Tuesday Night MAC College Football Picks: Buffalo Bulls at Miami RedHawks

Buffalo Bulls at Miami RedHawks
Yager Stadium – Oxford, Ohio

Tuesday, November 19, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
Opening Line: Buffalo -25
Current Line: Buffalo -24 1/2
Opening Total: 48
Current Total: 48
Opening Money Line: Buffalo -2500 / Miami +1400
Current Money Line: Buffalo -2750 / Miami +1450

Buffalo is a 25 point road favorite at Miami Tuesday.
Buffalo is a 25 point road favorite at Miami Tuesday.

The Buffalo Bulls are 7-3 overall and 5-1 in the MAC East. The Bulls are tied with Bowling Green for the East Division lead. They play each other next week in Buffalo in a game that will likely decide the division title assuming the Bulls and Falcons don’t overlook their inferior opponents. Buffalo goes on the road to face the 0-10 Miami-(OH) RedHawks Tuesday night, while Bowling Green travels to 2-8 Eastern Michigan Saturday.

The Miami RedHawks are one of five teams without a win in FBS football along with Connecticut, Southern Miss, Hawaii, and Georgia State. The RedHawks are 0-6 in the MAC. Miami leads the series 12-3 against Buffalo, but the Bulls won last year in Buffalo 27-24.

Buffalo is coached by Jeff Quinn. The Bulls opened the season with road losses at still undefeated teams currently ranked in the top four nationally Ohio State 40-20 and Baylor 70-13. Buffalo then won seven straight games with home wins over Stony Brook 26-23 in five overtimes, Connecticut 41-12, Eastern Michigan 42-14, Massachusetts 32-3, and Ohio 30-3, along with road wins at Western Michigan 33-0, and at Kent State 41-21. The winning streak was snapped last Tuesday when Buffalo lost at Toledo 51-41. The Bulls are 7-3 ATS and the total is 7-3 this season. Buffalo was a 5.5 point underdog against Toledo and the total was 54.5.

Toledo jumped out to a 38-0 lead in the third quarter against Buffalo. The Bulls would mount a furious comeback in the fourth quarter trailing 38-14. The deficit was too much to overcome though and Toledo won 51-41. The Bulls had 601 total yards including 497 passing yards. The Rockets had 551 total yards including 323 rushing yards. The Bulls had two turnovers and the Rockets had one.

Buffalo is outscoring teams 32-24 this season. The Bulls are averaging 406.9 yards per game including 233.2 passing and 173.7 rushing yards. On defense, the Bulls are allowing 382.6 yards per game including 230.4 passing and 152.2 rushing yards. The Bulls are in the top 50 nationally in total defense, rush defense and points allowed. Buffalo is +14 in turnovers with 23 takeaways. The Bulls average 64 penalty yards per game and opponents average 60. Buffalo is 66/164 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 52/151. The Bulls have forced 28 sacks and allowed 10 this season. Buffalo is 32/38 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns and opponents are 23/31 with 15 touchdowns. Buffalo has three pick sixes and a kickoff return for a touchdown, and has allowed a fumble return for a touchdown.

Buffalo quarterback Joe Licata has completed 60.7% of his passes for 2,235 yards with 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Running back Branden Oliver has 238 carries for 1,225 yards and 12 touchdowns, along with 15 catches for 111 yards. Anthone Taylor has 60 carries for 231 yards with 3 touchdowns, along with 7 catches. James Potts has 52 carries for 182 yards. He is questionable with a shoulder injury after missing the last game.

Receiver Alex Neutz has 51 catches, 875 yards and 11 touchdowns. Fred Lee has 45 catches for 533 yards with 4 touchdowns. Devin Campbell has 14 catches for 153 yards, along with 2 rushing touchdowns and a kickoff return for a touchdown. Mason Schreck has only 14 catches for 108 yards but two of them went for touchdowns. Two defensive players are listed as questionable or out, along receiver Marcus McGill and running backs Boomer Brock and Jordan Johnson.

Mike Bath is the interim head coach at Miami. He replaced Don Treadwell earlier in the season. The RedHawks have road losses at Marshall 52-14, Kentucky 41-7, Illinois 50-14, Massachusetts 17-10, Ohio 41-16, and last Wednesday at Kent State 24-6, along with home losses to Cincinnati 14-0, Central Michigan 21-9, Akron 24-17 and bowling Green 45-3. Miami is 3-7 ATS and the total is 3-7 this season. The RedHawks were 19.5 point underdogs at Kent State and the total was 50.

Kent State took a 14-6 lead at halftime against Miami. The Golden Flashes would add 10 more points in the second half to win 24-6. The RedHawks had 164 total yards and 10 first downs. Kent State had 447 total yards including 300 rushing yards. Miami had two turnovers and Kent State had one.

Miami is being outscored 33-10 this season. The RedHawks are #98 in points allowed and #125 out of 125 teams in scoring. Miami is averaging 222.9 total yards per game (#125)  including 128.3 passing (#120) and 94.6 rushing yards (#118). On defense, the RedHawks are allowing 470.9 total yards per game including 248 passing and 222.9 rushing yards. Miami is #97 or worse in all three categories. The RedHawks are +3 in turnovers with 16 takeaways. Miami is averaging 37 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 49. The RedHawks are 38/146 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 68/133. Miami has forced 13 sacks and allowed 33. The RedHawks are 8/14 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns and opponents are 37/50 with 29 touchdowns. Miami has one defensive touchdown and has allowed two this season.

Miami quarterback Austin Boucher has completed 48.4% of his passes for 1,036 yards with 7 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, along with 107 carries for 76 yards. He is out for the season with a knee injury. Back-up quarterback  Drew Kummer has thrown for 174 yards on 14/34 passing and also has a rushing touchdown. He split snaps with  Austin Gearing against Kent State. Gearing  has 97 carries for 381 yards, and has also completed 12 of 21 passes for 73 yards with a pick.

Running back Spencer Treadwell has 50 carries for 158 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches. Grant Niemiec has 29 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown, along with 3 catches. Receiver Dawan Scott has 25 catches for 354 yards and a touchdown, along with 26 carries for 172 yards. David Frazier has  22 catches for 226 yards and 2 touchdowns. Steve Marck has 12 catches for 133 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Buffalo is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records, 7-1 after allowing more than 450 total yards, 6-1 overall, and on fieldturf, 5-1 in MAC games, 4-1 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 4-12-2 in November, 1-4-1 after a straight up loss, 1-4 after allowing 40 points or more, 1-5 after passing for more than 280 yards, and 0-3-1 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in this series recently.

Miami is 7-3 ATS against teams with winning road records, 3-7 at home, 2-5 after a straight up loss, after scoring less than 20 points, and after passing for less than 170 yards, 6-15-1 overall, 1-6 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 0-4-1 after a cover, 0-6 after allowing less than 170 passing yards. The over is 6-2 in this series recently and 5-0 in games in Oxford between the teams.

This could be a sandwich game for Buffalo considering they play Bowling Green next week. However, Miami is just awful in every phase of the game, so they might stay within the 24.5 point number, but they have no shot of winning. Especially without Boucher, the offense won’t score enough to keep up with Buffalo and the defense can’t stop them.

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