Pac 12 Betting Picks: Stanford Cardinal at #23 Oregon Ducks

Stanford Cardinal at #23 Oregon Ducks
Saturday, February 23, 2013, 8:00 pm Eastern, TV: Pac 12 Network
Matthew Knight Arena – Eugene, Oregon
Opening Line: Oregon -4 1/2
Current Line: Oregon -5
Opening Total: 136
Current Total: 134 1/2
Opening Money Line: Oregon -215 / Stanford +185
Current Money Line: Oregon -215 / Stanford +185

Stanford is a 5 point underdog at Oregon in a key Pac 12 game Saturday night.
Stanford is a 5 point underdog at Oregon in a key Pac 12 game Saturday night.

Three games separates first place from seventh place in the parity driven Pac 12 with only 5 games to go in the regular season. Arizona and Oregon lead the conference with 10-4 records, but UCLA is a half game back at 9-4. Arizona St, California, and Colorado are all within 2 games of first. Even USC, Stanford, and maybe Washington all have an outside shot of winning the regular season title.

The 21-6 Oregon Ducks host the 16-11 Stanford Cardinal Saturday night. The Cardinal are 7-7 and three games behind the conference leaders. Stanford leads the all-time series 90-47 against Oregon, and has won 6 of the last 10. The Cardinal beat the Ducks 76-52 January 30 in Palo Alto.

Stanford is coached by Johnny Dawkins. The Cardinal have home losses to Belmont and Washington, USC, and UCLA, against Missouri and Minnesota in a tournament in the Bahamas, and road losses at North Carolina St, USC, UCLA, Colorado, and Arizona. Stanford has key wins over San Francisco (in Oakland), CS-Fullerton,  Northern Iowa in the Bahamas, at Northwestern, Washington St, Cal, at Utah, Oregon, Oregon St twice, and at Arizona St. The Cardinal beat Oregon St 82-72 Thursday night in Corvallis.  The Cardinal are 11-13-1 ATS and the total is 10-8 this season.

Stanford is outscoring teams  70-66. The Cardinal are shooting 41.5% from the field and 34.3% from 3 point range. Stanford makes 72.5% of their free throws. The Cardinal average 37.3 rebounds per game, and give up 32 per game. Stanford opponents are shooting 41.8% from the field and 33.3% from 3 point range. The Cardinal average 12 assists, 6 steals, 4 blocks, and 12 turnovers per game.

Forward Dwight Powell averages 15.4 points, 8.4 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.1 blocks. Guard Chasson Randle averages 13.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. Forward Josh Huestis averages 10.6 points, 9.4 rebounds, 2 blocks and an assist. Guard Aaron Bright averages 8.9 points and 3.3 assists per game. Andy Brown and John Gage both average around  6 points per game. Rosco Allen, Robbie Lemons, Christian Sanders, and Gabriel Harris make up the rest of the rotation. Forward Anthony Brown is out for the season with a leg injury.

Oregon is coached by Dana Altman. The Ducks have losses Cincinnati in a tournament in Las Vegas and at UTEP in triple overtime, Stanford, Cal twice, and a home loss to Colorado. The Ducks lost 48-46 at home to Cal Thursday night. Oregon has key wins over Vanderbilt, at UNLV, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon St, Arizona, and Arizona St at UCLA and USC, and at home against Washington St twice, Washington twice, and Utah. The Ducks had won 3 straight games before the Cal loss Thursday night. Oregon is 10-15 ATS and the total is 6-13 this season.

Oregon is outscoring teams 72-62 this season. The Ducks are shooting 44.8% from the field and 31.4% from 3 point range. Oregon makes 71.9% of their free throws. The Ducks are #32 in rebounding with 38.3 per game. Oregon is 36th in rebounds allowed, with 27.6 per game. Duck opponents are shooting 40.5% from the field and 33.2% from 3 point range. Oregon averages 13 assists, 9 steals, 4 blocks and 15 turnovers.

Forward E.J. Singler averages 11.6 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists and 1.1 steals a game. Oregon guard Damyean Dotson averages 11.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1 assist. Guard Dominic Artis averages 10.2 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. Artis is questionable with a foot injury. Forward Carlos Emory averages 10.5 points and 4.4 rebounds. Center Tony Woods averages 9.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1 block per game.  Forward Arsalan Kazemi averages 8.9 points, 10 rebounds, 1.2 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Waverly Austin, Ben Carter and and Johnathan Loyd make up the rest of the rotation.

Stanford is 4-0 ATS in road games, and against teams with winning road records, 2-5 after a cover, and 2-6 after a straight up win. The under is 11-4-1 in this series recently and 6-2 in Eugene.

Oregon is 9-3 ATS after allowing 50 points or less, 1-4 after scoring less than 50 points, 1-6 after failing to cover, and against teams with winning records. 1-8 overall, and against Pac 12 teams, 0-4 after a straight up loss, in Saturday games, and against teams with losing road records, and 0-6 at home.

Oregon started off the season 18-2 but has gone 3-4 since then. The Ducks are looking to avoid getting swept by the two Pac 12 Bay Area schools. Stanford hasn’t swept both games on a Pac 12 weekend road trip since 2010.  I like Oregon at home, but it won’t be easy.

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