Pac 12 College Football Picks: Washington Huskies at #10 Stanford Cardinal

Washington Huskies at #10 Stanford Cardinal
Stanford Stadium – Stanford, California
Saturday, October 24, 2015, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN
Opening Line: Stanford -17
Current Line: Stanford -16 1/2
Opening Total: 47 1/2
Current Total: 47
Opening Money Line: Stanford -1000 / Washington +700
Current Money Line: Stanford -750 / Washington +525

Stanford is a heavy favorite against Washington in Pac 12 action.
Stanford is a heavy favorite against Washington in Pac 12 action.

The 3-3 Washington Huskies travel to 5-1 Stanford Cardinal Saturday night in a key Pac 12 game. Stanford leads the Pac 12 North at 4-0 over 2-1 Washington State. Washington is in fifth place at 1-2 ahead of only 0-3 Oregon State.

Washington leads the series 41-40-4 against Stanford, including 20-19-1 in Palo Alto. The Cardinal had won 8 of the last 10 including 2 straight against the Huskies. Stanford won 20-13 last year in Seattle. This series dates back to 1893.

Washington is coached by Chris Petersen. The Huskies have a road loss at Boise State 16-13, plus home losses to California 30-24 and last week against Oregon 26-20. Washington has home wins over Sacramento State 49-0 and Utah State 31-17, plus a road win over USC 17-12.

The Huskies were 2.5 point favorites against Oregon and the total was 59. Oregon took a 16-3 lead at halftime. The Huskies cut the lead to 23-13 going into the fourth. Oregon kicked a field goal to make it 26-13. Washington scored with 3:35 left to make it 26-20. After a Ducks punt, Washington took over with 1:11 left from their own 20 yard line. A Washington interception ended hopes of a comeback. The Huskies are 4-2 ATS and the total is 1-5 this season.

Stanford is coached by David Shaw. After a season opening loss at Northwestern 16-6, the Cardinal have won 5 straight games. Stanford has home wins over UCF 31-7, Arizona 55-17 and last Thursday against UCLA 56-35, along with road wins at USC 41-31 and Oregon State 42-24.

Stanford was a 6.5 point favorite against UCLA and the total was 56. Stanford started the scoring with a 31 yard pick six in the and would lead 14-10 at the end of the first. The Cardinal scored 21 straight points in the second quarter to make it 35-10. UCLA scored late in the half to make it 35-17. Early in the third Cardinal receiver Francis Owusu made an incredible 41 yard touchdown catch when his hands were behind the defender’s back to make it 42-17. The Cardinal would cruise to a 56-35 win. The two teams combined for almost 1,000 total yards. Stanford is 5-1 ATS and the total is 4-2 this season.

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Washington is outscoring teams 26-17 this season. The Huskies are #16 nationally in points allowed. Washington averages 351 yards per game on offense including 228 passing and 124 rushing yards. The Huskies are #100 in total offense and #113 in rushing out of 128 teams. Washington allows 345 yards per game on defense including 216 passing and 130 rushing yards. The Huskies are in the top 35 in total and rush defense. Washington has forced 10 turnovers but has 12 of their own. The Huskies average 46 penalty yards per game and opponents average 58. Washington is 29/83 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 45/114. The Huskies have forced 16 sacks and allowed 16 this season. Washington is 15/18 scoring in the red zone with 10 touchdowns and opponents are 17/22 with 8 touchdowns. Washington has a punt return for a touchdown along with a defensive touchdown, and has allowed a defensive touchdown.

Quarterback Jake Browning has completed 62% of his passes for 1,332 yards with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He is questionable with a shoulder injury. If he can’t go, Jeff Lindquist will likely start, but K.J. Carta-Samuels could see some action as well.

Running back Myles Gaskin has 79 carries for 498 yards and 5 touchdowns. Dwayne Washington has 36 carries for 153 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 19 catches for 240 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Receiver Joshua Perkins has 21 catches for 264 yards and a touchdown. Jaydon Mickens has 22 catches for 193 yards and a touchdown. Brayden Lenius has 12 catches for 173 yards. Darrell Daniels has 7 catches for 105 yards. Dante Pettis has 13 catches for 168 yards. John Ross is out for the season with a knee injury.

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Stanford is outscoring teams 39-22 this season. The Cardinal are #14 in scoring and #36 in points allowed. Stanford averages 451 yards per game on offense including 224 passing and 226 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #33 in total offense and #18 in rushing. On defense, Stanford is allowing 357 yards per game including 221 passing yards and 137 rushing yards. The Cardinal are in the top 40 in total and rush defense nationally. Stanford has forced 5 turnovers but has 5 of their own. The Cardinal average 48 penalty yards per game and opponents average 63. Stanford is 41/83 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 44/106. The Cardinal have forced 9 sacks and allowed 8 this season. Stanford is 24/28 scoring in the red zone with 20 touchdowns and opponents are 16/17 with 9 touchdowns.

Quarterback Kevin Hogan has completed 65.9% of his passes for 1,286 yards with 12 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 20 carries for 37 yards. Running back Christian McCaffrey has 130 carries for 844 yards and 5 touchdowns, plus 16 catches for 172 yards and a touchdown. Barry Sanders, Jr. has 32 carries for 272 yards and 4 touchdowns. Remound Wright has 41 carries for 128 yards and 7 touchdowns, along with 5 catches for 48 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver Michael Rector has 12 catches for 233 yards and 3 touchdowns. Austin Hooper has 15 catches for 227 yards and 3 touchdowns. Bryce Love has 6 catches for 158 yards and a touchdown, plus 64 rushing yards. Devon Cajuste has 15 catches for 167 yards and 2 touchdowns. Three defensive players are questionable or out Saturday.

Washington is 5-0 ATS after a straight up loss, 5-1 after an ATS loss and in road games, 4-1 on grass, 7-3 overall, 5-11 against teams with winning home records, and 17-42-2 in October. The under is 8-3 in this series recently.

Stanford is 7-0 ATS after passing for 170 yards or less, 6-0 in Pac 12 games, and after a cover, 24-5-1 after scoring more than 40 points, 4-1 in October and after a straight up win by 20 points or more, 25-10-1 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 45-19-1 after allowing 450 total yards or more, 36-16 at home, 35-16-1 on grass, 34-16-1 after a straight up win, and 44-21-1 overall.

Stanford has rushed for over 300 yards in three straight games. I don’t know if that trend will continue against the stout run defense of Washington. Still, I don’t think Washington has the firepower to keep up with Stanford. I think the Cardinal win comfortably.

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