions and a team-high four receiving TDs. Jackson has been dealing with knee issues but is expected to play.

Atlanta Trends: UNDER 4-0 in last 4 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in previous game; 0-4-1 ATS in last 5 on grass; 0-4 ATS in last 4 road games.

Tampa Bay Trends: OVER 4-0 in last 4 vs NFC; OVER 5-0 in last 5 overall; 0-6 ATS vs teams with losing records.

Head-to-head: UNDER 4-1 in last 5 meetings in Tampa Bay; Favorite 4-1-1 ATS in last 6 meetings; Home Team 3-1-1 ATS in last 5 meetings.

Check our our paid pick plans for the remainder of the 2013-14 NFL season!

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