SEC Betting Picks: #15 LSU Tigers at #22 Ole Miss Rebels

#15 LSU Tigers at #22 Ole Miss Rebels
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
Saturday, November 21, 2015, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: CBS
Opening Line: Mississippi -4 1/2
Current Line: Mississippi -4 (-115)
Opening Total: 59 1/2
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: Mississippi -190 / LSU +165
Current Money Line: Mississippi -190 / LSU +165

Ole Miss is a 4 point favorite against LSU Saturday.
Ole Miss is a 4 point favorite against LSU Saturday.

Up until around two weeks ago, many thought this game between the LSU Tigers and Ole Miss Rebels would help decide the SEC West title. However, since then both teams have lost to Arkansas, basically all but securing the title for Alabama. LSU is 7-2 overall and Ole Miss is 7-3. Both teams are tied with Arkansas at 4-2 in SEC play, but all three teams are behind 6-1 Alabama. Ole Miss still has an outside shot at the division title if they win out and Alabama loses to Auburn next week. Arkansas would also have to lose at least one game for that to happen.

LSU leads the series 59-40-4, including 9-7-1 in Oxford. The Tigers have won four of the last five games in the series including 10-7 last year in Baton Rouge.

LSU is coached by Les Miles. Two weeks ago LSU was undefeated and ranked in the top four of the college football playoff rankings. However, blowout losses at Alabama 30-16 and at home against Arkansas 31-14 have sent them freefall to #15. The opening game against McNeese State was cancelled due to bad weather. LSU has road wins over Mississippi State 21-19 and Syracuse 34-24. The Tigers have home wins over Auburn 45-21, Eastern Michigan 44-22, South Carolina 45-24, Florida 35-28, Western Kentucky 48-20.

LSU was a 6.5 point favorite against Arkansas and the total was 54. Arkansas jumped out to a 21-0 lead in the first half, but LSU would pull to within 21-14 early in the third. The Razorbacks scored the last 10 points of the game. Arkansas had 440 total yards to 330 for LSU. Each team had two turnovers. LSU is 4-5 ATS and the total is 6-3 this season.

Ole Miss is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels have home wins over UT-Martin 76-3, Fresno State 73-21, Vanderbilt 27-16, New Mexico State 52-3, and Texas A&M 23-3. Mississippi has road wins at Alabama 43-37 and Auburn 27-19. The Rebels have road losses at Florida 38-10, and Memphis 37-24, plus a home loss to Arkansas 53-52 in overtime two weeks ago. The Rebels were off last week.

Ole Miss was a 7.5 point favorite against Arkansas and the total was 55. The game was back and fourth with neither team leading by more than 7 points. Every score in the game resulted in either a tie or a lead change. The Razorbacks tied the game with 53 seconds left at 45. In overtime, the Rebels scored first to make it 52-45. Arkansas faced fourth and 25 at the Ole Miss 40 but converted on a wild 25 yard lateral that included two Razorback fumbles. Arkansas scored two plays later. The Razorbacks went for two and the win, but the pass was incomplete. However, the Rebels were called for a facemask. Arkansas converted this time to seal the upset. The two teams combined for just under 1.200 total yards, but their were no turnovers. Ole miss is 5-5 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season.

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LSU is outscoring teams 34-24 this season. The Tigers are #39 in scoring and #50 in points allowed nationally. LSU averages 419 yards per game on offense including 253 rushing and 156 passing yards. The Tigers are #10 nationally in rushing but #115 in passing. The Tigers are #51 nationally in total offense. On defense, LSU is allowing 343 yards per game including 209 passing and 134 rushing yards. The Tigers are #29 in total defense and #28 in rush defense nationally. LSU has forced 12 turnovers and has 5 of their own. The Tigers average 60 penalty yards per game and opponents average 47. LSU is 49/111 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 54/143. The Tigers have forced 23 sacks and allowed 15 this season. LSU is 31/35 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns and opponents are 23/25 with 18 touchdowns. The Tigers have a punt return for a touchdown and a pick six, and have allowed a kick and punt return for a touchdowns.

Quarterback Brandon Harris has thrown for 1,497 yards with 11 touchdowns and 2 picks, and has rushed for 112 yards on 54 carries with 3 touchdowns. Receiver Travin Dural has 28 catches for 533 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Malachi Dupre has 31 catches for 529 yards and 6 touchdowns.  No other receiver has more than 10 catches this year. Tight end Dillon Gordon is out for the season with a torn Achilles’. Another tight end John David Moore is also out for the season with a knee injury.

Running back Leonard Fournette has 214 carries for 1,474 yards with 17 touchdowns, along with 10 catches for 94 yards. He was the favorite for the Heisman Trophy before the losing streak. After rushing for at least 150 yards in the first seven games of the season, Fournette has been held to 122 combined rushing yards in the last two games.  Darrel Williams has 52 carries for 276 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Derrius Guice has 36 carries for 322 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches.

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Ole Miss is outscoring teams 41-23 this season. Mississippi is #12 in scoring and #43 in points allowed.  The Rebels are averaging 527 yards per game including 349 passing and 178 rushing. Ole Miss is #10 in total offense and #8 in passing nationally. On defense, Mississippi is allowing 374 yards per game on defense including 248 passing and 126 rushing yards. Ole Miss is #23 in rush defense, but the pass defense is #93 nationally. The Rebels have forced 17 turnovers and have 21 of their own. Ole Miss averages 58 penalty yards per game and opponents  average 47. The Rebels are 62/147 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 74/191. Ole Miss has 18 sacks and has allowed 16 this season. The Rebels are 41/48 scoring in the red zone with 28 touchdowns, and opponents are 32/37 with 19 touchdowns. The Rebels have three defensive touchdowns this season, and have allowed one.

Quarterback Chad Kelly has completed 65.7% of his passes for 3,224 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, and has 74 carries for 272 yards and 7 touchdowns. Ryan Buchanan has thrown for 96 yards with 2 touchdowns and an interception. DeVante Kincade has thrown for 79 yards and a touchdown, and rushed for 87 yards on 9 carries.

Running back Jaylen Walton has 113 carries for 582 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 133 yards.  Akeem Judd has 55 catches for 297 yards and 3 touchdowns along with 8 catches. Jordan Wilkins has 62 carries for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Eugene Brazley has 17 carries for 211 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Receiver Laquon Treadwell has 68 catches for 1,002 yards and seven touchdowns, and also threw a touchdown pass. Cody Core has 28 catches for 500 yards and 3 touchdowns. Quincy Adeboyejo has 33 catches for 487 yards and 7 touchdowns. Damore’ea Stringfellow has 29 catches for 385 yards and 3 touchdowns.  Markell Pack has 29 catches for 370 yards and 3 touchdowns. Evan Engram has 25 catches for 267 yards and a touchdown. Four defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report.

LSU is 5-1 ATS after rushing for 100 yards or less, 11-4-2 after allowing more than 200 rushing yards, 3-7 in road games, 1-4 after a double digit home loss, 1-5 in November and on fieldturf. The underdog is 14-3 ATS in this series recently. The road team is 14-4 ATS between the teams recently.

Ole Miss is 4-0 ATS after allowing 40 points or more, 5-1 against teams with winning road records, 5-2 at home, 7-3 after gaining more than 450 total yards, 11-5 after a straight up loss, 3-7-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 2-5 overall, 7-19 in November, 1-4 in SEC games, after allowing more than 450 total yards, and after passing for more than 280 yards, and 0-3-1 after a bye week. The over is 4-1 in this series recently in Oxford. The Rebels have covered 10 of the last 14 against the Tigers.

There are some rumors that Miles could be coaching for his job after late season collapses the last two years. The formula for the Tigers is simple, get Fournette back on track. It won’t be easy as the Rebels have a stout run defense. I don’t trust either of these teams but I will take the Rebels in a close game at home.

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