Saturday CFB Preview: Purdue Boilermakers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Saturday, 9/4/10, 3:30 PM EST, TV:  NBC
Opening Point Spread:  Notre Dame -12.5
Current Betting Line:  Notre Dame -11
Opening Total:  51.5
Current Total:  54.5
Current Moneyline:  Notre Dame -430, Purdue +360

All odds taken from Bookmaker.

Purdue looks to build off a strong 4-2 finish to the 2009 season after starting the year in a disappointing 1-5 fashion.  The Boilermakers are 72-44-6 overall in their first game of the season dating back to 1887 and have won six straight openers since 2004, outscoring the opposition 306-124 in those contests.  The team hasn’t opened a season against Notre Dame since 1984 and not in South Bend since 1980.  It’s important to point out that they will also be opening the year on the road for just the third time in 10 years.  Purdue is 2-0 in those games, picking up a 19-14 victory at Cincinnati and a 52-24 win at Toledo in 2007.  Over the last three years, the team has produced an even 5-5 record against the college football line and the total is 5-4 O/U in those contests.

The Boilermakers will be out to revenge a 24-21 defeat at Ross-Ade Stadium last year, as the team rallied from a 17-7 deficit with a pair of fourth quarter scores, only to see Irish quarterback Jimmy Clausen deliver a touchdown strike with 25 seconds left in the game.  Notre Dame managed to outgain Purdue by just 20 yards (383-363).  Redshirt quarterback Robert Mavre gets his shot at the Irish now, becoming the third different signal caller under center in three consecutive openers for the Boilers.  He shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the site of Notre Dame Stadium due to his first collegiate start coming at the Swamp against Florida in 2008.  Second-year head coach Danny Hope was a perfect 2-0 ATS as a double-digit underdog last year.

Notre Dame will have the luxury of starting the 2010-11 season at home, as the school anticipates the 213th consecutive sellout at Notre Dame Stadium.  The game will also serve as the debut of new head coach Brian Kelly, who comes from a successful run at Cincinnati.  The Fighting Irish are 39-7-1 in season openers inside the Stadium and will open a season at home for the fourth straight year after opening the 2004, ’05 and ’06 seasons all away from South Bend.  A victory over the Boilermakers would give the team a fifth win in six years opening a season.  The Irish hold a 53-26-2 lead in the series against the Boilermakers, capturing 15 of the last 16 meetings at today’s venue.  Notre Dame is also 6-1 all-time against Purdue in season openers.

The Irish and new head man Kelly don’t have to do much reading to know how important winning the season opener has been to the program.  The 101 seasons Notre Dame has won its opener, the Irish went on to post winning records 92 times, with four losing seasons and five .500 records.  The Irish must improve upon their performance at home for bettors to be interested, after posting a 5-15 ATS mark in their last 20 games as a home favorite under former head coach Charlie Weis.  This turnaround may not happen overnight, considering that Kelly was 6-8 ATS in his last 14 games as the Bearcats leader.

Bettors will immediately examine Notre Dame’s 0-3 ATS mark as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points over the last three years.  Don’t jump all in, but take comfort in the Boilermakers 17-9 mark as an underdog of this kind since 1992.

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