PAC 12 Clash in Corvallis: Arizona St Sun Devils at #11 Oregon St Beavers

Arizona St Sun Devils at #11 Oregon St Beavers
Saturday, November, 3, 2012, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: ESPN2
Reser Stadium – Corvallis, Oregon
Opening Line: Oregon St -4
Current Line: Oregon St -3 1/2
Opening Total: 53 1/2
Current Total: 56
Opening Money Line: OSU -175 / ASU +155
Current Money Line: OSU -170 / ASU +150

Oregon St hosts Arizona St in a key Pac 12 battle Saturday night. The Beavers are 3.5 point favorites.

Both Arizona St and Oregon St are currently tied for second in their respective divisions in the Pac 12. The two teams meet Saturday night in Corvallis. The winner could move into a tie for first depending on who wins the showdown between division leaders Oregon and USC earlier in the day.

This is the 39th meeting between the Sun Devils and Beavers. Arizona St leads the series 25-12-1, but Oregon St is 8-6-1 at home. Arizona St won last year 35-20 in Tempe to snap a 3 game losing streak to Oregon St.

Arizona St is 5-3 overall and 3-2 in the Pac 12 under first year coach Todd Graham. The Sun Devils are tied with UCLA for second in the South division, but both are a half game behind USC. The Sun Devils have losses at Missouri 24-20 and home losses to Oregon 43-21 and last week against UCLA 45-43. ASU has lost 2 straight games. The Sun Devils have home wins against Northern Arizona 63-6, Illinois 45-14, Utah 37-7, and road wins at Cal 27-17 and Colorado 51-17. The Sun Devils are 5-3 ATS and the total is 3-4 this season. ASU was a 6 point favorite last week against UCLA and the total was 59.5.

Arizona St is averaging 477.1 yards per game including 284.8 passing yards and 192.4 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are outscoring opponents 38-22 this season. ASU is 29th or better nationally in total offense, passing, and scoring. The Sun Devils are +2 in turnovers with 14 giveaways. ASU has allowed 24 sacks. The Sun Devils are 54/130 on third and fourth down conversions and 37/48 scoring in the red zone with 29 touchdowns. On defense, Arizona St is allowing 322 yards per game including 148.4 passing yards and 173.8 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are #20 in total defense and #3 against the pass. They have forced 33 sacks and 14 turnovers this season. Sun Devil opponents are 52/140 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/26 scoring in the red zone with 19 touchdowns.

ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly has completed 147 of 217 passes (67.7%) for 2,008 yards with 19 touchdowns and 5 interceptions, along with 86 carries for 307 yards. Kelly has been sacked 19 times this season. Running back D.J. Foster has 67 carries, 371 yards and 2 touchdowns, along with 29 catches, 454 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Cameron Marshall has 86 carries, 349 yards and 5 touchdowns, along with 10 catches, 72 yards, and a touchdown. Marion Grice has 58 carries, 302 yards, and 6 touchdowns, along with 22 catches, 288 yards, and 6 touchdowns. Back-up quarterback Michael Eubank has 39 carries, 131 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has also thrown 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions this season. Receiver Chris Coyle has 38 catches, 473 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Rashad Ross has 20 catches, 314 yards, and a touchdown. He also has a kick return for a touchdown. Kevin Ozier has 17 catches, 246 yards and 5 touchdowns. Six defensive players and 2 offensive line men are on the ASU injury report.

Oregon St is 6-1 this season and 4-1 in the Pac 12 under coach Mike Riley. The Beavers lost their first game of the season 20-17 last week at Washington. The loss dropped them into a second place tie with Stanford in the North division a game behind Oregon. Oregon St has home wins over Wisconsin 10-7, Washington St 38-35, and against Utah 21-7, along with road wins at UCLA 27-20, Arizona 38-35, and BYU 42-24. The Beavers are 5-2 ATS and the total is 2-5 this season. Oregon St was a 3 point favorite in the Washington game last week and the  total was 49.

Oregon St is averaging 420.1 yards per game on offense, including 311.7 passing yards and 108.4 rushing yards. The Beavers are #15 nationally in passing but #114 in rushing. OSU is outscoring teams 25-17 this season. The Beavers are +7 in turnovers with 10 giveaways. Oregon St is averaging 78 penalty yards per game and has allowed 13 sacks. The Beavers are 40/115 on third and fourth down conversions, and 22/27 scoring in the red zone with 16 touchdowns. On defense, Oregon St is allowing 344.1 yards per game, including 260.7 passing yards and 83.4 rushing yards. The Beavers are #98 against the pass, but have the nation’s 5th best rush defense. Oregon St has forced 17 turnovers and 18 sacks. Beaver opponents are 31/109 on third and fourth down conversions and 18/22 scoring in the red zone with 12 touchdowns.

Oregon St quarterback Sean Mannion returned after missing two games with a  knee injury. He struggled in the loss to Washington with 4 interceptions. Cody Vaz started the games against BYU and Utah and will start against Arizona St. Mannion will be his back-up. Mannion has completed 125 of 203 passes (61.6%) for 1,579 yards with 8 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. He has been sacked 10 times. Vaz is 43/69 passing (62.3%) for 603 yards with 4 touchdowns. He has been sacked three times. Running back Storm Woods has 117 carries, 540 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 23 catches for 184 yards. He is probable with a knee injury. Malcolm Agnew has 38 carries for 156 yards. Tyler Anderson has 10 carries, but 2 rushing touchdowns. Receiver Brandin Cooks has 44 catches, 790 yards and 3 touchdowns, along with 13 carries for 61 yards. Markus Wheaton has 50 catches, 679 yards and 6 touchdowns, along with 10 carries, 38 yards and a touchdown. Wheaton is probable with a head injury. Besides Woods no other receiver has more than 13 catches.

Arizona St is 11-5-2 ATS after gaining more than 450 yards, 9-23-2 in road games against teams with winning home records, 1-5 after scoring 40 points or more, after a straight up loss, after failing to cover, and after rushing for 200 yards or more, 0-4 after allowing 200 yards rushing, 0-4 in November, and 0-3-1 on fieldturf. The underdog and road team are 3-0-1 ATS in this series recently.

Oregon St is 4-0 ATS after allowing 100 rushing yards or less, 5-0-1 against teams with winning records, 6-2-1 overall, 42-20-2 after passing for more than 280 yards, 1-3-1 in November, and 1-4 at home against teams with winning road records. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 in this series, and 4-1 in the last 5 in Corvallis.

Oregon St has one of the nation’s best passing attacks, but Arizona St is elite on passing defense. The Beavers do struggle against the pass, but have a great rush defense. Arizona St has a balanced attack, and could do some damage through the air. I think this game will be close, but I like Oregon St at home.

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