Pac 12 Bubble Teams Meet in Eugene: Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon Ducks

Colorado Buffaloes at Oregon Ducks
Matthew Knight Arena – Eugene, Oregon
Thursday, March 1, 2012, 10:30 pm Eastern, TV: FSN
Opening Line: Oregon -5
Current Line: Oregon -6
Opening Total: 137
Current Total: 137 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -250 / Colorado +210
Current Money Line: Oregon -260 / Colorado +220

Oregon and Colorado meet Thursday in Eugene in a battle of bubble teams. Oregon is a 6 point home favorite.

Both Oregon and Colorado are 11-5 in Pac 12 play, and tied for fourth place. They meet in a crucial game in Eugene Thursday night. Not only do the top 4 teams get byes in the upcoming Pac 12 tournament, but the 19-9 Buffaloes and 20-8 Ducks are both firmly on the bubble for the NCAA tournament. The winner will bolster their resume, and the loser could be eliminated from contention for an at large bid. Colorado had a huge win at home against then first place Cal Sunday 70-57. Oregon escaped with a 74-73 at arch rival Oregon St Sunday. Colorado is 4-2 all time against Oregon. The Buffaloes won 72-71 in Boulder last month in the first ever conference meeting between the schools. Colorado hasn’t played in Eugene since the 2004 NIT.

Colorado is coached by Thad Boyle. The Buffaloes have losses to Wichita St, Maryland, Colorado St, Wyoming, Cal, Stanford twice, UCLA, and Arizona. Colorado has wins over Western Michigan, Air Force, Georgia, Fresno St, Utah twice, Washington, Washington St, Arizona St twice, Arizona, USC, and Oregon St.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses to Vanderbilt, BYU, Virginia, Washington, Cal twice, and Oregon St. Oregon has wins over Nebraska, UTEP, Fresno St, Washington St twice, Stanford twice, Arizona St, Arizona, USC, UCLA, Utah, and Washington.

Colorado is outscoring opponents 68-62. The Buffaloes are shooting 44.3% from the field and 35.1% from 3 point range. Colorado makes 69.6% of their free throws. The Buffaloes average 37 rebounds a game with a rebounding margin of +4.6. Colorado averages 12.3 assists, 13.2 turnovers, 5.5 steals, and 3.3 blocks a game. Buffalo opponents are shooting 39.9% from the field and 32.4% from 3 point range. Colorado forces 12.4 turnovers a game.

Colorado guard Carlon Brown averages 11.9 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game. He makes 31.4% of his 3 point shots.  Austin Dufault averages 11.3 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 1 assist a game. He makes 38.0% of his 3 point attempts. Andre Robinson averages 11 points, 11.4 rebounds, 1 assist, 1.1 steals, and 1.9 blocks a game. He leads the Buffs in rebounds, steals and blocks.  Spencer Dinwiddie averages 10.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.8 assists a game. He is shooting 45.6% from 3 point range. Askia Booker averages 9.2 points, 3 rebounds, and 1.5 assists a game. Nate Tomlinson leads the team in assists with 3.3 a game.

Oregon is outscoring opponents 71-67 this season. The Ducks are shooting 45.7% from the field, including 36.8% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 70.3% of their free throws. The Ducks average 34 rebounds a game, and have a rebounding margin of +1.2. Oregon averages 13.5 assists, 13.7 turnovers, 5.8 steals, and 3.5 blocks a game. Duck opponents are shooting 43.4% from the field, including 34.2% from 3 point range. The Ducks force 12.8 turnovers a game.

Oregon guard Devoe Joseph, a transfer from Minnesota, averages 16.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. He is shooting 43.3% from 3 point range.  He leads the team in scoring and steals. E.J. Singler averages 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds to lead the team, and 2.2 assists a game. Garrett Sim averages 12 points, 2.4 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.1 steals a game. He is shooting 45.2% from 3 point range.  Olu Ashaolu averages 8.7 points and 5 rebounds a game to lead the team. Tony Woods averages 6.1 points, 3.8 rebounds,  and 1.5 blocks a game to lead the team. Johnathan Loyd averages 3.3 assists to lead the team.

Oregon is 14-11 ATS and the total is 11-14 this season. Colorado is 13-11 ATS and the total is 9-15 this season. The Buffaloes are 5-1 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 points or less, including 4-1 on the road, 8-2 in Thursday games, 10-4 as an underdog, including 7-3 on the road, 2-6 against teams with winning records, 0-5 after a straight up win and a cover. The Ducks are 7-0 ATS overall and in Pac 12 games, 6-0 after a cover and against teams with winning records, 4-0 after a straight up win,  6-1 in Thursday games, and 2-5 as a home favorite.

These two teams are pretty evenly matched. Colorado won by 1 point in Boulder, and I see this as another close game with Oregon coming out on top at home.

Our college basketball handicappers are red hot as as March arrives. Don’t miss out on any more winners from now until they cut down the nets in New Orleans next month.

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