San Francisco Giants (37-29) AT Arizona Diamondbacks (37-30)
June 14, 2011 at 9:40 PM EST
Moneyline:  ARI -116, SFG +106
Total:  7.5

SP:  SFG- Matt Cain; ARI- Josh Collmenter

No one expected the Diamondbacks to be this good.  Their Odds of winning the NL West set by Sportsbook prior to the season were +1800, and their odds at winning a world series were +10,000!

In that Season preview, I spoke of the Diamondbacks poor odds, but also of their youth:

Fortunately for Diamondback fans, they at least have hope in the youth of their team, as none of the regular players are older than 30, but on the other hand that speaks to the level of inexperience, and all fans know the importance of experience, especially in close games, most of which the Diamondbacks blew (both due toe the strikeouts and the poor pitching).  The odds really couldn’t be any more stacked against the Diamondbacks as they posted the third worst record in the league and don’t stack up favorably against their in-division rivals.

Instead of seeing a Diamondbacks team building for the future, we’re seeing a showdown between the two best teams in the NL West.  San Francisco leads Arizona by half a game, and they have won 22 of the last 30.

Things haven’t been that rosy for the Giants, though.  Run support has been a continued problem and the Giants did not receive more than three runs of support in any games of their 10 game home stand, yet they still managed to win 6 of them, due to their strong pitching.  The Giants are 22-5 when they give their starters more than 3 runs of support.

Matt Cain will take the mound for the Giants, and he has been good this season.  Boasting only a 5-4 record, he has a 3.36 ERA and gave up only 2 runs and 9 hits in his last 16 innings.  He strcuk out 11 batters on Wednesday as the Giants beat the Nats 3-1.

He’s also been very good against the Diamondbacks.  He’s 2-0 with a 1.98 ERA this season and has allowed only one run over his last two outings at Chase Field.  San Francisco is 5-1 against the Diamondbacks this season, but the Diamondbacks have won 10 of their last 13 at home and beat the Marlins the last 3 of a 4 game set in Florida.

“This will be a good check for us,” manager Kirk Gibson said.  “We’re looking forward to that. They’re a good team. We’re good too.”

Arizona will send the inexperienced Josh Collmenter to the mound.  The rookie has been VERY impressive.  He has a 4-1 record with a 1.12 ERA and has thrown 13 consecutive scoreless innings.  He gave up 4 hits in 5 innings in a 2-0 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, but he did not receive a decision.  Baseball Prospectus said he “might project as a fifth starter,” but certainly didn’t anticipate the success he has enjoyed so far.  It’s his first career start against the Giants, though he did make a relief appearance in which he threw two scoreless innings.

Some betting trends:

San Francisco is 8-4 SU In their last 12 games and the total has gone UNDER in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Giants are 6-3 SU in their last 9 on the road and they are 8-1 SU in their last 9 against the Diamondbacks.  The total has gone UNDER in 8 of their last 10 games against Arizona and the total has also gone UNDER in 5 of their last 7 games on the road against the Diamondbacks.  The Giants are 8-2 SU in their last 10 on the road against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona is 4-1 SU In their last 5 games and the total has gone UNDER in 4 of their last 6 at home.  The Diamondbacks are 10-3 SU in their last 13 home games and they are 1-8 SU in their last 9 against the San Francisco Giants.  The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona’s last 10 games against the Giants and it has also gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona’s last 7 games at home against the Giants.  The Diamondbacks are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games against the Giants at home.

The line is set very close between two teams that never would have imagined themselves as equals prior to the season.  Both pitchers are very good so the total is set low at 7.5.  Collmenter has held his ERA in the low 1.00s, and the Giants have struggled at the plate recently, so I favor the Diamondbacks in this one.