SEC Betting Picks: #15 Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels

#15 Auburn Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday, October 29, 2016, 7:15 pm Eastern, TV: SEC Network
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium – Oxford, Mississippi
Opening Line: Auburn -2
Current Line: Auburn -5
Opening Total: 63
Current Total: 64 1/2
Opening Money Line: Auburn -185 / Ole Miss +165
Current Money Line: Auburn -200 / Ole Miss +170

Auburn is a 5 point favorite against Ole Miss on the road Saturday.
Auburn is a 5 point favorite against Ole Miss on the road Saturday.

The 5-2 Auburn Tigers travel to the 3-4 Ole Miss Rebels Saturday in a key SEC contest. The Tigers are 3-1 in the SEC West and Ole Miss is 1-3. Auburn leads the series 29-11 against Ole Miss including 10-3 in Oxford. The Tigers have won 5 of the last 7 games in the series, but the Rebels won 27-19 at Auburn last year.

Auburn is coached by Gus Malzahn. The Tigers have losses at home to Clemson 19-13 and Texas A&M 29-16. Auburn has home wins over Arkansas State 51-14, LSU 18-13, UL-Monroe 58-7, and Arkansas 56-3 last week, plus a road win at Mississippi State 38-14. The Tigers were 10.5 point favorites against Arkansas and the total was 53. Auburn is 6-1 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season.

Ole Miss is coached by Hugh Freeze. The Rebels have losses to Florida State 45-34 in Orlando and at home to Alabama 48-43 despite leading each game by at least 21 points in the first half. Ole Miss has road losses at Arkansas 34-30 and LSU 38-21 last week. The Rebels have home wins over Wofford 38-13, Georgia 45-14 and Memphis 48-28.  The Rebels were 8.5 point underdogs against LSU  and the total was 59. Ole Miss is 3-4 ATS and the total is 3-3-1 this season.

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Auburn is outscoring teams 36-14 this season. The Tigers are #3 in points allowed and #33 in scoring nationally. The Tigers average 501 yards per game on offense including 198 passing and 303 rushing yards per game. The Tigers are #3 in rushing nationally, but #96 in passing. The Tigers are #15 nationally in total offense.  On defense, Auburn allows 328 yards per game including 198 passing and 130 rushing yards. Auburn is #30 or better in all categories nationally. The Tigers are +1 in turnovers with 9 giveaways. Auburn averages 32 penalty yards per game and opponents average 55 per game. The Tigers are 55/116 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 39/121. Auburn has forced 18 sacks and allowed 15 this season. The Tigers are 29/35 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns, and opponents are 15/22 with 8 touchdowns.

Quarterback Sean White has thrown for 1,264 yards with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, and also has 42 carries for 113 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jeremy Johnson and John Franklin III have also take snaps this season. Franklin has 26 carries for 256 yards and a touchdown, and has thrown a touchdown pass.

Running back Kerryon Johnson has 105 carries for 538 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 4 catches. He is probable with an ankle injury after missing last week. Kamryn Pettway has 118 carries for 697 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 2 catches. Stanton Pruitt and Kam Martin will also get some carries. Malik Miller is out indefinitely with a knee injury.

Receiver Tony Stevens has 24 catches for 408 yards and 3 touchdowns. Kyle Davis has 9 catches for 212 yards and a touchdown. Ryan Davis has 22 catches for 170 yards and a touchdown. Marcus Davis has 13 catches for 100 yards. Will Hastings has 9 catches for 68 yards and a touchdown. Darius Slayton will also get some targets. Four defensive backs and two other defensive players are out indefinitely for Auburn.

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Ole Miss is outscoring opponents 37-31 this season. The Rebels are #25 in scoring nationally. The Rebels average 455 yards per game on offense including 305 passing and 158 rushing yards. Mississippi is #17 in passing but #94 in rushing. On defense, Ole Miss is allowing 456 yards per game including 229 passing and 227 rushing yards. The Rebels are #106 in total defense and #112 against the rush. Mississippi is even in turnovers and has forced 12 this season. The Rebels average 47 penalty yards per game and opponents average 64 per game. Ole Miss is 40/94 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 45/110. The Rebels have forced 14 sacks and allowed 14 this season. Ole Miss is 31/33 scoring in the red zone with 24 touchdowns and opponents are 25/28 with 18 touchdowns.

Quarterback Chad Kelly has thrown for 2,067 yards with 15 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, and has rushed for 269 yards on 64 carries and 3 touchdowns.

Running back Akeem Judd has 80 carries for 382 yards and 4 touchdowns. Eugene Brazley has 35 carries for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 6 catches for 45 yards and a touchdown. Jason Pellerin has 18 carries for 64 yards and 3 touchdowns. Running backs Eric Swinney and and Jordan Wilkins are both out for the season.

Nine Rebels have caught a touchdown pass this season. Tight end Evan Engram has 40 catches for 605 yards and 5 touchdowns. Receiver DaMore’ea Stringfellow has 26 catches for 423 yards and 2 touchdowns. Van Jefferson has 26 catches for 303 yards and 2 touchdowns. A.J. Brown has 15 catches for 201 yards and 2 touchdowns. Quincy Adeboyejo has 19 catches for 242 yards and a touchdown. Receiver D.J. Metcalf is out for the season with a foot injury. He had two touchdown catches. Three defensive players and 2 offensive linemen are on the injury report.

Auburn is 6-0 ATS after gaining more than 450 total yards, 4-0 in October and overall, 5-1 after allowing less than 20 points, 8-2 against teams with losing records, 4-1 after a cover, after rushing for 200 yards or more, and in road games, 11-5 after scoring more than 40 points, and 1-4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards. The Tigers are 6-1 ATS overall in this series recently, and 7-3 in Oxford.

Ole Miss is 5-1 ATS against teams with winning road records, 18-7-1 at home, and 5-2 after a straight up loss. The over is 5-2 in this series overall and 8-1 in Oxford between the teams. The home team is 4-1 ATS in this series recently.

These two teams are going in opposite directions. Auburn has won four straight games after a 1-2 start. Ole Miss has lost two straight games. I like Auburn to win by double digits in a high scoring game.

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