The third game of this crucial AL Central series may be a low-scoring affair based on some critical numbers.
Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
Chicago will try to bounce back from its first loss in nearly two weeks, after committing four errors in a 7-4 loss last night to Minnesota. The White Sox have still one 26 of their last 32 games, but have fallen to 3-4 in the season series against their division rivals. Six of the seven games between the two foes have been decided by a single run. The club is 13-5 in their last 18 road games and 23-20 away from U.S. Cellular Field on the season (+660). In 12 July games, Chicago stands at 10-2 (+930) and the total is 5-7 O/U.
White Sox starting pitcher Mark Buehrle is 8-7 with a 4.24 ERA in 18 starts this season (+150) and comes in with a two-game winning streak. In those two outings, he has allowed three runs and 11 hits over 14 innings. The left-hander is 3-5 with a 4.22 ERA in nine road starts this season, managing to strike out just 24 batters in 53.1 innings. He is 3-1 with a 2.43 ERA in his last five road outings. Buehlre has made 44 career appearances (42 starts) against the Twins, posting a 24-16 record and 4.10 ERA, but has gone 0-4 with a 7.16 ERA in his last five starts in Minnesota.
Minnesota moved its record to 21-13 against AL Central division foes (+330) with last night’s victory, as the team looks to hold on with first baseman Justin Morneau on the disabled list. All nine Minnesota starters notched a run, hit or RBI on Friday. Outfielder Delmon Young is doing his best in trying to pick up the slack, hitting .353 with five home runs in 36 games since June 3. The team will need more production from the entire lineup, as they start the day 3.5 games back behind the White Sox. The pitching staff has fallen a bit in July, posting a Major League-high 5.81 ERA, allowing 17 home runs in the process. Those numbers have been a direct result of Minnesota’s 4-8 mark in the first 12 games of the month (-450).
Twins starting pitcher Carl Pavano is 10-6 with a 3.58 ERA in 18 starts (+260), with the club winning six of his last seven games on the hill. The offense has managed to produce 42 runs of support over that span, outscoring the opposition by 22 runs. The right-hander is 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA in nine home starts. Pavano is 4-2 with a 2.81 ERA in six career starts against Chicago. He has compiled a losing 7-11 mark and 4.80 ERA in 32 career (24 starts) July outings, while allowing 181 hits and 49 walks.
Bettors find the home team in one of its favorite situations, posting a 15-3 mark as a home favorite of -125 to -150 this season (+1,100). The total in those contests is an even 9-9 O/U and 33-31 O/U the last three seasons. Chicago has offered little as a road underdog of +125 to +150 (+50), but the 2-7 O/U in those nine games is appealing, especially considering a 18-34 O/U run the last three years.