2011 Kentucky Derby
Churchill Downs, Race #11, Louisville, Kentucky
1 1/4 miles, Flat Dirt Oval
Saturday, May 7, 2011, Post time 6:15 pm Eastern, TV: NBC
An already wide open field for the Kentucky Derby became even more so with Friday’s announcement that second betting choice Uncle Mo had scratched because of lingering effects of a stomach infection. To top it off, light rain is expected though the track is predicted to be Wet and Fast. Florida Derby winner Dialed In the favorite almost by default. Dialed In is trained by Nick Zito and ridden by Julien Leparoux. He opened as a 4/1 favorite on the morning line. For a complete list of the field, click here.
Now that we are less than 3 weeks weeks away from the first Saturday in May, all of the major prep races for the 2011 Kentucky Derby are complete. The 20 horse field is pretty much set. I will discuss the 10 horses who will most likely have the lowest odds once the post position draw and morning line odds come out Wednesday, May 4, 2011. For right now I will use the futures odds from bookmaker. In another article I will discuss the sleepers and longshots.
Is Super Saver going to win the Triple Crown? If you think he is then you can get odds ranging from +450 to +700 depending upon your book. That sounds attractive, but only if he stands a good chance of winning it all. So does he? In a word, no. It obviously could happen of course, but most smart bettors would happily bet against it. There are a lot of reasons I am so bearish on Super Saver, but here are six of the stronger arguments:
The more I look at this race, the more confused I get. It is far from a clear cut race – I could make a case for as many as nine horses of the 13 to win it (I’d leave out Luv Gov, Flying Private, Tone It Down and Take The Points, though of those the last is by far the most compelling). Let’s take a good look at the field, and then I’ll construct a superfecta ticket for kicks.
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