NL Betting Preview: NY Mets At San Francisco Giants

New York Mets (46-44) AT San Francisco Giants (51-40)
July 10th, 2011 at 8:05 PM EST
Opening Line: SF -160, NYM +140
Current Line:  SF -153, NYM +135
Opening Total: 7
Current Total:  6.5

SP:  NYM- Mike Pelfrey; SF- Matt Cain

Cain has a 3.22 ERA thus far this season

Tonight’s game closes out a 3 game set between the Mets and Giants, just before the long awaited all-star break.  With the first two games split, this game offers the victor a chance at some coveted momentum moving into the break.

The Mets will send right handed hurler Mike Pelfrey to the mound.  Pelfrey is 5-7 this season with a 4.64 ERA, but has pitched poorly on the road all season.  Last outing was an exception, however, as Pelfrey gave up only 5 hits over 6 innings, as he received a winning decision in a 6-0 victory over the L.A. Dodgers.  In his five road outings prior to that one, he lost all 4 of his decisions with a 5.16 ERA over the span.

Pelfrey is 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA in his five career starts against the Giants, and recorded a quality start last time he faced them with only 2 earned runs allowed in 7 2/3rds innings pitched.  He’s been successful against the heart of the Giants lineup, with Aaron Rowand, Pablo Sandoval, Nate Schierholtz, and Miguel Tejada combining to go 3 of 21.  Cody Ross has hit well against Pelfrey, but with a left hamstring injury has been relegated to only pinch hitting duties.

Matt Cain will take the mound for the Giants.  Cain is 7-5 with a 3.22 ERA, but he lost his last outing, giving up 5 runs in 7 innings to the poor hitting Padres.  Prior to that game, he had thrown 20 scoreless innings and it was his first loss since May 29th, a span which lasted 6 outings in which he compiled a 1.65 ERA.

In his eight starts against the Mets, Cain is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA, and he has struggled badly against Carlos Beltran (6 of 13) and Jason Bay (4 of 7, with three walks).

It’s tough to say whether it has been excellent pitching or poor hitting in this series, that is responsible for the low totals, but last night both Vogelsong and Dickey allowed only 2 runs in 7 innings, as they both picked up quality starts but did not receive a decision.  The Mets went on to take care of business against the poor work of the Giants relievers, as the Mets scored 3 runs over the final two innings to pick up the victory.

The Giants are in first place in the NL West right now and it’s the first time they have occupied such a position at the all-star break since 2003.  They are ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 full games.

“It’s encouraging,” Giants manager Bruce Bochy said. “We still have one game before the break, but it’s nice to try to wrap things up on a good note.”

The Mets are 4-2 on this road trip and their 27-22 road mark is the second best in the National League.  Carlos Beltran has managed at least 1 hit in 13 of his last 14 games and is batting .362 with 14 RBIs over that span, while Angel Pagan is .381 over his last 9 games.

Some betting trends:

The total has gone UNDER In 8 of the New York Mets’ last 10 games and the Mets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.  The Mets are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games on the road and the total has gone UNDER In 5 of the Mets’ last 7 games on the road.  The Mets are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against the San Francisco Giants and the total has gone OVER in 9 of the Mets’ last 13 road games against the Giants.  The Mets are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games against the Giants.

The total has gone OVER In 6 of the Giants’ last 8 games and they are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games.  The Giants are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games and they are 8-3 SU in their last 11 at home.  The total has gone UNDER in 15 of their last 23 home games and it has gone OVER In 4 of their last 6 home games.  The Giants are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games against the New York Mets and the Giants are 5-2 SU in their last 7 home games against the Mets.  The total has gone OVER in 9 of the Giants’ last 13 games at home against the Mets.

Given the poor offensive output of these two teams, the total was set low at 7 and has since shifted even lower to 6.5.  Is that proper?  Perhaps.  While Pelfrey has struggled on the road, he has been very good in his career thus far against the Giants, and Cain has been his usual self, with an ERA just over 3.  Still, I like the ‘over’ on this one, as I expect the Giants to get it going against Pelfrey.

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