Saturday MLB Preview – Marlins at Padres

The Marlins are red hot and have had great success against tonight’s opponent in tonight’s venue.

Florida Marlins at San Diego Padres

Florida took game one of this three-game series against the first-place Padres, 4-2, at Petco Park.  The club had dropped five of its first six games against San Diego this season, but they have won 10 of 13 at today’s venue.  Since going 2-7 against the Friars in 2000, the Fish have tallied a winning 32-29 mark against them.  It marked the 12th win in their last 18 games, as they continue a seven-game road trip (3-2) tonight.  The Marlins are 32-39 against right-handed starters (-630) compared to 20-12 versus lefties this season.  On the season, Florida has gone 15-18 versus NL West clubs and have gone 205-318 against Western foes in their 18 years in the league.  Playing on Saturdays has been a bit problematic for the young club, posting a 6-11 record this season (-690), but they are 34-32 over the last three years.

Marlins starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco is 11-7 with a 4.35 ERA in 21 starts this seaosn, including picking up victories in his last two outings.  In those starts, he has allowed three runs and eight hits over 14.1 innings, managing to strike out 15 batters and issue just three walks.  The right-hander is a solid 7-2 with a 3.93 ERA in 11 road starts this season.  In six career appearances (five starts) against the Padres, he is an even 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA.  Nolasco last faced tonight’s opponent on August 29, 2009 at Sun Life Stadium and didn’t receive a decision in allowing three runs on six hits in 5.1 innings.  He has made three career starts at Petco, going 2-1 with a 1.77 ERA.

San Diego sits on top of the National League West with a 60-41 overall record (+2,240), including a promising 32-21 mark at home (+790).  At 14-8 in July, the Padres have clinched a sixth straight winning month, as they join the Yankees as the only other major league team to accomplish that feat.  This month’s results is a bit surprising due to the club’s 31-45 record in July the past three seasons (-1,360).  Fans will definitely expect a bounce back performance tonight, with San Diego being a fantastic 28-13 following a loss this season (+1,740), but the total is an even 20-20 O/U in that situation.  San Diego has won 10 of its last 14 games and will play its second game with new addition Miguel Tejada.  The veteran slugger went 0-for-3 in his first game with the club since being acquired from Baltimore on Thursday.

Padres starting pitcher Kevin Correia is 7-6 with a 5.09 ERA in 19 starts this season and is looking to pick up a third straight victory.  In his previous two outings, he has allowed six runs (five earned) and 13 hits over 12 innings.  The offense has managed to provide the right-hander with 19 runs of support the last three times out.  He is an even 4-4 with a 4.52 ERA in 11 starts at home this season compared to 3-2 with a 5.98 ERA on the road.  In 12 career games (five starts) versus the Marlins, he is 2-2 with a 6.94 ERA.  Correia has produced a 4-5 record and 4.56 ERA in 14 nighttime outings, as he’s made just five daytime starts (3-1, 6.94 ERA).

Bettors will find this matchup difficult to handicap, as the Marlins are 8-6 when the total is 7 or less this season, while the home team checks in with a 30-23 mark in the same situation.  It’s important to note that the total has gone over six of seven times when San Diego is at home and the money line is -100 to -125.

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