Wednesday MLB Preview – Blue Jays at Yankees

Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez’s pursuit of 600 home runs is starting to wear on his teammates.

Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees

Toronto has captured the first two games of this series and the offense has managed to generate eight runs in each contest.  “We’re doing a good job offensively,” Jose Bautista said.  “We’re coming up with big hits when we need them and solo shots here and there.”  He hit his MLB-best 33rd home run last night in the ninth inning, as the Blue Jays have hit 23 of their 167 home runs during their current 8-3 stretch.  The pitching staff has held its own recently, ranking second in the American League with a 3.05 ERA since the All-Star break.  The team is now 5-3 against the Yankees this season and have won eight of their last 13 meetings dating back to last year.  Toronto stands at 22-16 versus division opponents (+1,010) and the total is 17-20 O/U in those contests.

Blue Jays starting pitcher Shaun Marcum is 10-4 with a 3.24 ERA in 20 starts this season and is riding a three-game winning streak.  In those outings, he has allowed four runs and 20 hits over 17.2 innings of work.  He has compiled a 6-2 record and 4.06 ERA in 11 road starts this season, picking up 54 strikeouts and issuing just 10 free passes.  The right-hander has made 11 daytime starts in 2010, posting a 6-1 record and 2.89 ERA, allowing opponents to hit for a .233 average.  In 10 lifetime games (eight starts) against the Bronx Bombers, Marcum is 1-3 with a 6.39 ERA.  He will be making his first career start at the new Yankee Stadium, after going 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA in six games at the old building.

New York has fallen back into second place in the AL East division and much of the blame is being placed on Alex Rodriguez.  The All-Star third baseman is in pursuit of hitting his 600th home run, but he is 9-for-46 in 12 games since hitting No. 599 on July 22.  “It’s hard to tell if a guy is pressing,” manager Joe Girardi said.  “Right now, he’s in a little funk.”  The Yankees as a whole have managed to hit just .169 in dropping four of five games and have fallen below the Rays for the first time since June 12.  New York still leads the majors with 571 runs scored this season and a run-differential of +130.  The club is 25-13 in day games this year (+360) and 94-58 over the last three seasons, while the total is 20-15 O/U in 2010.  The Bronx Bombers have cost backers cash as a home favorite of -175 to -200, going 7-6 in this situation (-430).

Yankees starting pitcher Phil Hughes is 12-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 19 starts this season, with the team alternating wins and losses over his last four outings.  He is coming off a 3-2 road loss to the Rays on July 30, giving up three runs and four hits over six innings of work.  The right-hander is 7-2 with an inflated 5.21 ERA in 11 home starts, surrendering 15 home runs in 65.2 frames.  He gave up three of those long balls to the Blue Jays just five starts back, but the Yankees came away with a 7-6 victory.  In 13 career games (six starts) against Toronto, Hughes is an even 1-1 with a 4.01 ERA.

Bettors must respect the Blue Jays’ 84-71 record in day games the last three years (+1,080), especially coming in with an even 4-4 mark as a road underdog of +150 to +175.  The Yankees stand at 19-8 at home when the total is 9 to 9.5 and the total is an incredible 20-6 O/U in those games.

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