Stanford Cardinal at #8 UCLA Bruins
Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California
Friday, November 28, 2014, 3:30 pm Eastern, TV: ABC
Opening Line: UCLA -4 1/2
Current Line: UCLA -6 (-115)
Opening Total: 50
Current Total: 50
Current Money Line: UCLA -215 / Stanford +180
Current Money Line: UCLA -230 / Stanford +195
The 9-2 UCLA Bruins are 6-2 in the Pac 12 South and tied with Arizona and Arizona State for the division lead. The Bruins can clinch the division title and a third trip to the Pac 12 Championship game in the last 4 years with a win Friday at home against the 6-5 Stanford Cardinal. A UCLA loss would give the division title to the winner of Arizona and Arizona State who also play Friday afternoon. UCLA still has an outside shot of making the four team college football playoff but would need a lot to happen for that to occur. Stanford is 4-4 in the North Division, and in second place behind 7-1 Oregon who has already clinched a spot in the Pac 12 Championship game next Friday. The Cardinal have very little to play for besides a slightly better bowl game.
UCLA leads the series 45-37-3 against Stanford including 25-14-1 in Los Angeles. Stanford has won six straight games against UCLA including 24-10 last year in Stanford.
Stanford is coached by David Shaw. Stanford has home losses against USC 13-10 and Utah 20-17 in double overtime, plus road losses at Notre Dame 17-14, at Arizona State 26-10 and Oregon 45-16. The Cardinal have home wins over UC-Davis 45-0, Army 35-0, Washington State 34-17 and Oregon State 38-14 along with a road wins at Washington 20-13 and last week at California 38-17. The Cal win snapped a two game losing streak for the Cardinal. Stanford is 5-6 ATS and the total is 2-8. The Cardinal were 5.5 point favorites against California and the total was 56.
UCLA is coached by Jim Mora, Jr. The Bruins have road wins over Virginia 28-20, Arizona State 62-27, at California 36-34, at Colorado 40-37 in double overtime, and Washington 44-30, home wins over Memphis 42-35, Arizona 17-7, and last week against USC 38-20 and a “neutral site” win over Texas 20-17 in Arlington, Texas. The Bruins have won 5 straight games. UCLA lost at home to Utah 30-28, and at home Oregon 42-30. The Bruins are 4-7 ATS and the total is 4-6-1 this season. UCLA was a 3.5 point favorite against USC and the total was 62.
Stanford is outscoring teams 25-17 this season. The Cardinal are #7 in points allowed nationally and #89 in scoring. The Cardinal are averaging 382 yards per game on offense including 232 passing and 151 rushing yards. Stanford is #81 in total offense and #85 in rushing. On defense, Stanford is allowing 290 total yards per game, including 177 passing yards and 113 rushing yards. The Cardinal are #10 in pass defense and #6 in total defense nationally. Even the rush defense is #14 nationally. Stanford is -6 in turnovers with 14 takeaways. Stanford is 56/147 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 73/196. Stanford averages 51 penalty yards per game and opponents average 57. The Cardinal have forced 35 sacks and allowed 22 this season. Stanford is 32/46 scoring in the red zone with 23 touchdowns and opponents are 24/29 with 16 touchdowns. The Cardinal have 2 punt returns for touchdowns, and have allowed a defensive touchdown.
Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan has completed 64.5% of his passes for 2,369 yards with 15 touchdowns and 8 interceptions, plus 5 rushing touchdowns and 199 yards on 77 carries. Running back Remound Wright has 112 carries for 488 yards and 6 touchdowns, plus 5 catches. Barry Sanders, Jr. has 51 carries for 300 yards, plus 6 catches. Kelsey Young has 53 carries for 305 yards, plus 5 catches. Fullback Patrick Skov has 4 rushing touchdowns and is probable for undisclosed reasons. Receiver Ty Montgomery has 61 catches for 604 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also has a rushing touchdown and 2 punt returns for touchdowns. Montgomery is out with a shoulder injury. Austin Hooper has 37 catches for 377 yards and 2 touchdowns. Devon Cajuste has 28 catches for 460 yards and 3 of them went for touchdowns.
UCLA is outscoring teams 35-27. The Bruins are averaging 487 yards per game including 278 passing and 209 rushing. UCLA is in the top 32 nationally in all offensive categories. On defense, UCLA is allowing 398 yards per game including 244 passing and 154 rushing. The Bruins are #93 nationally out of 128 teams in pass defense. UCLA is even in turnovers with 14 takeaways. The Bruins average 74 penalty yards per game and opponents are averaging 51. UCLA is 82/184 on third and fourth down conversions and opponents are 79/196. The Bruins have forced 22 sacks and allowed 33 this season. UCLA is 43/45 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns and opponents are 31/38 with 22 touchdowns. The Bruins have five defensive/special teams scores this season, including three against Virginia, and UCLA has allowed 2 pick sixes.
UCLA quarterback Brett Hundley has completed 72% of his passes for 2,873 yards with 20 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 142 carries for 566 yards and 8 touchdowns. Running back Paul Perkins has 213 carries for 1,262 yards and 7 touchdowns, plus 24 catches for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns. Jordan James, Nate Starks and Myles Jack will also get some carries. Jordan Payton has 61 catches for 870 yards and 7 touchdowns. Thomas Duarte has 23 catches for 458 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is questionable with a leg injury. Eldridge Massington has 25 catches for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns. Devin Fuller has 50 catches for 390 yards and a touchdown. Nate Iese has only 12 catches but 2 touchdowns. Four defensive players and three wide receivers are questionable or out for the Bruins.
Stanford is 21-9-1 ATS after rushing for 200 yards or more, 1-4 after allowing less than 20 points, 1-5 against teams teams with winning records and overall, 0-4 against teams with winning home records, 0-6 after a straight up win, 0-7 after a cover, and after a straight up win of more than 20 points. The Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 against the Bruins and were favored in each of those contests.
UCLA is 4-0 ATS in November, 4-1 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards, 8-3 after a cover, 16-6 against teams with winning road records, 5-2 in Friday games, and 1-4 after passing for more than 280 yards. The under is 9-4 in this series recently including 5-1 in Pasadena.
Stanford only has one win over a team currently over .500, and that came against Washington. I don’t think Stanford can score enough to keep up with UCLA, and the Bruins should win this comfortably.