The Pac-10 stinks. Sure, they have a ridiculously scary at the top that should cruise to an undefeated record, but beyond that there is pretty much nothing. All ten teams played this weekend, but only three won, and only two covered. The conference played the Mountain West four times this weekend, and neither won nor covered once. Two of their teams dropped out of the top 25, and there isn’t a team in there that appears to be a serious threat for anything. Oregon is the one team that is maybe promising, or at least they were until they lost yet another quarterback to injury. My beloved Big Ten gets a lot of abuse, but we look good compared to the Pac-10. And yes, I know about the Ohio State debacle, but I only barely consider them a part of the conference. The part of the conference that isn’t in Ohio went 7-2 on the weekend.
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As we did last weekend, here’s a look at what I think are the most interesting top 25 games of the weekend. Not included on here is the obvious one – USC-Ohio State. If you’re not totally sick of hearing about that game by now then you are a better person than me. For the record, I think USC will win, but I think the line movement has been utterly ridiculous this week. It also doesn’t include perhaps the most interesting top 25 game of the week – Kansas-USF – because that one has already happened.
Greg Schiano should have taken one of the jobs he was offered before he quit looking like a genius at Rutgers. That loss to North Carolina last night was very, very ugly. Butch Davis is going to turn NC around, but not that quickly or dramatically.
I was just about ready to count out the Rays. They were going to make the playoffs, but I was seriously doubting that they would do anything once they got there. But then the last two game happened. Twice they got into tight spots against the Red Sox, and twice they found a way to win. It wasn’t easy, either. The first time they had to beat Jonathan Papelbon. That rarely happens. The second time around they hung around in a 1-1 game until the 14th before erupting for three runs. I’m still not viewing the Rays as my favorites, but they keep showing guts that I wasn’t sure they had, and that will be very useful in the playoffs.
The betting public is composed of suckers. That, of course, is why sportsbooks exist. I’m sure that every time a reasonably unexpected player has a big performance the books just laugh and figure out how they are going to spend all of the extra money that they are going to make. That’s because the public assumes that any performance, no matter how gaudy or unexpected, is completely sustainable. If a players has a huge game this week, public logic dictates that they wll do it again the next week, and they bet accordingly. They usually won’t, obviously, and that will often cost the overly eager public some cash. Here are five players (six, actually) who could prove costly:
Shawne Merriman is done for the season. He’s chosen to get the surgery on his knee because he is ineffective without it. Only a genius could have seen this shocking development coming. Ridiculous. I want the last two weeks of my life back – all I heard was talk about him, and all for nothing. Listening to all that made me long for Favre talk.
We’re starting something new. Every Tuesday during the football season we are going to do a look ahead at what the coming weekend has to offer – the highs and lows, the betting intrigue, the clear stay-aways, the fun stories. Without further ado…
Worst game of the week (and perhaps ever) – There is absolutely no contest here. Kansas City is a four point favorite at home against the Raiders. I could spend every minute between now and kickoff trying to come up with a single nice thing to say about each team and I couldn’t do it. Terrible, awful, thoroughly irredeemable game. The sad part is that this used to be such a classic rivalry. Pathetic.
Best NFL game of the week – The obvious choice would be the Monday night Philly-Dallas game, but choosing that wouldn’t be very original, and I’m not sure it will live up to the hype. Pittsburgh and Cleveland has promise, but I am justifiably scared of Cleveland after the Dallas game. That leaves me with my choice – Buffalo at Jacksonville. Buffalo played one of the three best games of the first week (along with Dallas and Pittsburgh). Jacksonville was embarrassed by Tennessee and will be looking to bounce back strong. This one could be a classic. Jacksonville is favored by six.
Games with teams with most to prove – San Diego at Denver. The Chargers were should be disgusted by how they started and ended their opener against Carolina. They have a clear chance to be the class of the AFC now, but they have to be much, much better to do so. Denver looked surprisingly complete on Monday night, but that probably doesn’t mean much since it only came against Oakland. They will be looking to prove that they are legitimate, and nothing would do that better than a win here. San Diego is only favored by one.
I was going to call this post Monday’s Insights, but this first weekend of the NFL has made it perfectly clear to me that insights are an endangered species. The Vikings were the latest problem. I have been high on this team for more than a year now. Tonight they rewarded my faith by looking very, very average. Tarvaris Jackson made it increasingly difficult to imagine he has a bright future with a lackluster performance that was short of compelling excuses. Adrian Peterson was Adrian Peterson, with 103 yards and a touchdown. I have one huge question for the Minny staff after watching the game – why in the world did Peterson only get 19 touches? He was effective. Not much else was. What were you waiting for? You only lost by five, so another 10 carries could have made the difference.
1. Notre Dame is awful. I was pretty sure that the experts who were saying that Notre Dame was going to win nine or ten games this year were crazy. Now I know for sure. They rallied to beat San Diego State, but that’s not much of an accomplishment when you are playing one of the worst teams in division one and you are favored by 21.5 points. The Irish looked confused, lethargic, unprepared and very predictable. They were sloppy, and they got lucky. Charlie Weis is a terrible coach, and I have no faith in his ability to turn ths mess around.
I’m not going to be providing picks for games here, but each Saturday during the college season I will be highlighting the Top 25 games that I think are the most worth checking out.
Ohio (+33) at Ohio State – This one is interesting not in it’s own right, but because of what is on the horizon. Ohio State can handle Ohio in their sleep. Beanie Wells is out, though, and USC will be sitting at home watching this one, so the Buckeyes won’t be looking to show off any tricks. This will be a plain vanilla game plan and the Buckeyes will be looking to stay healthy for next week. If you don’t believe in the Buckeyes then this could be a spot to consider playing against them. They’ll win for sure, but they may not care enough to win by five touchdowns. I just hope that we get to see Terrelle Pryor play more.
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