Pac 12 College Football Betting Preview: #20 USC Trojans at #4 Washington Huskies

#20 USC Trojans at #4 Washington Huskies
Saturday, November 12, 2016, 7:30 pm Eastern, TV: Fox
Husky Stadium – Seattle, Washington
Opening Line: Washington -8
Current Line: Washington -7 1/2
Opening Total: 61 1/2
Current Total: 60 1/2
Opening Money Line: Washington -335 / USC +270
Current Money Line: Washington -300 / USC +250

Washington looks to remain undefeated as the host USC Saturday.
Washington looks to remain undefeated as the host USC Saturday.

The Washington Huskies are having their best season in sixteen years. The Huskies are 9-0 and ranked #4 in the playoff rankings. Washington is tied for first the Pac 12 North with arch-rival Washington State at 6-0. The Huskies look to remain undefeated as they host the #20 Southern California Trojans Saturday. USC is 6-3 overall and tied for second with Utah in the Pac 12 South behind 5-1 Colorado. After a 1-3 start, the Trojans have won five straight games.

USC leads the series 50-29-4 against Washington including 19-17-4 in Seattle. USC has won 9 of the last 13 games in this series, but Washington has won 3 of the last 5 including 17-12 last year in Los Angeles.

Southern Cal is coached by Clay Helton. The Trojans have a neutral site loss to Alabama 52-6 in Arlington, Texas, plus road losses at Stanford 27-10 and Utah 31-27. USC has home wins over Utah State 45-7, Arizona State 41-20, Colorado 21-17, Cal 45-24 and Oregon 45-20 last week, plus a road win at Arizona 48-14. The Trojans were 17 point favorites against Oregon and the total was 76.5. USC is 5-4 ATS and the total is 2-7 this season.

Washington is coached by Chris Petersen. The Huskies have home wins over Rutgers 48-13, Idaho 59-14, Portland State 41-3, Stanford 44-6 and Oregon State 41-1. Washington has road wins over Arizona 35-28 in overtime, Oregon 70-21, Utah 31-24 and California 66-27 last week. The Huskies were 19 point favorites against California and the total was 73.5. Washington is 5-4 ATS and the total is 8-1 this season.

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USC is outscoring teams 32-24 this season. The Trojans are #49 or better in both categories. Southern Cal averages 475 yards per game on offense including 265 passing yards and 211 rushing yards. The Trojans are #35 or better in all three categories. On defense, USC allows 373 total yards including 221 passing and 152 rushing yards per game. USC is -1 in turnovers with 14 giveaways. The Trojans average 72 penalty yards and opponents average 43 per game. USC is 58/128 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 61/154. USC has forced 16 sacks and allowed 9 this season. The Trojans are 31/39 scoring in the red zone with 26 touchdowns and opponents are 23/28 with 18 touchdowns.

Quarterback Sam Darnold has completed 67.9% of his passes for 1,874 yards with 20 touchdowns and 4 interceptions, plus he also has 41 carries for 172 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. He took over for Max Browne who has thrown for 507 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions.

Running back Ronald Jones II has 100 carries for 679 yards with 7 touchdowns, plus 7 catches for 62 yards and a touchdown. Justin Davis has 74 carries for 476 yards and 2 touchdowns and 10 catches for 89 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. Aca’Cedric Ware has 70 carries for 366 yards and 2 touchdowns. He is also probable with an ankle injury.

Receiver Juju-Smith Schuster has 48 catches for 641 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is probable with a back injury. Darreus Rogers has 38 catches for 487 yards with 2 touchdowns. Deontay Burnett has 31 catches for 329 yards and 4 touchdowns. Steven Mitchell has 24 catches for 226 yards and a touchdown. He is out for the season with a knee injury. Tyler Petite has 10 catches for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns. Daniel Imatorbhebhe has 7 catches for 114 yards and 3 touchdowns. Five defensive players are on the injury report.

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Washington is outscoring teams 48-17 this season. The Huskies are #2 in scoring and #11 in points allowed  nationally. Washington averages 499 yards per game on offense including 268 passing and 231 rushing yards. The Huskies are #31 or better in all three categories nationally. On defense, the Huskies allow 330 total yards including 182 passing yards and 148 rushing yards. Washington is #17 or better in total and pass defense. The Huskies are +15 in turnovers with 22 takeaways. Washington averages 45 penalty yards per game and opponents average 50. The Huskies are 48/101 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 55/163. Washington has forced 27 sacks and allowed 16 sacks this season. The Huskies are 38/41 with 33 touchdowns and opponents are 21/26 with 15 touchdowns. Washington has outscored teams 249-54 in the first half this season.

Quarterback Jake Browning has completed 67.7% of his passes for 2,273 yards with 34 touchdowns and 3 interceptions, along with 77 rushing yards on 41 carries and 4 touchdowns. He is a Heisman contender. K.J. Carta-Samuels has thrown for 104 yards and 3 touchdowns.

Running back Myles Gaskin has 151 carries for 952 yards and 8 touchdowns, plus 10 catches for 45 yards and a touchdown. Lavon Coleman has 66 carries for 600 yards and 3 touchdowns, plus 3 catches for 19 yards. Jamon Dotson has 55 carries for 255 yards and a touchdown, plus 3 catches for 67 yards and a touchdown.

Receiver John Ross has 44 catches for 742 yards and 14 touchdowns, along with 73 rushing yards and a touchdown. Dante Pettis has 37 catches for 574 yards and 11 touchdowns. Chico McClatcher has 18 catches for 356 yards and 4 touchdowns, plus 13 carries for 97 yards. Darrell Daniels has 14 catches for 239 yards and 2 touchdowns. Aaron Fuller has 10 catches and 2 touchdowns. Five other Huskies have a touchdown catch.

USC is 4-1 ATS in Pac 12 games, and overall, 4-9 after a cover, 5-12 after a straight up win, 2-5 on fieldturf, 8-21 in road games, 3-8 after a straight up win by 20 points or more, 1-4 against teams with winning home records, and 1-4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, and 1-5 after gaining 450 yards or more. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in this series recently. The under is 6-1-1 in this series recently.

Washington is 4-1 after gaining 450 yards or more, 6-2 in November, 8-3 on fieldturf, 9-4 after rushing for more than 200 yards, 1-4 after scoring 40 points or more and after a straight up win by 20 points or more. The home team is 5-2 ATS in this series recently. The Huskies are 4-1 ATS against the Trojans and have covered the last four games Seattle against USC.

USC has played really well after a slow start. Washington is on a mission though and does not have much margin for error if they want to make the playoffs. With a soft non-conference schedule, the Huskies will have to run the table in order to get into the semifinals. USC is 1-3 against ranked teams this season, and I think they lose this game too.

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