Pac 12 Betting Preview: Utah Utes at Arizona St Sun Devils

Utah Utes at Arizona St Sun Devils
Saturday, September 22, 2012, 10:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network

Sun Devil Stadium – Tempe, Arizona
Opening Line: Arizona St -5 1/2
Current Line: Arizona St -7
Opening Total: 51 1/2
Current Total: 50
Opening Money Line: ASU -275 / Utah +235
Current Money Line: ASU -290 / Utah +240

Arizona St is a 7 point favorite at home in the Pac 12 opener against Utah Saturday night. The Sun Devils have beaten the Utes 8 straight times.

The Utah Utes and Arizona St Sun Devils open Pac 12 play Saturday night in Tempe. This is the 24th meeting between the two schools. Arizona St leads the series 17-6, including 12-3 in Tempe. Until last year when Utah joined the     Pac 12 South division, the two schools hadn’t played since 1993. They were both in the WAC from 1962-1977. Arizona St has won 8 straight games in the series, including last year in Salt Lake City 35-14. The Utes haven’t beaten Arizona St in Tempe since 1976, also their last win in the series.

The Utah Utes are 2-1 this season under coach Kyle Whittingham. The Utes have home wins over Northern Colorado 41-0 and rival BYU 24-21. Utah lost 27-20 at Utah St in overtime two weeks ago. Utah is averaging 328 total yards per game, including 215.3 passing yards and 112.7 rushing yards. On defense, Utah is allowing 268.7 yards per game including 167 passing yards and 101.7 rushing yards. Utah is outscoring opponents 28.3-16 this season. The Utes are 1-2 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

Utah was a 3.5 point underdog at home against BYU last week, and the total was 44.5. The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the first half to make it 7-7 at the half. Utah scored 17 points in the third quarter, including a 47 yard fumble return for a touchdown, and a 39 yard TD pass, to make it 24-7. BYU pulled to within 24-21 with 3:39 left in the fourth.

What followed was one of the wildest finishes in college football in recent memory. BYU kicked deep instead of trying the onside kick. The Cougars forced a punt with 1:11 left. BYU got it all the way to the Utah 34, but the clock expired. Utah fans rushed the field, but replays showed there was one second left on the clock. The Cougars attempted the game tying 51 yard field goal but it was blocked. The Utah fans rushed the field again, but the referees said they got on the field too soon while the play was still alive, and Utah was given a 15 yard unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. BYU got another shot from 36 yards. However, the kick bounced off the right upright, and Utah fans were finally able to rush the field for real this time.

Utah had 245 total yards including 196 passing yards. Quarterback Jon Hays threw two touchdown passes. BYU had 312 total yards including 206 passing yards. The two teams combined for 22 penalties. BYU had 2 turnovers, and Utah had none.

Hays took over as the starter for Jordan Wynn, who is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Hays has completed 30 of 53 passes (56.6%) for 350 yards and 3 touchdowns and no picks. Running back John White IV has 51 carries, 215 yards, and a touchdown. He also has 5 catches for 36 yards. He is probable with an ankle injury. If he can’t go, look for Jarell Oliver to get most of the carries. He has 19 carries for 47 yards. Seven Ute Receivers have at least 4 catches, but none has more than nine. Dres Anderson, Kenneth Scott, Jake Murphy, and DeVonte Christopher are the top receivers.

Arizona St is 2-1 this season under first year coach Todd Graham. The Sun Devils started off the season with home blowouts over Northern Arizona 63-6 and Illinois 45-14. Arizona St lost 24-20 at Missouri last week. The Sun Devils are averaging 453.3 yards per game, including 250 passing yards and 203.3 rushing yards. On defense, ASU is allowing 295.7 total yards per game, including 147.3 passing yards and 148.3 rushing yards. The Sun Devils are outscoring opponents 42.7-14.7 this season. ASU is 2-1 ATS and the total is 1-1 this season.

Arizona St was a 3.5 point underdog at Missouri last week, and the total was 60.5. Missouri jumped out to a 17-0 lead in the second quarter. The Sun Devils scored before halftime to make it 17-7. Missouri scored in the third to make it 24-7. Arizona St scored two fourth quarter touchdowns to make it 24-20, but they missed a two point conversion that would have pulled them within 3 points.

Neither team scored for the last 11:10 in the game. The Sun Devils would get two more possessions. ASU got to the Missouri 3 yard line but went for it on 4th and goal with 3:36 left. It was an incomplete pass. Missouri went 3 and out and punted with 1:58 left. The Sun Devils returned the punt to the Missouri 21, but ASU quarterback Taylor Kelly threw an interception that sealed the win for the Tigers. It was the fourth Arizona St turnover of the day. Missouri had one turnover, and the teams combined for 17 penalties.

The Sun Devils had 296 total yards, including 183 passing yards. Kelly completed 14 of 23 passes for 178 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions, along with 15 carries for 59 yards. Missouri had 318 total yards including 192 passing yards. Missouri missed 3 of 4 attempted field goals.

Kelly has completed 47 of 65 passes (72.3%) for 674 yards with 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, along with 26 carries for 128 yards. Running back Marion Grice has 22 carries, 149 yards and 5 touchdowns. D.J. Foster, Cameron Marshall, and Michael Eubank each have at least 20 carries, 68 yards and 2 touchdowns. Marshall has 3 touchdown runs. Foster has 263 combined rushing and receiving yards with 3 touchdowns. Receiver Chris Coyle has 17 catches, 239 yards, and 2 touchdowns.

Utah is 4-1 ATS after rushing for 100 yards or less, 5-11 in conference games, 2-5 in road games against teams with winning home records, and after a cover, and 2-10 after a straight up win.

Arizona St is 3-0-1 ATS at home against teams with losing road records, 2-6 overall, 0-4 after a straight up loss and an ATS loss, and in Pac 12 games.

Arizona St has not allowed a point in the fourth quarter this year. Utah has struggled on offense, especially in the running game. I think Arizona St wins by double digits at home.

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  1. I agree, I think ASU will win by double figures also. They are going to take the frustrations of that Missouri loss out on Utah. I think Utah is a good team, but ASU will be difficult to beat at home this year.

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