Pitchers’ Duel: Lincecum and the Giants Take on Dustin Moseley and the Padres – Betting Preview

San Francisco Giants (53-40) AT San Diego Padres (40-53)
July 15, 2011 at 10:05 PM EST
Opening Line:  SF -150, SD +130
Current Line:  SF -138, SD +128
Opening Total:  6
Current Total:  5.5

SP:  SF- Tim Lincecum;  SD- Dustin Moseley

Dustin Moseley is receiving poor run support, but has pitched very well

For two teams that have transposed, opposite records, the opening game of this series went about as one would have expected, with the Giants taking the game 6-2, despite being held scoreless until a home run by Aubrey Huff in the ninth inning.  The Giants went on to get a few more runs in the 12th when the bases were juiced.  Despite the fact that they have won 4 straight, last night was only the 3rd time in the last 9 games that they managed more than 3 runs.

Pablo Sandoval and Aubrey Huff each had 2 hits and Eli Whiteside went 3 of 4, despite the fact he is .248 on the season.  If the Giants can continue to receive contributions from players like Whiteside, this current winning streak may persist, or at least through the three remaining games of this series against the Padres.

“Huge for us. We’re looking at a 1-0 loss there,” Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy said. “We needed something like that to save us and he did with the home run.”

Tim Lincecum is only 7-7 this year despite a 3.06 ERA, but his continued excellence always gives the Giants a good chance.  Last year at this point he was 9-4 with a 3.16 ERA, so while his pitching has improved, if only slightly, he is simply not getting the same run support this year, as the Giants have scored only 5 total runs over his last 5 starts, and in the first half of the season they gave him only 3.2 runs.  Compare that to last season’s 6.0 runs prior to the AS break.

Lincecum is 4-2 with a 1.80 ERA in his career at San Diego and that should bode well for the Giants, and moreover account for the really low total set on this one.  The other reason is who the Padres are sending to the mound:

Dustin Moseley, despite having a poor record at 2-8, has pitched well, and has an ERA of 3.21.  The Padres have, however, lost his last 5 starts and though he only gave up 4 runs in 7 1/3rds innings last game, the Padres pen blew the game and the offense provided only 5 runs, as the Padres lost in 14 innings.

The 7 1/3rds innings was a positive though, as it tied the longest outing of his career.  His strength is enabling him to pitch deeper into games, while his success makes that a viable option.

The aforementioned Sandoval has a 22 game hitting streak going but is 0 of 2 against Moseley.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone OVER in 7 of the Giants’ last 10 games and they are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Giants’ last 6 games against the Padres.  The Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 against the Padres and the total has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 18 games on the road against the Padres.  The Giants are 6-2 SU in their last 8 road games against the Padres.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego’s last 5 games and the Padres are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.  The Padres are 4-1 SU in their last 5 at home and they are 2-4 SU in their last 6 against the San Francisco Giants.  The total has gone OVER in 5 of the Padres’ last 6 games against the Giants and it has gone UNDER in 12 of the last 18 games against the Giants at home.  The Padres are 2-6 SU in their last 8 home games against the Giants.

As mentioned, the total is set low on this one, and with good reason.  Both Lincecum and Moseley are effective pitchers and neither team has been producing offensively, so even though the total is low at 5.5 now, I still like the under.

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