Southeast Region: (14) Wofford Terriers at (3) BYU Cougars

(14)  Wofford Terriers Vs. (3) BYU Cougars
Mar 17, 2011 at 7:15 PM EST
Opening Line:  BYU -8.5
Current Line:  BYU -8.5
Opening Total:  146.5
Current Total: 147
Opening Moneyline:  BYU -385 / Woff +325
Current Moneyline:  BYU -415 / Woff +345

Jimmer Fredette should have his way with the Wofford defense

BYU finds themselves up against another conference winning team in the Wofford Terriers.  Their 14-4 record against their very mediocre condition is impressive, but they only played one ranked opponent all year, and they lost that game by 15.  BYU has been tested.  They beat San Diego State twice by an average of 13 points per game.  The third game they lost to the Azteccs, however, by 18 points.  BYU lost the Mountain West tournament to San Diego State, however, and find themselves ranked third in the region.

Wofford closed the season with an 8 game winning streak.  None of their opponents were any teams of consequence and it’s difficult to imagine that they can handle that level of competition.  It’s just an example of how these teams don’t belong in the tournament and better temas gog to the NIT.  It never really completely makes sense.

Some betting trends:

BYU is 20-3 SU in their last 23 games.  BYU is 30-4 SU in this season and 13-16 ATS this year.  They average 81.6 points per game and give up 67.5, for a +14.1 differential.  BYU scores 81.6 points per game and only give up 67.5.  They dominated the Conference until their loss to San Diego State at the end.

Wofford is 4-8 ATS at home and 8-4 ATS away.  BYU is 6-10 ATS at home and 7-6 ATS away.

BYU is led by mega stud Jimmer Fredette.  Fredette averaged 28.5 points per game, 4.2 assists per game, and 3.5 rebounds per game.  He also managed 1.4 steals and shot 45.6% from teh floor and 89.1% from the line.  He played over 35 minutes a game and either scored or assisted 45% of all BYU’s points.  He has scored 30 or more 11 times and BYU is 9-2 in those games.  He has had high games of 52 points (against New Mexico) and 47 points (against Utah).  People are already comparing him with the likes of Mark Price.  He has a lot of lofty expectations to live up to, even to be the next Danny Ainge.  Fredette will succeed because he can do things Adam Morrison (the last big name from the conference) could not, namely lead a team.

Wofford has one standout player:  Noah Dahlman.  Dahlman, a 6’6″ junior forward leads the team in both scoring (20 points per game) and rebounding (5.5 rebounds per game).  He scored in double figures in every single Wofford game this season, and had two games with 30+ points  (37 against Elon and 33 against Xavier).  Over the last 8 games, all Wofford wins, Dahlman has averaged 18.8 points per game.  Their second best player is 6’1″ senior point guard Cameron Rundles.  Rundles is second in scoring with 14 points per game.  He scored 20+ in 8 games and Wofford won 6 of those 8 games.  He is a bit of a gunner.  He shot 5 or more three pointers in 23 of Wofford’s 33 games.  Certainly BYU will look to keep him off the three point line and force the less effcient long two point shots.

There really is no reason BYU should lose this game.  I realize they are only favored by 8.5 points, but Fredette is simply too good to let a team like Wofford keep him off his game.  He’ll come out focused in the first game of what I think will be a deep young by the BYU Cougars.

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