Pac 12 College Hoops Picks: California Golden Bears at Colorado Buffaloes

California Golden Bears at Colorado Buffaloes
Sunday, January 27, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: FSN
Coors Events Center – Boulder, Colorado
Opening Line: Colorado -7
Current Line: Colorado -6 1/2
Opening Total: 134
Current Total: 133 1/2
Opening Money Line: 
Colorado -260 / Cal +220
Current Money Line: Colorado -250 / Cal +210

Cal is a 6.5 underdog at Colorado in a key pac 12 game Sunday.
Cal is a 6.5 underdog at Colorado in a key Pac 12 game Sunday.

The 11-7 California Golden Bears and 13-6 Colorado Buffaloes meet Sunday in Boulder. The Bears are 3-3 in the Pac 12 and Colorado is 3-4. The series is tied at 10 games apiece between the teams. Colorado is 7-1 in Boulder though. The buffaloes won the series last year 2-1, with each winning on their own court. Colorado then beat Cal in the semifinals of the Pac 12 tournament in Los Angeles.

California is coached by Mike Montgomery. Cal has losses at Wisconsin, UCLA, and Stanford, and home losses to UNLV Creighton, Harvard, and Washington. All losses except for perhaps Stanford and Washington came to likely NCAA tournament teams. The Golden Bears have key wins at home over Pepperdine, UC-Santa Barbara, and Washington St, and against Drake, Georgia Tech and Pacific in a tournament in Anaheim. Cal has road wins over USC and Utah 62-57 Thursday. The Golden Bears have alternated wins and losses in their last six games. Cal is 6-10 ATS and the total is 4-8 this season.

Cal is outscoring teams 68-65 this season. The Bears are shooting 44.4% from the field and 31% from 3 point range. Cal makes 70.8% of their free throws. The Golden Bears are 37th  in rebounding nationally averaging 38.7 per game. The Bears give up 31.6 per game. California opponents are shooting 39.1% from the field and 32% from 3 point range. The Bears average  13 assists, 5 steals, 5 blocks, and 13 turnovers per game.

Guard Allen Crabbe averages 19.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game. Guard Justin Cobbs averages 14.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Richard Solomon averages 8.1 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. Forward David Kravish averages 7.8 points, 7.4 rebounds, an assist, and 1.5 blocks per game. Guard Tyrone Wallace averages 6.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.6 assists per game. Robert Thurman also gets significant minutes. Forward Christian Behrens (knee) and guard Ricky Kreklow (foot) are both out indefinitely. Guard Brandon Smith is questionable with a concussion.

Colorado is coached by Tad Boyle. Colorado has losses at Wyoming, Kansas, Arizona, Arizona St, and Washington, along with a home loss to and UCLA. The Buffaloes have key wins over Dayton, Baylor and Murray St in a tournament in Charleston, at home against Air Force, Colorado St, USC, and Stanford Thursday 75-54 Thursday night,  along with road wins at Fresno St and Washington St. The Buffaloes have won 2 straight games. Colorado is 10-7 ATS and the total is 4-6 this season.

Colorado is outscoring teams 71-65 this season. The Buffaloes are shooting 45.6% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. The Buffaloes make 66% of their free throws, which is #254 in the country  out of 347 teams. Colorado is 35th nationally in rebounding with 38.7 per game and give up 31.3 to opponents. Buffaloes’ opponents are shooting 39.2% from the field and 32.3% from 3 point range. Colorado is averaging 10 assists, 7 steals, 3 blocks, and 14 turnovers per game.

Colorado guard Spencer Dinwiddie averages 14.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Guard Askia Booker averages 14.1 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.4 steals per game. Josh Scott averages 12.9 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Andre Roberson averages 10.6 points, 11.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. Xavier Johnson averages 7.5 points and 3.6 rebounds. Sabatino Chen averages 4.6 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.5 assists. Jeremy Adams, Xavier Talton, Shane Harris-Tunks and Eli Stalzer make up the rest of the rotation, but none play more than 10 minutes a game.

Cal is 3-8 ATS overall, 1-4 in Sunday games, 1-7 after a cover, and against teams with winning records, and 0-4 after a straight up win. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the series recently, and four of the last 5 in the series have gone under the total.

Colorado is 4-1 ATS in Sunday games, 11-4 after a straight up win, 8-3 after a cover, 5-2 at home, and 13-6 against teams with winning records. The Buffaloes have covered the last 6 games against Cal, including 4 straight in Boulder.

Cal is so banged up right now, it would be hard to pick them especially on the road. I like Colorado to win at home.

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