WAC Attack: Hawaii at San Jose State Betting Preview

Hawaii Warriors AT San Jose State Spartans
Mar 3, 2011 at 10:30 PM EST
Opening Line: San Jose -3
Current Line:  San Jose -4.5
Opening Total:  138
Current Total: 138
Opening Moneyline:  San Jose -175 / Hawaii +155
Current Moneyline:  San Jose -200 / Hawaii +170

St. John's DePaul Big East Preview
San Jose State is a narrow favorite tonight

Tonight’s game brings together WAC Rivals Hawaii (17-10) and San Jose State (15-12).  Hawaii is currently 7-7 in WAC play, for fifth place in the conference, while San Jose State is 5-9 in WAC play to rank 7th in the conference.

Hawaii has won 5 of their last 6 games, with wins over Boise State, Nevada, UC Davis, Louisiana Tech, and New Mexico State.  Their lone loss over the stretch was to Idaho.  San Jose State has won 4 straight, with victories over Montana State, Weber State, New Mexico State, and Louisiana Tech.

San Jose State’s 73.8 points per game rank them 61st in the country in scoring and they are 44th in the nation in rebounding with 37.9 boards per game.  Despite scoring 73.8, they give up 73.2, so their win differential is still only +0.6.  Hawaii has been in a number of close games and despite being 7 games over .500 has only a +2.4 win differential, scoring 68.3 a game and giving up 65.9.  The combinative total of the teams’ offensive output is 142.1, slightly higher than the total set by college basketball oddsmakers.

Some betting trends:

Hawaii is 3-17 SU in their last 20 games on the road and the total has gone OVER in 6 of their last 7 games on the road.  Hawaii is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road against San Jose State and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii’s last 5 games on the road at San Jose State.

San Jose State is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and the total has gone OVER in 6 of San Jose State’s last 9 games.  San Jose State is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home and San Jose State is 3-13 SU in their last 16 games against Hawaii.  The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State’s last 6 games against Hawaii and San Jose State is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games against Hawaii.  San Jose State is 2-5 SU in their last 7 against Hawaii and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Jose State’s last 5 home games against Hawaii.

Hawaii is led by the tandem of Bill Amis and Zane Johnson, who both average 14.9 points per game.  The duo’s 29.8 points per game comprise 43.8% of Hawaii’s scoring.  Amis is a 6’9″ 235 pound senior forward who also leads the team in rebounding with 7.4 boards a game while swatting 2 shots a night as well.  Over the last 4 games, all Hawaii wins, Amis is averaging 16.8 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game.  6’6″ junior guard teammate Johnson is avearging 3.2 rebounds per game and shooting 41.1% from three (78 of 190).  Over the four game win streak, he is averaging 16.8 points per game as well, with a 32 point exclamation mark in a 14 point win over UC Davis. 6’10” sophomore center Vander Joaquim is also a strong inside presence with 9.7 points per game, 8.5 rebounds per game, and 1.2 blocks per game.  As he continues to develop, Hawaii’s interior strength will continue to develop and help further strengthen what is already becoming an imposing defense.

San Jose State is led by 6’4″ senior guard Adrian Oliver.  Oliver averages 24.3 points per game, 2.8 assists per game, 5.5 rebounds per game, while shooting 44.3% from the floor and 39.4% from three (50 of 127).  He has scored in double figures in all but one San Jose State game, and has had 14 games with 25 points or more, and of those 14 games, San Jose State has won 8 of the 14.  He has scored 30 or more in 3 of his last 5 games.  6’4″ senior guard Justin Graham will also make big contributions, as the guard averages 15.3 points per game this year and shoots an outstanding 42.9% from three (33 of 77).  He’s been pretty inconsistent and has had several real dud performances.  Over the last 4 games, all San Jose State wins, he has averaged 11 points per game.  He scored 17 on 5 of 11 shooting last game in the win over Louisiana Tech on February 26th.

Tonight’s game should be a good one.  If Oliver can get going early, it could be a long night for Hawaii and his strong play is a big reason for San Jose State being favored in this game.

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