SEC College Football Picks: #17 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #10 Texas A and M Aggies

#17 Arkansas Razorbacks vs #10 Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, September 24, 2016, 9:10 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
AT&T Stadium – Arlington, Texas
Opening Line: Texas A&M -5 1/2
Current Line: Texas A&M -7
Opening Total: 51 (under -123)
Current Total: 50 1/2
Opening Money Line: Texas A&M -245 / Arkansas +205
Current Money Line: Texas A&M -275 / Arkansas +230

Texas A&M and Arkansas are both 3-0 as they meet Saturday in Arlington.
Texas A&M and Arkansas are both 3-0 as they meet Saturday in Arlington.

Both the Arkansas Razorbacks and Texas A&M Aggies are 3-0 as they meet Saturday in Arlington, Texas. Both teams look to challenge Alabama in the SEC West as LSU and Ole Miss have seemingly fallen off the pace early. Arkansas leads the series 41-28-3, but the Aggies have won four straight games in the series the last two by a touchdown in overtime. This is the first time since 2011 that both teams are ranked coming into the contest.

Arkansas is coached by Bret Bielema. The Razorbacks have home wins over Louisiana Tech 21-20 and Texas State 42-3 last week, plus a road win at TCU 41-38 in overtime. Arkansas is 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-2 this season. The Razorbacks were 28.5 point favorites against Texas State and the total was 60.5.

Texas A&M is coached by Kevin Sumlin. The Aggies have home wins over UCLA 31-24 and Prairie View 67-0, plus a road win at Auburn 29-16 last week to open SEC play. Texas A&M is 3-0 ATS and the total is 0-2-1 ATS this season. Texas A&M was a one point underdog at Auburn and the total was 55.5.

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Arkansas is outscoring teams 35-20 this season. The Razorbacks average 389 yards per game on defense including 218 passing and 171 rushing yards. On defense, Arkansas allows 323 yards per game on defense including 224 passing and 99 rushing yards. The Razorbacks are +1 in turnovers with 4 takeaways. Arkansas averages 40 penalty yards per game and opponents average 53 per game. The Razorbacks are 18/41 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 22/46. Arkansas has forced 10 sacks and allowed 6 this season. The Razorbacks are 14/16 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns and opponents are 10/11 with 7 touchdowns.

Quarterback Austin Allen has thrown for 655 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Running back Rawleigh Williams III has 71 carries for 354 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 3 catches. Kody Walker and Devwah Whaley will also get some carries.

Receiver Keon Hatcher has 11 catches for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns. Drew Morgan has 15 catches for 168 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Sprinkle has 9 catches for 97 yards and 3 touchdowns.

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Texas A&M is outscoring teams 42-13 this season. The Aggies are #25 or better in both categories. TAMU averages 531 yards per game including 294 passing and 237 rushing yards. The Aggies are in the top 25 in all three categories. On defense, the Aggies allow 357 yards per game including 226 passing and 131 rushing yards. Texas A&M is +3 in turnovers with 5 takeaways. The Aggies average 57 penalty yards per game and opponents average 47 per game. Texas A&M is 18/51 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 17/58. The Aggies have forced 12 sacks and allowed 3 this season. The Aggies are 15/17 scoring in the red zone with 8 touchdowns and opponents are 7/11 with 3 touchdowns.

Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight has been lighting it up at quarterback this season for the Aggies. He has thrown for 830 yards with 5 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 28 carries for 151 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jake Hubenak has also taken a few snaps.

Running back Trayveon Williams has 28 catches for 236 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 52 yards. Keith Ford has 32 carries for 155 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Receiver Josh Reynolds has 13 catches for 229 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christian Kirk has 18 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns. Ricky Seals-Jones has 9 catches for 128 yards.

Arkansas is 6-1 ATS in SEC games, 5-1 after a straight up win, 4-1 against teams with winning records and after gaining 450 yards or more, 11-4 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 5-2 after a cover, 20-8 overall, 7-3 after a straight up win of more than 20 points, 37-17 after scoring more than 40 points, and 3-7 in neutral site games. The Razorbacks are 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in September, 4-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 5-12 in neutral site games, 2-5 in SEC games, 1-5 against teams with winning records, after allowing more than 200 rushing yards and less than 170 passing yards.

This should be a another close game and a shootout as these two teams usually score a ton of points against each other. I think Texas A&M has a little more talent, but it wouldn’t shock me if Arkansas pulled off the upset.

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