Pac 12 College Football Betting Week 10: USC Trojans at Oregon State Beavers

Southern California Trojans at Oregon State Beavers
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon

Friday, November 1, 2013, 9:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Opening Line: Oregon State -2
Current Line: Oregon State: -3 1/2
Opening Total: 54
Current Total: 52 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon State -185 / USC +160
Current Money Line: Oregon State -190 / USC +165

Oregon State is a 3.5 point favorite at home against USC Friday night in a key Pac 12 game.
Oregon State is a 3.5 point favorite at home against USC Friday night in a key Pac 12 game.

The 6-2 Oregon State Beavers are in third place in the Pac 12 North Division at 4-1 behind 5-0 Oregon and 5-1 Stanford. The Beavers look to rebound from a 20-12 home loss to Stanford last week that snapped a 6 game winning streak as OSU hosts the 5-3 USC Trojans Friday night. The Trojans are tied for second in the Pac 12 South with Arizona and UCLA at 2-2. All three teams trail 3-1 Arizona State. While USC leads the series against Oregon State 59-11-4 the teams have split the last 6 meetings. The Trojans have lost in their last 3 trips to Corvallis, including 36-7 in 2010 which was the last meeting between the schools.

USC is coached by interim coach Ed Orgeron, who took over when Lane Kiffin was fired a few weeks ago. The Trojans have a home loss to Washington  State 10-7, and road losses at Arizona State 62-41 and at Notre Dame 14-10. USC has home wins over Boston College 35-7, Utah State 17-14, Arizona 38-31 and last week against Utah 19-3 along with a road win at Hawaii 30-13. The Trojans are 3-5 ATS and the total is 2-6 this season. USC was a 5 point favorite against Utah and the total was 51.

After Utah took an early 3-0 lead, USC scored 16 straight points to close out the first half. Kicker Andre Heidari kicked his fourth field goal of the game early in the third to make it 19-3. Neither team would score again. USC had 260 total yards including 230 passing yards and 14 first downs. Utah had 201 total yards and 13 first downs. The Utes had the only 4 turnovers of the game.

The Trojans are outscoring teams 25-19 this season. USC is #89 in scoring and #16 in points allowed out of 125 teams. USC is averaging 379.8 total yards per game, including 209.6 passing and 170.1 rushing yards. USC is #87 in total offense and #86 in passing.  The Trojans are allowing 317.2 total yards per game including just 105.4 rushing yards per game and 211.9 passing yards. USC is #15 in rush defense and #11 in total defense nationally. The pass defense is #30. USC is +3 in turnovers with 13 takeaways.  The Trojans have forced 27 sacks and allowed 20. USC is 34/116 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 45/133. The Trojans are averaging 59 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 48.  USC is 20/23 scoring in the red zone with 13 touchdowns, and opponents are 14/21 with 10 touchdowns. The Trojans have one pick six this season and have allowed two.

Cody Kessler and Max Wittek were splitting the snaps at quarterback but Kessler won the job as he has taken all of the snaps the last four games.  Kessler has thrown for 1,560 yards with 9 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with a rushing touchdown. Wittek has thrown for 117 yards with a pick.

Running back Tre Madden has 127 carries for 671 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with  14 catches for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns. Justin Davis has 53 carries, 361 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with a catch. He is out for the season with an ankle injury. Silas Redd has 48 carries, 192 yards and a touchdown, along with a catch. Javorius Allen has 29 carries, 137 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 3 catches. Running back D.J. Morgan is listed as questionable Friday with a knee injury.

Receiver Nelson Agholor has 30 catches, 539 yards and 3 touchdowns. Marqise Lee has 32 catches for 403 yards and a touchdown. He is questionable Friday with a knee injury after missing the last two games. Darreus Rogers has 12 catches for 129 yards.  Xavier Grimble has 10 catches, 127 yards and a touchdown. Tight end Randall Telfer is doubtful with a knee injury. Six defensive players and two offensive linemen are listed on the injury report for the Trojans.

Oregon State is coached by Mike Riley. After a season opening home loss to Eastern Washington 49-46, Oregon State won 6 straight games before losing the Stanford game last week . The Beavers have home wins over Hawaii 33-14 and against Colorado 44-17. OSU also has road wins at Utah 51-48 in overtime, San Diego State 34-30, at Washington State 52-24 and at California 49-17. The Beavers are 4-4 ATS and the total is 5-3 this season. Oregon State was an 4 point underdog against Stanford and the total was 56.5.

Stanford took a 7-3 halftime lead against Oregon State. Each team scored a touchdown in the third quarter but they both missed extra points to make it 13-9 going into the fourth. Stanford running back Tyler Gaffney scored his third rushing touchdown of the game early in the fourth to make it 20-9 Cardinal. After a Stanford lost fumble at their own 20, Oregon State would kick a field goal with 3 minutes to go to pull within 20-12. The Beavers kicked off deep and Stanford went three and out. Brandin Cooks returned the punt to the Stanford 43 for the Beavers. Oregon State took the ball to the Stanford 7 but the drive stalled and they turned it over on downs with a second left. Stanford had 273 total yards including 185 rushing yards. The Beavers had 288 total yards including 271 passing yards. Stanford had two turnovers and OSU had one.

Oregon State is outscoring teams 40-27 this season. Oregon State is #15 in scoring nationally.   The Beavers are averaging 457.4 yards per game including 420.8 passing and 66.6 rushing yards. The Beavers lead the nation in passing yards but are #124 out of 125 teams in rushing. OSU is #22 in total offense.  On defense, Oregon State is allowing 381.2 total yards per game including 242.9 passing and 138.4 rushing yards. OSU is #84 in pass defense but #32 against the rush. The Beavers are +11 in turnovers with 20 takeaways. The Beavers average 57 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 61. OSU is 58/129 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 38/113. The Beavers have forced 16 sacks and allowed 17 this season. Oregon State is 42/51 scoring in the red zone with 35 touchdowns and opponents are 23/25 with 14 touchdowns. The Beavers have 2 pick sixes and have allowed one.

OSU quarterback Sean Mannion has completed 69.1% of his passes for 3,262 yards with 30 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Mannion has been mentioned as a possible Heisman contender.  Running back Storm Woods has 72 carries 214 yards and 4 touchdowns, along with 32 catches for 305 yards and a touchdown. Terron Ward has 67 carries for 224 yards and 4 touchdowns,along with 23 catches for 219 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 85 catches, 1,256 yards and 13 touchdowns, along with 134 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Richard Mullaney has 38 catches, 606 yards and 3  touchdowns. Tight end Connor Hamlett has 25 catches, 198 yards and 4 touchdowns. He is questionable with a knee injury. Kevin Cummings, Caleb Smith and Kellen Clute each have at least two touchdown catches and Smith has 3. Smith is doubtful with a back injury.

USC is 11-4 ATS after gaining less than 275 total yards, 28-13 in November, 4-9 against teams with winning records, 8-21 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 3-8 overall, and after allowing 20 points or less, 1-5 after allowing 275 total yards or less, 1-10 after a straight up win and in road games, 0-7 against teams with winning home records, 0-5 after a cover, and 0-4 on fieldturf. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in this series recently.

Oregon State is 4-0 ATS after scoring 20 points or less, 7-1 after failing to cover, 4-1 after a straight up loss, in Pac 12 games, and on fieldturf, 10-3 after allowing less than 275 total yards, 7-3 after rushing for less than 100 yards, 9-4-1 against teams with winning records, 2-5 against teams with winning road records, 1-4 in Friday games and at home. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 in this series. The Beavers are 5-1 ATS in the last six overall against the Trojans and    5-0 ATS in Corvallis.

Stanford shut down the high octane Oregon State attack, and USC has a very good defense as well, However, the Trojans are banged up on defense. I don’t think they can score enough to keep up with Oregon State and I like the Beavers to win their fourth straight game in Corvallis against the Trojans.

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