SEC Betting Picks: #15 Texas A and M Aggies at #24 Ole Miss Rebels

#15 Texas A&M Aggies at #24 Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
Saturday, October 24, 2015, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Mississippi -4
Current Line: Mississippi -6
Opening Total: 66
Current Total: 65
Opening Money Line: Ole Miss -210 / TAMU +185
Current Money Line: Ole Miss -235 / TAMU +195

Ole Miss is a 6 point favorite against Texas A&M in SEC action.
Ole Miss is a 6 point favorite against Texas A&M in SEC action.

The only game between ranked teams this week in college football is between the #15 5-1 Texas A&M Aggies and #24 5-2 Mississippi Rebels, Saturday in Oxford. Both teams are 2-1 in SEC play and tied for third in the West Division behind LSU and Alabama. Texas A&M leads the series 6-1 against Ole Miss. The Rebels won last year in College Station 35-20.

Texas A&M is coached by Kevin Sumlin. The Aggies have neutral site wins over Arizona State 38-17 in Houston and Arkansas 28-21 in Arlington, plus home wins over Ball State 56-23, Nevada 44-27 and Mississippi State 30-17. Texas A&M lost last week to Alabama at home 41-23. This is the first time the Aggies will play outside the state of Texas this season.

The Aggies were 5 point underdogs against Alabama and the total was 54.5. The Crimson Tide jumped out to a 14-0 lead in the first, and would never trail. The Aggies would get no closer than 8 points for the rest of the game. Alabama took advantage of four Aggie turnovers with three pick sixes. Texas A&M had a punt return for a touchdown. Texas A&M is 4-2 ATS and the total is 3-3 this season.

Ole Miss is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels have home wins over UT-Martin 76-3, Fresno State 73-21, Vanderbilt 27-16, and New Mexico State 52-3. Mississippi has a road win at Alabama 43-37. The Rebels have road losses at Florida 38-10 and last week at Memphis 37-24.

Ole Miss was a 10 point favorite against Memphis and the total was 72. The Rebels scored 14 points in the first six minutes of the game but would only score 10 points for the rest of the game. After the early early 14-0 deficit, the Tigers scored 31 straight points to take control of the game. Memphis would lead 31-24 going into the fourth. The Tigers sealed the upset with two fourth quarter field goals to remain undefeated. The two teams combined for almost 1,000 yards of total offense. Ole Miss is 4-3 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season.

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Texas A&M is outscoring teams 37-24 this season. The Aggies are #27 in scoring and #55 in points allowed nationally. Texas A&M averages 453 yards per game on offense including 291 passing and 162 rushing. The Aggies are #31 or better in both total and passing offense. TAMU allows 378 yards per game on defense, including 183 passing and 195 rushing yards. The Aggies are #25 in pass defense but #96 in rush defense nationally out of 128 teams. The Aggies have ten turnovers and have forced seven this season. Texas A&M averages 46 penalty yards per game and opponents average 45 per game. The Aggies are 43/98 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 28/96. TAMU has forced 20 sacks and allowed 19 this season. The Aggies are 27/31 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns and opponents are 19/24 with 10 touchdowns. Texas A&M has a pick six and two punt returns for  touchdowns.

Quarterback Kyle Allen has completed 60.9% of his passes for 1,537 yards with 14 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, and has also rushed for 117 yards on 48 carries with 2 touchdowns. Kyler Murray has also taken a few snaps. He has thrown for 167 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions, and has also rushed for 92 yards on 18 carries.

Running back Tra Carson has 108 carries for 476 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 16 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown. Kwame Etwi has 15 carries for 124 yards. Brice Dolezal has 20 carries for 107 yards and a touchdown. James White is questionable with an ankle injury.

Receiver Christian Kirk has 39 catches for 609 yards and 4 touchdowns. Josh Reynolds has 21 catches for 439 yards and 3 touchdowns. Damion Ratley has 9 catches for 138 yards and a touchdown. Ricky Seals-Jones has 21 catches for 235 yards and 2 touchdowns. Speedy Noil has 7 catches for 83 yards and a touchdown. Jeremy Tabuyo has 4 catches for 49 yards and 2 touchdowns.

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Ole Miss is outscoring teams 44-22 this season. Mississippi is #7 in scoring and #39 in points allowed.  The Rebels are averaging 521 yards per game including 354 passing and 167 rushing. Ole Miss is #11 in total offense and #10 in passing nationally. On defense, Mississippi is allowing 359 yards per game on defense including 229 passing and 130 rushing yards. Ole Miss is #42 or better in total and rush defense. The Rebels have forced 13 turnovers and have 15 of their own. Ole Miss averages 58 penalty yards per game and opponents  average 48. The Rebels are 40/96 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 57/137. Ole Miss has 11 sacks and has allowed 13 this season. The Rebels are 29/34 scoring in the red zone with 21 touchdowns, and opponents are 24/29 with 14 touchdowns. The Rebels have three defensive touchdowns this season.

Quarterback Chad Kelly has completed 65.5% of his passes for 2,234 yards with 16 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and has 46 carries for 118 yards and 4 touchdowns. Ryan Buchanan has thrown for 96 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. DeVante Kincade has thrown for 79 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for 87 yards on 9 carries.

Running back Jaylen Walton has 58 carries for 331 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 9 catches for 49 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. Eugene Brazley has 17 carries for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns. Jordan Wilkins has 48 carries for 204 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Akeem Judd has 31 catches for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns along with 5 catches.

Receiver Laquon Treadwell has 49 catches for 654 yards and four touchdowns, and also threw a touchdown pass. Cody Core has 23 catches for 426 yards and 3 touchdowns. Quincy Adeboyejo has 20 catches for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns. Damore’ea Stringfellow has 17 catches for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is probable for undisclosed reasons.  Markell Pack has 16 catches for 229 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evan Engram has 14 catches for 161 yards. Seven defensive players are listed on the injury report.

Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in road games and overall, 6-13 against teams with winning records, 17-40-1 against teams with winning home records, 2-5 after rushing for 100 yards or less, 5-13 in SEC games, 3-9-1 after a double digit home loss, 2-6 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 1-4 in October and after allowing less than 170 passing yards and 1-6 after a straight up loss.

Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS after rushing for 100 yards or less, 4-1 at home, and against teams with winning road records, 10-4 in October, 7-3 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 2-5 in conference games, and 2-5-1 after passing for 280 yards or more.

It is difficult to know what to make of either of these teams. Ole Miss was a top three team as recently as three weeks ago, but has lost 2 of their last 3 games. Texas A&M might have been exposed by Alabama, but you throw three pick sixes in one game and you will lose to most teams. Still, I like Texas A&M to steal a road victory in a high scoring shootout.

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