Week 1 NFL Odds: An Early Look For Value

The start of the NFL season is still three months away, but the major transactions have been made. There are still some question marks regarding suspensions and holdouts – read Ben Roethlisberger, the Williams Wall, and Albert Haynesworth – but there is enough information about the new teams for the bookies to release their lines.

While injuries can still change the fate of teams around, we have a first good idea of what the rosters will look like come September. And having NFL odds & lines available can only mean one thing: Looking for value early.

Here are the opening week1  lines from Bookmaker (all lines at -110 unless otherwise noted):

Sep. 9

Minnesota Vikings +4 at New Orleans Saints (total: 52)

Sep. 12

Carolina Panthers + 7 at New York Giants (40)

Miami Dolphins -2 at Buffalo Bills (38)

Atlanta Falcons PK at Pittsburgh Steelers (41)

Detroit Lions +6.5 at Chicago (42.5)

Cincinnati Bengals +6 at New England Patriots (44)

Cleveland Browns +1.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (36.5)

Denver Broncos +1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (42)

Indianapolis Colts -3 (-115) at Houston Texans +3 (-105) (47)

Oakland Raiders +7 at Tennessee Titans (41)

Green Bay Packers PK at Philadelphia Eagles (46)

San Francisco 49ers PK at Seattle Seahawks (38)

Arizona Cardinals -3.5 at St. Louis Rams (42.5)

Dallas Cowboys -3 (-125) at Washington Redskins (+105) (43.5)

Sep. 13

Baltimore Ravens +3 (-115) at New York Jets (-105) (37.5)

San Diego Chargers -6 at Kansas City Chiefs (45)

It is too early to make predictions on the games and judge which teams have improved from last season and which ones got worse. You don’t have a way of knowing what will happen in the remainder of the offseason, and there is too much time left to tell who will end up winning or losing in the NFL’s opening week.

While it is still too early to make NFL football picks for all the games, there is a reason why we look at the lines so early: the availability of lines.

There are a couple of chances to extract early value by betting NFL lines that most likely won’t be available come September. Early wagering offers a great way to avoid the key numbers 3 and 7 here.

The Patriots are favored by 6 in their opener at home against the Bengals. Watch this line move and most likely end up at 7 when we get closer to the start of the season. The same could be true for the game between the Bears and Lions.

A similar move can be expected for Dolphins’ game against the Bills. While the 2-point spread offers good value now, the line will most likely move to 3 by the time the season starts.

There is another game that offers early value. The Falcons are a pick against the Steelers, who will be playing without Ben Roethlisberger. This line might move with the Falcons ending up as the favorites, despite playing on the road against the bigger named team.

With talk about the replacement for Roethlisberger most likely picking up when it gets closer to the season, public perception could veer away from the big name Steelers and could make the Falcons the favorite for the game. Monitor this closely and time your selection wisely to avoid missing out on a good chance for value in this game.

Also, watch the Vikings line to change as Favre announces his decision on whether or not he will play. While this is a factor that you will play into your wager, expect the line to end up at the dreaded +3 if he plays and watch it jump all the way up to +7 if he decides to hang up his cleats for real.

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