Pac 12 College Basketball Picks: Oregon State Beavers at #6 Arizona Wildcats

Oregon State Beavers at #6 Arizona Wildcats
McKale Center – Tucson, Arizona

Friday, January 30, 2015, 10:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Opening Line: Arizona -17
Current Line: Arizona -18
Opening Total: 120
Current Total: 120 1/2
Opening Money Line: Arizona -2335 / Oregon State +1565
Current Money Line: Arizona -2775 / Oregon State +1725

Arizona is an 18 point favorite against Oregon State Friday night.
Arizona is an 18 point favorite against Oregon State Friday night.

The 19-2 Arizona Wildcats lead the Pac 12 with a 7-1 record over 6-2 Utah and Stanford. The Wildcats host the 14-6 Oregon State Beavers Friday night. Oregon State is 5-3 in conference and alone in fourth place.

Oregon State handed Arizona  their only conference loss 58-56 in Corvallis January 11. Arizona had won 7 straight games in the series before that upset. Overall, Arizona leads the series 58-21 including 31-6 in Tucson. Oregon State has only won once in Tucson since 1983 in 2010.

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Oregon State is coached by Wayne Tinkle. The Beavers have neutral site losses to Oklahoma State and Auburn in a tournament in Las Vegas, plus road losses at Quinnipiac, Oregon, Washington, and Arizona State 73-55 Wednesday. The Arizona State loss snapped a 3 game winning streak for the Beavers. Oregon State has home wins over Rice, Oral Roberts, Mississippi State, DePaul, UC-Santa Barbara, Arizona State, Arizona, and Washington State, along with road wins at Portland, UCLA and USC. The Beavers are 13-6 ATS and the total is 5-10 this season. OSU was a 7 point underdog at Arizona State and the total was 116.5.

Arizona is coached by Sean Miller. The Wildcats have road losses at UNLV and Oregon State. Arizona has home wins over CS-Northridge, UC-Irvine, Gonzaga, Michigan, Oakland, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah and Oregon 90-56 Wednesday. Arizona has won 5 straight games. The Wildcats also have neutral sight wins over Missouri, Kansas State and San Diego State in the Maui Invitational, and road wins over UTEP, Oregon, Stanford and California. Arizona is 12-9 ATS and the total is 9-12 this season. The Wildcats were 15 point favorites against Oregon and the total was 146.5.

Oregon State is outscoring teams 64-57 this season. The Beavers are #11 in points allowed nationally. OSU is shooting 44.2% from the field and 34.5% from 3 point range. The Beavers make 72.2% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 36.6% from the field and 28.3% from 3 point range. The Beavers are #11 or better nationally in both categories. Oregon State averages 33.8 rebounds per game and opponents average 27.7 per game. The Beavers are #42 nationally in rebounds allowed. Oregon State averages 12.5 assists, 12.2 turnovers, 7.6 steals and 4 blocks per game. Opponents average 10 assists, 14 turnovers, 6.5 steals and 3.1 blocks per game.

Guard Gary Payton II averages 13.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3 assists, 2.9 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Guard Victor Robbins averages 10.3 points and 3.5 rebounds per game. He is suspended until February 19 for violating team rules. Langston Morris-Walker averages 10 points, 4.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game. Malcolm Duvivier averages 9.6 points, 3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.1 steals per game. Olaf Schaftenaar averages 9.5 points, 3.8 rebounds and 2 assists per game. Jarmal Reid averages 7.7 points, 3 rebounds and 1.1 assists per game. Daniel Gomis averages 4.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game. Guards Alex Roth and Chai Baker are both out for the season.

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Arizona is outscoring teams 76-59 this season. The Wildcats are #29 in scoring and #32 in points allowed nationally. Arizona is shooting 49.8% from the field and 36.2% from 3 point range. The Wildcats are #7 in field goal percentage nationally. Arizona makes 68.8% of their free throws. Opponents are shooting 40.3% from the field and 33% from 3 point range. Arizona averages 35.6 rebounds per game and opponents average 24.7 per game. The Wildcats are #2 nationally in rebounds allowed. Arizona averages 13.9 assists, 11.5 turnovers, 7.3 steals and 3.2 blocks per game. Opponents average 10.1 assists, 14.6 turnovers, 5 steals and 2 blocks per game.

Forward Stanley Johnson averages 14.9 points, 6.9 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game. Brandon Ashley averages 11.3 points and 5.2 rebounds. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson averages 10.9 points, 6.4 rebounds 1.6 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. T.J. McConnell averages 9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists and 1.9 steals per game. Kaleb Tarczewski averages 8.8 points and 4.9 rebounds per game. Gabe York averages 9 points, 1.5 rebounds and 1.3 assists per game.

Oregon State is 5-0 ATS in Friday games, 4-1 against teams with winning records, 22-8-2 after a straight up loss, 20-8 after failing to over, 11-5 overall, 2-5 against teams with winning home records, and 1-4 in road games. The Beavers are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 against the Wildcats. The underdog has covered 7 of the last 10 games in this series.

Arizona is 4-0 ATS after a straight up win, against teams with winning records, overall and against Pac 12 teams, 6-1 at home, 4-1 after a cover, and after a straight up win of 20 points or more, 20-7 against teams with losing road records, and 1-4 in Friday games. Five of the last seven games in Tucson in the series have gone under the total. The home team has covered the last 6 games in this series recently.

Arizona should be fired up to get revenge against Oregon State for the upset 3 weeks ago. Still Oregon State has the defense to keep this close. i think Oregon State stays within the 18 point spread in a game likely played in the 50’s or 60’s.

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