Arizona Wildcats at California Golden Bears
Memorial Stadium – Berkeley, California
Saturday, November 2, 2013, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Arizona -14 1/2
Current Line: Arizona -15
Opening Total: 65
Current Total: 67 1/2
Opening Money Line: Arizona -600 / California +450
Current Money Line: Arizona -620 / California +495
The 5-2 Arizona Wildcats are tied for second in the Pac 12 South with USC and UCLA at 2-2. All three teams are behind 4-1 Arizona State. The Wildcats travel to Berkeley to take on the 1-7 California Golden Bears. The Golden Bears are 0-5 in the Pac 12 North. Colorado (0-4) is the only other winless team in Pac 12 conference play. The series is tied 14-14-2 between Arizona and California. The two teams haven’t played since a 10-9 Wildcat win in Tucson in 2010.
Arizona is coached by Rich Rodriguez. Arizona opened the season with 3 straight wins over Northern Arizona 35-0 and UTSA 38-13, both in Tucson, and a road win at UNLV 58-13. The Wildcats beat Utah 35-24 in Tucson and also has a road win at Colorado 44-20 last week. The Wildcats have road losses at Washington 31-13 and at USC 38-31. Arizona is 4-3 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season. The Wildcats were a 12 point favorite against Colorado and the total was 59.5.
Arizona took a 10-7 lead in the first quarter at Colorado. The Wildcats would expand the lead to 24-13 by halftime. Arizona kicked a field goal to go up 27-13 but Colorado pulled to within 27-20. Arizona scored the last 17 points of the game to make the final 44-20. The Wildcats had 670 total yards including 405 rushing yards. The Buffaloes had 349 total yards including 212 passing yards. Arizona had penalties for 69 yards and overcame 2 turnovers. Colorado had one turnover.
Arizona is outscoring teams 36-20 this season. The Wildcats are #30 nationally in scoring and #20 in points allowed. Arizona is averaging 465.3.2 yards per game including the nation’s 11th best rushing attack at 288 yards per game. The passing game is #109 out of 125 teams at 177.3 yards per game. Arizona is #34 in total offense. On defense, the Wildcats are allowing 366.3 yards per game including 201.3 passing and 165 yards per game. Arizona is #33 in total defense and #18 in pass defense. The Wildcats are +4 in turnovers with 12 takeaways. Arizona is 64/133 on third and fourth down conversions, and opponents are 49/130. Arizona averages 41 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 57. The Wildcats have forced 9 sacks and allowed 9. Arizona is 25/29 scoring in the red zone with 18 touchdowns, and opponents are 12/14 with 11 touchdowns. The Wildcats have 4 pick sixes this season.
Arizona quarterback B.J. Denker has completed 57.1% of his passes for 1,241 yards with 8 touchdowns and 3 picks. Denker also has 90 carries, 519 yards and 8 touchdowns. Running back Ka’Deem Carey has 156 carries, 920 yards and 10 touchdowns, along with 18 catches for 131 yards. Daniel Jenkins has 54 carries, 368 yards and a touchdown, along with 7 catches for 32 yards and a touchdown. Jared Baker, Javelle Allen and Kylan Butler will also get some carries. Allen and Butler each have a rushing touchdown.
Nate Phillips has 17 catches for 268 yards and 3 touchdowns. Garic Wharton has 12 catches for 214 yards and 2 touchdowns. Samajie Grant has 24 catches, for 177 yards and a touchdown. Terrence Miller and Johnny Jackson will also get some catches. Two Wildcat receivers, DaVonte Neal and Austin Hill, are listed as questionable or out, and so are five Arizona defensive players including 2 linebackers.
California is coached by Sonny Dykes. The only win for the Golden Bears came at home to FCS school Portland State 37-30. Cal has home losses to Northwestern 44-30, Ohio State 52-34, Washington State 44-22, and Oregon State 49-17, along with road losses at Oregon 55-16, at UCLA 37-10 and last week at Washingtion 41-17. The Golden Bears have lost 6 straight games by 18 points or more. Cal is 1-7 ATS and the total is 3-4-1 this season. The Golden Bears covered for the first time this season last week at Washington as 28 point dogs and the total was 66.
Washington jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead against Cal and would lead 24-7 at halftime. The Huskies expanded the lead to 38-7 at the end of the third. Washington made it 41-10 early in the fourth. The Golden Bears scored a touchdown with 5:06 left and lose by 24 getting the back door cover. Cal had 483 total yards including 352 passing yards. Washington cranked out 642 total yards including 380 passing and 262 rushing yards. The Bears had the only turnover of the game.
Cal is being outscored 44-23 this season. California is #97 in scoring and #122 in points allowed. The Golden Bears are #31 in total offense nationally at 468.2 yards per game including the 8th best passing attack at 356.4 yards per game. The rushing game is #110 nationally at 111.9 yards per game. On defense, California is allowing 541.2 yards per game including 350.9 passing yards and 190.4 rushing yards. The Golden Bears are #123 out of 125 in total offense, dead last in pass defense, and #91 in rushing defense. Cal is -12 in turnovers with 11 takeaways. Cal is averaging 73 penalty yards per game and their opponents are averaging 69 yards per game. The Bears are 66/176 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 54/131. California has forced 12 sacks this season but allowed 26. The Golden Bears are 22/31 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns, and opponents are 32/37 with 24 touchdowns. California has allowed two pick sixes and two punt returns for touchdowns this season.
California quarterback Jared Goff has completed 60.2% of his passes for 2,592 yards with 10 touchdowns and 7 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Back-up Zach Kline has thrown for 253 yards with 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Goff will start, but Kline could see some snaps. Running back Brendan Bigelow has 75 carries for 280 yards, plus 22 catches for 148 yards. Khalfani Muhammad has 46 carried for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 7 catches for 120 yards. Daniel Lasco has 46 carries, for 213 yards and 2 touchdowns, plus 8 catches for 55 yards. Jeffrey Coprich and Darren Ervin will also get some carries. Receiver Chris Harper has 58 catches, 796 yards and 5 touchdowns. Bryce Treggs has 54 catches, 591 yards and a touchdown. Richard Rodgers has 31 catches, 439 yards and a touchdown. James Grisom has only 6 catches but three of them went for touchdowns. Seven Cal defensive players are listed as out Saturday.
Arizona is 4-1 ATS after scoring 40 points or more, 11-24 after rushing for 200 yards or more, 2-5 on fieldturf, 1-4 after gaining, more than 450 yards, and in November, 0-5 against teams with losing home records. The under is 5-2 in this series recently.
California is 4-9 ATS after a cover, 7-19 after a straight up loss of 20 points or more, 5-16 against teams with winning records, 5-17 after a straight up loss, 4-17 overall, 1-5 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-6 after gaining 450 total yards or more, and after scoring 20 points or less, 1-7 after allowing more than 280 passing yards, 1-9 in Pac 12 games, and after allowing 40 points or more, 1-10 after allowing 200 rushing yards or more, 1-11 at home, and 0-4 after allowing 450 total yards or more. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 in this series. Cal is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 against Arizona, including 4-0 in Berkeley.
While California has a great passing offense, the problem for the Bears is their defense is the worst in the country. They can’t stop anyone. Arizona should run up and down the field on them as most teams have. The Wildcats win going away in a high scoring shootout.
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