Pac 12 Tournament First Round: #12 Oregon State Beavers vs #5 Colorado Buffaloes

Pac 12 Tournament First Round
#12 Oregon St Beavers vs #5 Colorado Buffaloes
Wednesday, March 13, 2013, 5:30 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
MGM Grand Arena – Las Vegas, Nevada
Opening Line: Colorado -4
Current Line: Colorado -4 1/2
Opening Total: 133 1/2
Current Total: 134 1/2
Opening Money Line: Colorado -200 / Oregon St +170
Current Money Line: Colorado -210 / Oregon St +175

Colorado is a 4.5 point favorite against Oregon St in the Pac 12 first round in Las Vegas.
Colorado is a 4.5 point favorite against Oregon St in the Pac 12 first round in Las Vegas.

The 20-10 Colorado Buffaloes are the #5 seed in the Pac 12 tournament with a 10-8 conference record. Colorado is on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. The Buffaloes were in a similar situation last year when they won the Pac 12 tournament in their first year in the conference. Colorado opens defense of their championship against the #12 seeded Oregon St Beavers. The 14-17 Beavers finished tied for last in the conference with Washington St. Both teams were 4-14 in the Pac 12. The winner will face #4 seed Arizona in the quarterfinals Thursday.

Colorado leads the series 8-4 against Oregon St. The two teams split the series this year with each winning on the road. Colorado won in Corvallis 72-68 February 10. Oregon St won in Boulder 64-58 last Saturday to close out the regular season. The upset snapped a 5 game losing streak for the Beavers.

Oregon St is coached by Craig Robinson. The Beavers have losses to Alabama in New York City, to Kansas in Kansas City, and at home to Towson in overtime, Oregon twice, Arizona St, Arizona, at USC, at UCLA, Washington St, at Washington, Cal twice, Stanford twice, at Utah and Colorado. Oregon St has key wins over New Mexico St, Purdue in New York, and San Diego in Las Vegas, Washington, Utah, and at Washington St. Oregon St is 14-12-1 ATS and the total is 6-16 this season.

Oregon St is outscoring teams 72-70 this season. Oregon St is shooting 44.9% from the field and  36.8% from 3 point range. Oregon St makes 66.7% of their free throws. The Beavers average 37.7 rebounds  per game, and OSU allows 31.6 to opponents. Oregon St opponents are shooting 43.3% from the field and 34.1% from 3 point range. The Beavers are averaging 14 assists, 6 steals, 5 blocks, and 14 steals per game.

Guard Roberto Nelson averages 17.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1 steal per game. Forward Devon Collier averages 12.6 points, 6.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game.  Joe Burton averages 11.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Ahmad Starks averages 10.5 points, 2.1 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and 1.1 steals a game.  Center Angus Brandt is out for the season with a knee injury. He averaged 11.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.3 blocks, and 1 steal a game. Eric Moreland averages 9.2 points, 10.5 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 2.4 blocks per game. Olaf Schaftenaar, Jarmal Reid, and Challe Barton make up the rest of the rotation. Forward Daniel Gomis is also out for the season with a leg injury. He has not played in a game this season.

Colorado is coached by Tad Boyle. Colorado has additional losses at Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona St, and Washington, Cal twice, Utah, Arizona St and UCLA. The Buffaloes have key wins over Dayton, Baylor and Murray St in a tournament in Charleston, at home against Air Force, Colorado St, USC, and Stanford twice, Arizona and Utah,  along with road wins at Fresno St and Washington St, Oregon twice, and Oregon St. Colorado is 16-12 ATS and the total is 5-16 this season.

Colorado is outscoring teams 68-63 this season. The Buffaloes are shooting 43.8% from the field and 33.3% from 3 point range. The Buffaloes make 68.1% of their free throws. Colorado averages 37.1 rebounds per game and give up 30.9 to opponents. Buffaloes’ opponents are shooting 40.2% from the field and 32.4% from 3 point range. Colorado is averaging 10 assists, 7 steals, 3 blocks, and 13 turnovers per game.

Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie averages 15.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Guard Askia Booker averages 12.6 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Josh Scott averages 10.7 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Andre Roberson averages 10.8 points, 11.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. He is questionable with the flu, after missing the last two games. Xavier Johnson averages 8.7 points and 4.8 rebounds. Sabatino Chen averages 4.7 points, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 assists. Jeremy Adams, Xavier Talton, Shane Harris-Tunks and Eli Stalzer make up the rest of the rotation, but none play more than 10 minutes a game.

Colorado is 7-1 ATS in neutral site games, 4-1 after failing to cover, and 0-4 against teams with losing records. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in this series recently.

Oregon St is 9-2-1 in Wednesday games, 9-3 in neutral site games, and 0-7 after a straight up win. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 in this series.

Look, I know Oregon St just beat Colorado Saturday in Boulder, and Colorado could be without the talented Roberson for the third straight game. However only having to lay 4.5 points with Colorado seems like a bargain. This line should probably be around 7 or 8. I like Colorado to win and cover easily.

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