Statistics tell only part of the story when looking at totals. Some times, it’s the pace of the game or even the history of the series.  Take the Arizona State-California game. The total is a moderate 53 points. The over for Arizona State is only 2-2, but the Sun Devils have posted some good offensive numbers. They score 32.8 points and gain 455 yards on 76 plays. They allow 21.7 points and 403 total yards.  Cal also posts some decent numbers as it scores 32.2 points and gains 378 total yards on 64 plays a game. It allows 21.2 points.  Historically, the over has not fared well as in their last five meetings; the over is 1-4. Only twice in that span did they combine for more than 50 points.

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When looking at the totals, you have to take a lot of things into account. Not only offense, but defense, special teams, but also account for style of play and history of the series.  When Alabama travels to face South Carolina, it may be hard for them to get to the over for 48. Two of their last three meetings have gone under the total.  The over is 1-4 for Alabama, mainly because of their suffocating defense. The Tide scores 37.8 points a game, but gives up only 9 points game and 292 total yards.  The Gamecocks average 30.7 points, but rely on the ground game. They average 39 rushes and 168 rushing yards. For them to have success against Alabama, they will rush the ball and shorten the game. That points to an under.

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The total for the Stanford-Oregon game is a whopping 65.5 points. But that high total is warranted.  Their last five meetings have gone over the total. In those games, they failed to top 60 points only once. Stanford is averaging 48 points a game, while giving up 13.7. This season, the over for Oregon is 3-0 and the Ducks are averaging 57.7 points a game.  Both defenses have posted some good numbers, with the Ducks giving up 11 points and Stanford gives up 13.7 points. But this game is not have the feel of a defensive struggle, but which offense will exert its will.  At home, Oregon is averaging 695 yards on 89 plays. Stanford is averaging 467 yards and 69 plays. Nearly all indicators are pointing to an over for this game.

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