Pac 12 Betting Picks: Southern Cal Trojans at #6 Arizona Wildcats

Southern California Trojans at #6 Arizona Wildcats
Saturday, January 26, 2013, 7:00 pm Eastern, TV: ESPNU
McKale Center – Tucson, Arizona
Opening Line: Arizona -13 1/2
Current Line: Arizona -14
Opening Total: 135 1/2
Current Total: 139 1/2

Opening Money Line: Arizona -1300 / USC +850
Current Money Line: Arizona -1300 / USC +850

Arizona is a 14 point favorite against USC Saturday.
Arizona is a 14 point favorite against USC Saturday.

The 16-2 Arizona Wildcats are 4-2 in the Pac 12. The currently #6 Wildcats are coming off their second loss of the season Thursday night at home against UCLA 84-73. Arizona is tied with Arizona St and Washington for third in the Pac 12 behind 6-0 Oregon and 6-1 UCLA.

The Wildcats look to rebound as the face the 8-12 USC Trojans Saturday. The Trojans are 3-4 in the Pac 12. USC lost Thursday at Arizona St 98-93 in overtime. The Trojans are tied with Colorado for 5th in the Pac 12 but they are behind 7 other teams.

Arizona leads the series 60-40, but USC is 30-25 in Los Angeles. The Wildcats have won 21 of the last 31 in the series including both meetings last year by double digits.

Last week USC fired coach Kevin O’Neill. Bob Cantu is the interim coach. The Trojans have key wins over Long Beach St, Texas in the Maui Invitational, Dayton, Stanford, and Oregon St and a road win at Utah. Southern Cal has losses to Illinois and Marquette in Maui, at home against San Diego St, Minnesota, UC-Irvine, California and Oregon, along with road losses at Nebraska, New Mexico, Georgia, and Colorado. The Trojans are 7-11-1 ATS and the total is 10-5 this season.

USC is being outscored 66.6-66 this season. The Trojans are shooting 43.4% from the field and 35.2% from 3 point range. USC makes 66.5% of their free throws. The Trojans average 34.6 rebounds per game, and they give up 31.6 per game. USC opponents are shooting 41.7% from the field and 36.8% from 3 point range. The Trojans average 13 assists, 6 steals, 5 blocks, and 14 turnovers a game.

Forward Eric Wise averages 12.9 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1 steal a game. Guard J.T. Terrell averages 10.6 points, and 1.9 rebounds per game. Guard Byron Wesley averages 10.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 2.2 assists per game. Guard Jio Fontan averages 9.2 points, 4.9 assists. and 1.4 rebounds per game. Center Omar Oraby averages 7.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks per game. Forward Dewayne Dedmon averages 6.8 points, 7.1 rebounds, 2 blocks and 1.1 steals per game. Aaron Fuller and Chass Bryan also get significant minutes.

Arizona is coached by Sean Miller. The only other loss for Arizona came at Oregon.  The Wildcats have key home wins over UTEP, Long Beach St, Southern Miss, Florida, Utah and Colorado, along with road wins over Texas Tech, Clemson, Oregon St and Arizona St Saturday 71-54. The Wildcats also won a tournament in Hawaii with wins over Miami-(FL) and San Diego St. Arizona is 8-8 this season, and the total is 3-9-1 this season.

Arizona is outscoring teams 76-63 this season. Arizona is #37 in scoring nationally. The Wildcats are shooting  45.7% from the field and 37.1% from 3 point range. Arizona is 9th in free throw shooting at 76.3% from the line. The Wildcats average 37.7 rebounds per game, and are 11th in rebounds allowed with 25.8 per game. Arizona opponents are shooting 40.7% from the field and 36.6% from 3 point range. The Wildcats average 14 assists, 7 steals, 4 blocks, and 14 turnovers a game.

Guard Mark Lyons averages 15.2 points, 3.1 assists, and 1.8 rebounds per game. Forward Solomon Hill averages 13.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.2 steals per game. Guard Nick Johnson averages 13.3 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. Guard-forward Kevin Parrom averages 8.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2 assists per game. Brandon Ashley averages 7.9 points and 5.8 rebounds per game. Kaleb Tarczewski averages 5.6 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Grant Jarrett and Jordin Mayes make up the rest of the rotation.

USC is 4-0 ATS after allowing more than 90 points, 4-1 after scoring more than 90 points, 16-35-1 overall, 5-12-1 after failing to cover, 7-18 against Pac 12 teams, 8-21-1 against teams with winning records, 3-8-1 in road games against teams with winning home records, 7-20-1 after a straight up loss, 2-7-1 in road games, and 3-12 in Saturday games.The underdog is 10-4 ATS in this series recently. Four of the last 5 games in Tucson have gone over the total between these teams.

Arizona is 9-2 ATS after a straight up win, 2-7 after a double digit home loss, 1-4 after failing to cover, 1-6 overall, and in Pac 12 games, and 0-4 at home. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 in this series. Arizona is 4-1 ATS overall, and in Tucson in this series recently.

Arizona should be angry after losing to rival UCLA Thursday. The Bruins jumped out to a 20-5 lead and never looked back. Arizona fought back but they would never get the lead under 5 points. USC isn’t as bad as their record would indicate as they have a lot of close losses. Still, I like Arizona to win big at home.

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