The Blue Jays are easily the best home underdog on Tuesday’s MLB card.
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Minnesota gets no break in traveling up north for a series against the Toronto Blue Jays, with the club carrying a disappointing 8-12 mark against the AL East division. The Twins also currently stand at 18-21 on the road this season (-210) and have dropped 13 of their last 19 away from Target Field. Offensively, the lineup will be led by the All-Star combination of catcher Joe Mauer and first baseman Justin Morneau. Mauer is hitting .388 in his last 14 games against the Blue Jays, while Morneau is a sizzling .354 with seven home runs and 26 RBIs in his last 25 meetings. Minnesota is an even 1-1 on artificial turf this season – the surface of the team’s old home the Metrodome.
Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano is 9-6 with a 3.30 ERA in 16 starts this season (+50), but the club dropped its first game in five outings with him on the mound last time out. In his last outing, he allowed three runs (two earned) and seven hits in 6.1 innings in a no-decision effort that the Twins dropped 5-4 at home to the Tampa Bay Rays. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA in seven road starts, issuing just five walks and striking out 29 batters in 51 frames. In 10 lifetime outings against the Blue Jays, Pavano stands at 3-5 wit ha 6.22 ERA (-220), including a 2-4 mark and 7.04 ERA in six starts at the Rogers Centre.
Toronto dropped the final two games of its road trip in the Bronx and now returns home to face off a team it has dominated in the past. The Blue Jays have won 15 of 19 versus the Twins and 12 of 16 at home. The offense continues to rely heavily on the long ball, as five of its six runs on Sunday came by way of the home run. Toronto has had 10 games this year with all runs produced by the long ball. After playing seven games on the road against the Indians and Yankees, the Blue Jays are in a prime spot to bounce back from back-to-back losses. The team is 4-1 in its last five home games following a road trip of seven or more days.
Blue Jays starting pitcher Jesse Litsch is looking for his first victory of the season, going 0-3 with a 6.98 ERA in his first four starts of the season. The right-hander has had two quality starts, but two forgettable ones in his short time on the mound in 2010. Toronto’s offense has also managed to score just seven runs in his outings thus far, including just a pair in his last two starts. Litsch has a great chance of breaking through this evening, bringing a perfect 3-0 record and 3.10 ERA in five career starts against the Twins into tonight’s appearance (+330). He is 10-8 with a 3.30 ERA in 24 lifetime starts at the Rogers Centre.
Playing the Twins as a road favorite of -125 to -150 has been a losing proposition, with the team going 3-4 this season (-230) and 14-15 the last three years (-670). Toronto has posted a solid 6-2 mark in games following an off day (+590) and has been consistently cashing tickets against right-handed starters all season (34-28, +970).
