SEC College Football Betting Preview: Georgia Bulldogs at Ole Miss Rebels

Georgia Bulldogs at Mississippi Rebels
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
Saturday, September 24, 2011, 12:20 pm Eastern, TV: SEC Network, ESPN Gameplan, MSG, Altitude
Opening Line: Georgia -10 1/2
Current Line: Georgia -10
Opening Total: 55
Current Total: 54
Opening Money Line: Georgia -375 / Ole Miss +315
Current Money Line: Georgia -350 / Ole Miss +290

The heat is on Mark Richt and the Georgia Bulldogs as they take on the Ole Miss Rebels in Oxford. Georgia is a 10 point favorite in a battle of two 1-2 teams.

Georgia and Mississippi meet for the 44th time Saturday in a rivalry that dates back to 1940. Georgia leads the series 30-12-1, and has won 8 straight games against the Rebels. However, the teams haven’t played since 2007.

Both teams are 1-2 this season and more importantly 0-1 in the rugged Southeastern Conference. The loser of this game will be in an 0-2 hole in the conference standings, which will be difficult if not impossible to overcome in the nation’s best conference. Georgia, under coach Mark Richt, crushed Coastal Carolina last week 59-0 after season opening losses to Boise St 35-21 and South Carolina 45-42. Both Boise and South Carolina are currently ranked in the top 12 in both polls. Mississippi, coached by Houston Nutt, lost to BYU 14-13, beat Southern Illinois 42-24, and last week lost 30-7 at Vanderbilt in the conference opener. Both Richt and Nutt could be on the hot seat if they have another disappointing season, especially Richt.

Georgia destroyed Coastal Carolina 59-0 last week and dominated in all phases of the game. Georgia had 470 total yards, including 194 rushing yards. Georgia had 23 first downs and was 11/21 on third and fourth down conversions. The Bulldogs did have a turnover but forced 3 turnovers on defense against the Chanticleers. Georgia held Coastal to 112 total yards, and 7 first downs in the shutout. The Chanticleers were 3/17 on third and fourth down conversions.

Georgia is averaging 426.3 yards and 40.7 points a game. Georgia is averaging 253.3 passing yards a game. They have 5 turnovers and have forced only one sack this season in three games. The Bulldogs are 19/50 on third and fourth down conversions. Georgia is holding opponents to 299 yards and 26.7 points a game. Georgia has turned the ball over 6 times already and has allowed 8 sacks. Bulldog opponents are 13/45 on third and fourth down conversions.

Georgia quarterback Aaron Murray is 53/84 passing with 672 yards, 9 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. Running back Isaiah Crowell has 47 catches for 264 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 3 catches for 52 yards and a touchdown. Crowell has more than double the carries of any other Bulldog rusher. Receiver Malcolm Mitchell has 14 catches for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. Orson Charles has 8 catches for 151 yards and 2 touchdowns. Tavarres King has 9 catches for 109 yards and 3 touchdowns. Six Bulldog players have at least one touchdown. kicker Blair Walsh is 15/15 on extra points and 3/5 on field goals with a long of 56 yards.

Mississippi had an awful day last week at Vanderbilt. Ole Miss had only 234 total yards including just 85 rushing yards in the 30-7. The Rebels scored late in the fourth to avoid the shutout. Ole Miss forced 3 Vanderbilt turnovers but Rebel quarterback Zack Stoudt threw 5 interceptions in the loss. Vanderbilt had 387 total yards including 281 rushing yards.

Ole Miss is averaging 252.3 total yards and 20.7 points a game.  The Rebels average 109 rushing yards. Mississippi has 8 turnovers and has allowed 8 sacks. Ole Miss is 11/39 on third and fourth down conversions. The Rebels really haven’t been that bad on defense giving up 374 yards and 22.7 points a game. The rush defense has struggled giving up 198 yards per game on the ground. Ole Miss has forced 4 sacks and 8 turnovers. Rebel opponents  are 20/46 on third and fourth down conversions.

Ole Miss Quarterback Zack Stoudt is 37/69 passing with 397 yards with 2 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. All 5 interceptions came in the Vanderbilt game. Running back Jeff Scott has 36 carries for 178 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 6 catches for 26 yards. Wide receiver Ja-Mes Logan has 11 catches for 154 yards. Donte Moncrief has 6 catches, 82 yards and a touchdown. Kicker Bryson Rose is 8/8 on extra points and 2/2 on field goals with a long of 29 yards.

Ole Miss is 1-2 against the spread this season and 2 of the 3 games have gone under the total. Georgia is also 1-2 ATS and all three of their games went over the total. The Bulldogs are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 following a straight up win and 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 conference games. Georgia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-5 ATS in the last September games and overall. The Rebels are 10-25 ATS in their last 35 September games and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 overall. The Rebels are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-5 in the last 6 following a straight up win and in conference games.

Ole Miss might be the worst team in the SEC other than perhaps Kentucky. Georgia has been the victim of a brutal schedule and is better than their 1-2 record would suggest. I like Georgia to win this game and cover rather easily.

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