Boston Celtics AT Philadelphia 76ers
Mar 11, 2011 at 7 PM EST
Opening Line:  Boston -2
Current Line:  Boston -1.5
Opening Total:  188
Current Total:  191.5
Opening Moneyline:  Bos -130 / Phi +110
Current Moneyline:  Bos -125 / Phi +105

When one looks at the standings, and then the point spread set by NBA oddsmakers, it is difficult to ascertain why Boston is BARELY favored against a team that is barely over .500 at 33-31.  Then, looking deeper into things, it becomes apparent why.  Since the 21st of January, the Sixers have gone 16-6, the second best record in the East over that time span (Chicago is 16-4 over that span).

Indeed, after beginning the season 3-13 and appearing to be on the fast track to nowhere, the Sixers have stepped up to become a threat to whichever team is unfortunate enough to draw them in the first round…and it may be Boston.  If the playoffs started today, it would be Chicago, but given Chicago’s dominance lately, it is entirely possible that they over take the Celtics for the first seed in the East.

The Celtics surprisingly shook things up at the trade deadline and are still coming together as a team.  Newly acquired center Nenad Krstic has been very good, as has forward Jeff Green, but Troy Murphy is still finding his way in the offense.  Besides that, the Celts have been missing Big Baby, Shaq, and Delonte West.  So we won’t really get an idea of what this team is capable of until a few weeks have passed and continuity and steadyness in the roster take hold.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston’s last 6 games and they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.  Boston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games and they are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games.  The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston’s last 6 games on the road and they are 4-1 SU In their last 5 on the road.  Boston is 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against the Sixers and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against Philly.  Boston is 5-0 SU in their last 5 road games against the Sixers and they are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 on the road against Philadelphia.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games and they are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philly’s last 6 games at home and they are 11-4 SU in their last 15 home games.  Philly is 1-9 SU in their last 10 games against Boston and they are 8-14-1 ATS in their last 23 against the Celtics.  Philadelphia is 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against the Celtics and Philly is 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 at home against the Celtics.

Key Matchups:

Rajon Rondo vs. Jrue Holiday

Some may say Holiday has been “a pleasant surprise” for the Sixers, but to those who paid attention down the meaningless stretch of games they played at the end of last season, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise at all.  While Holiday’s season averages have leaped dramatically, all he is really doing is an imiation of himself at the end of last season.  13.9 points per game, 6.3 assists per game, and 4.0 rebounds per game is outstanding for a second year point guard.  He’ll attempt to utilize his lanky 6’4″ frame against the shorter, but still “long,” Rondo.  Holiday made the most of it last time against the Celtics, scoring 15 points and recording 5 assists and 5 rebounds and in the game prior to that against the C’s, Holiday went for 12 points, 6 assists, and 3 rebounds.  Rondo did not play in the last meeting between the teams, but averages 10.3 points per game and 6.3 assists per game against the Sixers, both slightly below his career averages.

Paul Pierce vs. Andre Iguodala

Pierce has historically struggled against Andre Iguodala, as do most NBA wing players.  Iguodala is as close as you will see to a “lockdown” defender in the NBA today.  Pierce is averaging only 10.5 points per game in the two meetings against the Sixers this year while shooting an atrocious 30.4% from the field.  Iguodala is only averaging 11.5 himself in those two meetings, but scoring isn’t his main contribution to the team like it is for Paul Pierce.

Tonight’s game should be a very good one.  Philly is very tough at the Wells Fargo Center and they matchup well against the Celtics.