Underdog Special: VCU vs. Indiana — College Basketball Betting Preview

Cody Zeller and the Hoosiers look to dispose of #12 seed VCU
VCU vs. Indiana
Tip off: IND -6
Spread: 139
Total: 139
M/L: IND -265, VCU +225

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VCU was the Cinderella of last year’s tournament. Despite finishing with a 28-12 record during the regular season, not too many took the Rams all that seriously, until they found themselves in the Final Four, where they lost to Butler by 8 points.

Why aren’t the Rams predicted to do the same this year? They lost four of their five starters, including Jamie Skeen. Without Skeen, the Rams have become one of the worst rebounding teams in this tournament, averaging only 33.7 rebounds per game.

They are led by the trio of Bradford Burgess, Juvonte Reddic, and Troy Daniels, who combine to average 33.9 points per game, roughly half of the Rams’ offensive output. Burgess has been a four year starter for VCU, and he’s taken on a bigger role in each of his seasons as a Ram. This year, he attempted six threes per game and banged them at a 36% clip. His outside shooting should make the

Rams an interesting team once again, as we all know that just because a team lives and dies by the three, doesn’t mean they will die by it…not in a short tournament where things can presumably go very
well for just enough games to win it all.

Amazing, however, is the fact that the Rams are 11-1 in games in which Burgess scores under 10 points. Perplexing as that stat is, it’s worth keeping an eye on, because just because Burgess stinks it up doesn’t mean that VCU is out of it.

Rams Betting Trends:

18-14 ATS last 32, 8-7 ATS when total is between 130 and 139.5, 14-5 ATS in March, 6-1 ATS in NCAA Tournament games, and 8-1 ATS vs teams with winning records after 16 gamers, 6-2 ATS in Saturday games.


Indiana closed out the season strong, before losing to #12 ranked Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game, giving up 13 threes to the Badgers on 26 attempts. They’re going to have to do a much better job of closing out shooters to advance very far in this tournament.
Three Hoosiers scored 17 points in the losing effort — Jordan Hulls, Christian Watford, and Cody Zeller.

Zeller, a 6’11? freshman, leads the team in scoring with 15.5 points per game, while also snagging a team high 6.4 boards per contest. He shot 5 of 9 from the floor against the Badgers, but somehow managed just one rebound after grabbing 10 the game before against Penn State. He has scored in double figures in the last four Hoosiers games, averaging 16.8 points per game over that span.

Zeller’s efforts are met by three other Hoosiers in double figure scoring, with Watford (12.0 per game), Hulls (11.5) and Victor Oladipo (10.9) rounding out the attack.
No Hoosiers player sees more than 30 minutes a game, though the Hoosiers stick to a pretty tight six man rotation, with Matt Roth, Derek Elston, and Tom Prichard seeing only fringe minutes.

Hoosiers Betting Trends:

18-9 ATS last 27, 12-6 ATS as a favorite, 4-0 ATS in Saturday games, 8-0 ATS in non-conference games, 12-8 ATS vs teams with winning records, the total has gone OVER In 16 of the 27 non-conference games and they are 5-7 ATS in neutral court games.

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