Shootout in the Big Apple: Orlando Magic at New York Knicks Betting Preview

Orlando Magic AT New York Knicks
Mar 23, 2011 at 8:30 PM EST
Opening Line:  Orlando -1
Current Line:  Orlando -1.5
Opening Total: 202.5
Current Total:  204
Opening Moneyline:  Orl -125 / NY +105
Current Moneyline:  Orl -120 / NY +100

Dwight Howard should have a big game on the boards tonight

Sometimes a move that looks to be for the future doesn’t pay off in the present.  Such seems to be the case for the 35-35 New York Knicks, who have gone just 7-9 since acquring Carmelo Anthony and Chauncey Billups.  The Knicks have lost their past 3 games, and the defense hasn’t been good.  Against Boston, the Knicks allowed the Celtics to score 23 of the game’s final 27 points en route to another Knicks’ loss.

The last meeting between the teams was similar.  The Knicks allowed the Magic to score 69 second half points and erase an 11 point half time defecit.  Neither team played good defense, but it turned out that the Knicks’ defense was ever so slightly worse, as the Magic went on to win by 6.  All 3 of New York’s “big 3” (Anthony, Stoudemire, Billups) had big games, but they didn’t get enough from the supporting role players to make up the difference.

Some betting trends:

Orlando is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 5 games.  Orlando is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games and they are 6-2 SU in their last 8 on the road.  Orlando is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on ther road and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 5 against New York.  Orlando is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against the Knicks and the total has gone OVER in 4 of their last 6 games in New York.  Orlando is 5-1 SU in their last 6 road games against the New York Knicks.

New York is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 games.  New York is 1-6 SU in their last 7 games and they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 against the Magic.  New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Orlando and the total has gone OVER In 4 of the last 5 against the Magic.  The total has also gone OVER in 4 of the Knicks’ past 6 games at home against the Orlando Magic.  New York is 1-5 SU in their last 6 at home against the Magic and they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games against the Magic.

Key Matchups:

Hedo Turkoglu / Brandon Bass / Dwight Howard vs. Carmelo Anthony / Amar’e Stoudemire / Jared Jefferies

What the Knicks plan to do on Dwight Howard here is a total mystery.  Jefferies, though 6’11”, is frail and thin, and has no chance at all to body up with Howard.  Amar’e is a poor defender for the most part and the Knicks can’t chance putting him into foul trouble by matching him up against Howard.  The result is going to be another huge game for Howard tonight, probably at least 30 points and 15 rebounds.  Anthony will give Turkoglu a lot of trouble, but fortunately for the Magic, Carmelo is not playing that well at the moment.  Bass has been big of late for the Magic, as he hit 9 of 10 shots last game against the Cavs, en route to 22 pionts and 6 boards.  His jumpshot is steady and reliable, and while he is undersized, he has been everything the Magic have needed since Otis Smith decided to go without a true backup center.  While Anthony and Stoudemire are both capable of having huge nights, the lack of a matchup against Howard obviously gives the Magic a huge edge in this game.

Tonight’s game has the potential to be very high scoring as both teams are very capable offensively and lately both have played poor defense.  The total, though high, may actually be set a bit low tonight, as I expect both teams to score near 110 points per game.

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